Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s featured game (kick-off just after 9am on Sunday!) is the Australian A-League encounter between Perth Glory and Melbourne Victory.
Glory are bad. I’m bored of watching them, to be honest. I had hoped that the early season displays they produced for Garcia would catapult them into becoming this mighty attacking force in Australia, but it’s simply not happened. They’ve become incredibly predictable, and I can’t remember the last time a team was actually surprised by them for that reason. I mean, if I told you that Glory have one of the best attacks in the A-League, and you looked at the A-League table right now, you’d think I was insane – but it’s true. Garcia simply cannot get the best out of them though. Not many playmakers at this level are as gifted as Castro, for example, and not many are better finishers than Fornaroli either. Keogh, Chianese, Ikonomidis are all really good attacking options, and I should even throw forgotten target man D’Agostino back into the fray there as he’s done well this season.
It’s always the same story when I watch Glory, though – they never, ever deviate from their failing tactics. They play with wing-backs, one of which – Ota – will never, ever go on the outside of his man. He will always cut inside, and play it safe. The other – Geria – is very good at bursting past opponents, although his final ball is a bit of a coin toss. The problem they then have, however, is that they’ve been playing Fornaroli up front on his own, and he’s not going to win anything in the air against anyone. Therefore, it makes the wing-back system somewhat redundant – unless they have clever enough link-up players to play their way around teams, which they don’t.
Castro can do it, sure – but nobody else in this squad can. Ikonomidis is a brilliant impact player, as he showed against City with a marvellous goal, but this system isn’t for him. Only Castro and Fornaroli are on the same wavelength, so they’re the only ones that can play with this intricate passing setup. Suffice to say that, with just two men doing it, not much happens. The rest of what they do is merely opportunistic, and that’s just not good enough. I could perhaps forgive it if they were good enough defensively to stop teams getting at them, or scoring against them – but they’re 100% not. Were it not for Victory’s incessant defensive injuries this season, Glory would have conceded the most goals in the competition because they changed almost all of their defence pre-season, and yet have opted to play mostly kids at the back with the likes of Langkamp injured a lot – and he is today too.
So what’s to fear about this team? I won’t deny that Castro, Ikonomidis, and Fornaroli are brilliant individuals, and can decide a game at the drop of a hat, but they need to be in the right positions to do it – and Glory seldom are. Therefore, them being priced as heavy favourites to beat a Victory team that they’ve not looked better than seems odd to me. Again, this is Australian football so nothing is impossible, but it seems bizarre. Victory have been a joke this season because of absentees, demonstrations, managerial changes – everything. Don’t let that fool you, though – they’ve improved a lot lately, and they stand a better chance of getting a positive result in Perth than the odds imply.
Victory have started fielding more kids, generally through necessity rather than anything else, but it’s been working for them. It’s not really fair to include Folami in that grouping because they signed him from a good level in England anyway, but he’s been terrific recently. Barnett in midfield, Anderson at the back, and the likes of Brooks, Lauton, and Lawrie-Lattanzio have all added tremendous energy and conviction to a rather slow and predictable Victory outfit. Subsequently, they’ve become quite awkward to play against.
I thought Victory played well enough to get something against Sydney, against all odds. I thought they were hard done to against the Mariners, with Gestede having a perfectly legitimate goal chalked off. It took a set piece for Macarthur FC to break through last time out too, just when it looked like they wouldn’t. They’re not perfect, Victory, but they’re coming on rather well. They almost seem to be thriving without their regulars and stars, you know?
Because of this speed and passion their kids have brought to the attack, suddenly Gestede is getting more chances. They’re also getting more set pieces to try and score from, and they’re generally causing more problems from open play. The relative ‘chaos’ that they bring helps bring out the best of Kamsoba – fast as hell, decent dribbler, but not a consistent end product – and Kruse, who finally doesn’t have to dive quite as much because Victory have found reasonable ways to hurt teams without taking the cowardly approach.
The above is why I’m taking Victory more seriously now. They’re still missing boatloads of stars, but they seem better without them. Alright, I think Shotton and Traore (final game of his suspension today) would improve their defence, and the “X Factor” that McManaman brings helps in the final third but other than that, Victory are in a really good place. They may be near the foot of the ladder, but for the first time this season, they look like they deserve to be higher in the table – and that’s more than I can say for their hosts.
Therefore, I’m going to boldly back the kids of Victory to get a positive result in Perth today.
Verdict: Melbourne Victory to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK vs Swarovski Tirol
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Mechelen vs KV Oostende
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb
Czechia Liga 1:
Karvina vs Slovacko
Ceske Budejovice vs Pardubice
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Prague
Sparta Prague vs Banik Ostrava
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs AGF
Brondby vs FC Midtjylland
Lyngby vs AC Horsens
Vejle vs SonderjyskE
English Premier League:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
West Ham United vs Everton
Arsenal vs West Bromwich Albion
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
Faroese Betrideildin:
KI vs B36 Torshavn
TB vs EB/Streymur
HB Torshavn vs B68 Toftir
Vikingur Gota vs IF
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski
IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS vs MP
Klubi-04 vs KPV
MuSa vs Jippo Joensuu
Ekenas IF vs Jaro Pietarsaari
French Ligue 1:
AS Saint-Etienne vs Olympique de Marseille
Angers SCO vs Dijon FCO
Metz vs Nimes Olympique
OGC Nice vs Stade Brestois
Racing Club Strasbourg vs Montpellier HSC
Stade de Reims vs AS Monaco
Stade Rennais vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05
Hertha Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld
German Bundesliga 2:
Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen
Erzgebirge Aue vs Paderborn 07
VfL Bochum vs Jahn Regensburg
Hungarian Liga 1:
Diosgyori VTK vs Fehervar
Puskas FC vs Budafoki MTE
Varda SE vs Paksi SE
Icelandic Pepsideild:
FH vs Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Netanya
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Sassuolo
Parma vs Atalanta Bergamo
Benevento vs Cagliari
Hellas Verona vs Torino
AS Roma vs Crotone
Juventus vs AC Milan
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Riteriai vs Kauno Zalgiris
Banga Gargzdai vs Panevezys
Nevezis vs Suduva Marijampole
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Emmen vs FC Groningen
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso
Molde FK vs Kristiansund
Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen
Odd vs Sandefjord
Valerenga Oslo vs Rosenborg BK
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga
Portuguese Liga 2:
Cova de Piedade vs Vizela
Arouca vs Casa Pia
Leixoes Matosinhos vs FC Porto II
Varzim vs Penafiel
Romanian Liga 1:
Universitatea Craiova vs Botosani
UTA Arad vs Politehnica Iasi
Viitorul Constanta vs Arges
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Eibar
Valencia vs Real Valladolid
Villarreal vs Celta de Vigo
Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Degerfors vs Djurgarden
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Ostersunds FK
Malmo FF vs Varberg
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sport vs FC Zurich
Luzern vs Servette
St. Gallen vs FC Sion
Enjoy your free betting tips!