Udinese vs SS Lazio
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Today’s free tip is in the Italian Serie A encounter at Friuli between Udinese and SS Lazio.
Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be what I’d class as an over 2.5 goals game; quite the opposite, actually. It’d be two teams that rely heavily upon their tactics, and two teams that won’t take unnecessary risks. It’s the kind of game I’d expect a 0-0 or 0-1 scoreline from, to put it bluntly. However, this is an end-of-season game, and the picture has considerably changed for both teams because of that.
At the present time, SS Lazio are still harbouring faint hopes of winning Serie A. I don’t see it happening myself, but Inzaghi won’t have them believing anything less. Let’s face it – even if they don’t, they need to keep getting points in order to stave off the threat of a seriously impressive Atalanta Bergamo to prove that this season was indeed a success rather than a bottling SS Lazio campaign, which has been the case for too many years now, something that Inzaghi is almost certainly going to change with time. By contrast, Udinese are battling to stay in Serie A, which isn’t an unusual position for them to find themselves in. Personally, I think they’ve done enough to survive but with Lecce, Genoa, and Sampdoria all playing well, and Torino only a change in style away from doing the same, Udinese cannot afford to rest on their haunches. They need to try and win this game, to be blunt. You might think they could wait for a ‘better game’ to try and win, but they’re at SSC Napoli and hosting Juventus in their next two matches. After that, it’s a trip to Sardinia, and a do-or-die encounter against Lecce at the end of the season so tonight’s game really is the best time for Udinese to try and win against a demoralised SS Lazio.
If this run has taught SS Lazio boss Inzaghi anything, it’s that he needs more depth for next season. I don’t have any issues with their quality, and I think he’s got the best out of almost all of his players this season. However, playing a game every three days is crippling them. Each week that goes by, they’re losing more players to injury. Lulic, Correa, Marusic, and Patric are amongst their absentees tonight, with Lucas Leiva likely to join them. It’s removing Inzaghi’s options, and that lessens the team’s tactical prowess. SS Lazio have shipped a lot more goals after this run of fixtures every few days, and that’s really not a coincidence – this squad wasn’t assembled to play so regularly.
SS Lazio are still better than Udinese, of course. They seldom struggle to break teams down when they want to whether it’s Milinkovic-Savic’s powerful shots or dominating aerial prowess, Immobile’s speed and skill, Parolo’s skill and vision etc. They always find ways, SS Lazio, and they’re an athletic team so getting men forward to support their attacks happens as regularly as they want it to, which is a lot in the latter stages of this campaign. SS Lazio are making more mistakes than usual at the back due to fatigue, a lack of options, and a more attacking style, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Whether they can beat Udinese or not will literally depend on how many they score because I just don’t think one goal will cut it right now.
Udinese have mostly looked good lately. They’ve been annoying me in defence, especially that unnecessary goal they shipped against Sampdoria’s Gabbiadini last time out, but generally work very well as a unit. Despite a lack of quality, for the most part, Udinese tend to find ways around teams. Ironically, they were arguably at their best in their 3-2 defeat against Atalanta Bergamo, forcing their opponents’ boss Gasperini to change his approach and personnel in order to win, and even then it took two thunderbolts from Muriel. Udinese are annoying teams, and they look more motivated now they’re in the relegation battle. This is not a team I’d underestimate right now.
True enough, as I said earlier, their defending has been annoying. Normally it’s their structure and tactics that are their strongest areas but lately it’s just been tactical. Their midfielders are everywhere; that’s why Udinese generally do alright. However, that’s not been enough to stop teams from scoring against them after a run of congested fixtures. Impressively, Udinese have actually become better in attack to compensate. Considering they don’t have a good finisher, that’s really quite something. Lasagna in particular has done marvellously late with running the channels, hounding defenders, and switching to ‘creator’ mode instead of line leader. de Paul has shown signs of stepping up now Mandragora is out too. Even target men Okaka and Nestorovski have begun weighing in with goals, and with support from their wing-back engines in mind, I think Udinese can seriously trouble SS Lazio tonight. Whether it’ll get them anything from the encounter or not is anyone’s guess, given recent displays, but I’m sure that Udinese will give as good as they get here.
Therefore, despite this match normally being an under 2.5 goals affair, I’ve got to view over 2.5 goals at 4/5 as a bit of a steal here. There’s too much motivation, and too many defensive errors for me to think otherwise.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Hartberg vs Austria Vienna
English Premier League;
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Finnish Ykkonen:
VPS vs MuSa
Italian Serie A:
Sampdoria vs Cagliari
Bologna vs SSC Napoli
AC Milan vs Parma
Lecce vs ACF Fiorentina
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona
Sassuolo vs Juventus
Udinese vs SS Lazio
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Molde FK vs Viking Stavanger
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund
Valerenga Oslo vs Haugesund
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen
Sandefjord vs Aalesund FK
Odd vs Brann Bergen
Portuguese Liga 1:
Moreirense vs Pacos de Ferreira
Sporting Braga vs Belenenses
FC Porto vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs FK Krasnodar
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Arsenal Tula
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny
Rubin Kazan vs FK Rostov
Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg
Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moscow
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg
Djurgarden vs Falkenberg
AIK Solna vs Sirius
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Sion
Lugano vs FC Thun
Young Boys Bern vs Servette
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Wil
Enjoy your free betting tips!