Paris Saint-Germain vs Metz


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Today’s free tip is in the Ligue 1 encounter in France’s capital between Paris Saint-Germain and ever un-fancied Metz. I doubt I’d ever be bold enough to back Metz to win a game of this nature but the fact remains that this is the best chance they’ve ever had of doing so, at least during ‘the billionaire years’ of Paris Saint-Germain’s existence.

Paris Saint-Germain being better than Metz is not a secret; you all know it. Under ordinary circumstances, I wouldn’t just back Paris Saint-Germain to win this game, but to do so convincingly. As much as I like plucky Metz, they’re not good enough tactically, and have a penchant for conceding far too many goals. All the visitors ever bring to their games is extraordinary levels of stamina and athleticism. However, as far as tonight’s game goes, that might just be enough to see them pick up an unlikely result.

Why? Well, simply put, Paris Saint-Germain have too many absentees here. Way too many, actually. At the start of the Ligue 1 campaign, they were missing at least seven first-team players because they had a bout of Covid-19 to deal with. Since then, some of them have returned but from those that have, there are now suspensions to deal with following a brawl at the end of their derby against Olympique de Marseille at weekend. To put it bluntly, Paris Saint-Germain are going to be without Mbappe, Neymar, Verratti, and Kurzawa for tonight’s game, which are substantial blows I’m sure you’d all agree.

Now, those absentees don’t make Paris Saint-Germain crap – let’s be clear on that. It does diminish their attacking threat massively. When I first saw them all link up in attack, I assumed the burden would be shared amongst them all at Paris Saint-Germain. However, the reality over the past couple of years is that the over-reliance has been on Mbappe, who is the one with the capacity to change the tempo of this team. Neymar, as unquestionably brilliant as he does, fades into anonymity a little too much for my liking. Being without both of them though – where will Icardi’s service come from? That doesn’t bode well for them.  It’s going to take a di Maria masterclass for them to get past Metz tonight, and although that’s certainly not impossible, it does make the home win a lot more unappetising than it usually would be.

Paris Saint-Germain are not short of midfield engines though, and their defence should be solid enough to annoy their goal-shy visitors tonight. Actually breaking Metz down and scoring, goals however – that’s not something I can trust them to do. Despite their absentees, I still think they’re more likely to win than Metz are, purely because of Metz’s lack of composure in the final third. Paris Saint-Germain without star attackers or adequate backups, though – it does nothing for me, I’m afraid!

By a curious stroke of luck, I’ve happened to end up watching both Metz games in the current campaign, and it’s been the same story each time. They’ve faced superior teams, made them work hard throughout the match, not taken their own chances, and ended up giving away a sloppy goal to lose. I can’t fault the work-rate and togetherness of this Metz team, which is laden with mentally strong footballers. However, when it comes to quality, they are lacking that something special. In the past, they’ve had Diabate or Sarr to be the missing piece of the jigsaw but there are no signs of such right now, which does make the departure of Luxembourgian wonderkid Vincent Thill all the more puzzling, in my opinion.

Metz still have the legs in attack to threaten defences though, and that’s worked really well when it’s come to dissuading teams from attacking Metz quite as much as they normally would. However, with Metz not taking the chances they’ve created, and their opponents always managing to poach one from somewhere, it’s just not working out for the eastern France outfit. I want to give them a lot of credit but they’re more resolute than ever, and at least for the present time they’re a lot more annoying to score goals against than usual. They’re lacking a goal threat though, and against a lot of midfield engines and good defenders, I can’t see tonight’s trip to Paris containing many goals for the away team.

The likelihood here is that Paris Saint-Germain will probably edge it. However, I see no value whatsoever in the 1×2 market for this affair. Instead, I’d much rather go for under 3 goals at 109/100 as I expect a myriad of frustrated footballers and poor finishing on show here.

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 109/100.

Wednesday’s Thoughts

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.

UEFA Champions League:

Ferencvaros vs Dinamo Zagreb 
Qarabagh FK vs Molde FK 
Omonia Nicosia vs Red Star Belgrade 
FC Midtjylland vs Young Boys Bern 
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Dinamo Brest 

UEFA Europa League:

Hammarby vs Lech Poznan 
B36 Torshavn vs The New Saints 
Progres Niederkorn vs Willem II 

Copa Libertadores:

Jorge Wilstermann vs Athletico Paranaense 
Colo Colo vs Penarol Montevideo 
Santos vs Olimpia Asuncion 
Deportivo Binacional vs Liga de Quito 

English League Cup:

West Bromwich Albion vs Harrogate Town
Ipswich Town vs Fulham
Leeds United vs Hull City
Southampton vs Brentford
Everton vs Salford City

Finnish Ykkonen:

KPV vs MyPa 
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Ekenas IF 
VPS vs AC Oulu 
Kajaani vs MP 
KTP vs Gnistan 
MuSa vs SJK-Akatemia 

French Ligue 1:

Paris Saint-Germain vs Metz 

Enjoy your free betting tips!

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