Netherlands vs Denmark
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup encounter between Netherlands and Denmark. Netherlands were untouchable during the qualifiers, winning all eight games, and have played in a similar fashion in their pre-World Cup friendlies, destroying opponents at will. Denmark have looked rather poor in their recent friendlies with little to no goal threat whatsoever so I have a lot of fears for them in this World Cup.
Netherlands may be missing Robben for this game but they’re still twice the side that Denmark are. Netherlands always manage to bring goals to a game of football, irrespective of who they are facing. What I like about them most of all is their ability to share goals around the team because nobody gets an ego from being too important to the team. Even Dirk Kuyt looks good because he’s being played as a striker, you know, his natural position! Netherlands have some tremendous midfielders that are primed to have a very good tournament indeed and although Robben is one of them, the other two are Sneijder and Van Der Vaart. Both are gifted passers of the ball, have pace, the ability to beat a man, the capacity to score from range, and the technique to deliver a dangerous set piece. Those factors make the two Dutch playmakers interal to their setup and they’ve both looked good in Netherlands’ recent friendlies too. Netherlands have had an unfortunate trait of conceding against each side that they’ve faced of late but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem against a weak Danish attack today. They’ve notched up fourteen goals in their last four games and conceded four along the way so they’re looking a frightening opponent at the moment. Netherlands have an innate ability to turn up for big tournaments too so I’m placing an awful lot of faith in them ahead of their World Cup campaign.
Denmark are a well-organised unit but have so little in front of goal that it’s unreal. They’ve got some good engines in midfield so sides will have to work hard against them but when you’re boasting Bendtner as your main striking threat, you’ve then got issues. Denmark’s friendlies were very unconvincing too. An uninspiring 2-0 win at home to Senegal was followed by two abject 1-0 defeats against Australia and South Africa respectively – hardly the best defences in the world by any stretch of the imagination. I have been concerned with the Dutch defence so far but I’m not concerned having seen the impotency of the Danish attack first-hand!
Although Netherlands are capable of blowing Denmark (or indeed, the vast majority of sides in this World Cup) away today, early results in the World Cup suggests that games are going under either due to nervousness or adjusting to the new ball. As I stated previously, Netherlands are unbelievably well-organised for tournaments like this and adapt really well so I think they’ll manage it today. I’d prefer a goal in the first-half because the last thing you want to go against Denmark is give them time to dig their heels in. However, the odds are good enough to give this bet a shot at – a scoreline of 2-0 or even 3-0 is in my mind. I also like the look of Van Persie to score anytime at evens – this guy is a threat from set pieces and in general and I expect him to have a very good World Cup.
Incidentally, the last three games for Netherlands have ended 2-1, 4-1, and 6-1 in their favour. 8-1 at 500/1, anyone?!
Verdict: Netherlands to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 13/8.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Japan vs Cameroon – Japan to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
This is a risky but intriguing call. I don’t fully grasp why the bookies have placed Cameroon as favourites for this one, which is what initially awoke my interest. There’s little between the sides as their various strengths balance out quite evenly but I’d still favour the Japanese here.
Why? Well, they’re more tactically aware. They’ve struggled in their friendlies, no question – hell, they’ve lost all three of them! However, the statistics aren’t as fair as they could be here. Their defeat at home to South Korea was because of an abject display but it’s a derby – that happens. The defeat against England couldn’t have been more misleading based upon the game itself in which Japan never really looked out of control of the game – only pure misfortune (two own goals!) allowed England to win the game. Japan had a feisty game with Ivory Coast in their most recent friendly but were unable to find the goal and ultimately lost but again, the scoreline wasn’t overly reflective of the game, in my opinion. Japan are still a good side and I expect that to show today. They’re going to have to rely upon their midfield an awful lot in this game because they have to win that battle to take anything from this game. They’re well-placed to do so, however, with the creative Honda, regimented Inamoto, and experienced Nakamura in their ranks so they should be able to control midfield today with a bit of luck! They need to take their chances as their attack isn’t the best but Cameroon should give them enough opportunities to capitalise on their fairly under-strength attack today.
Why would Cameroon do that though? Well, Le Guen has decided that instead of fielding Kameni in goal, who has been there for as long as I can remember, he’s putting in an unproven thirty-seven year old goalkeeper – Hamidou. Why?! He’s nowhere near as good with his reactions, let alone his overall ability! Le Guen has also hinted at leaving out Alexandre Song, whom I don’t personally like as a player but he’s played well for Cameroon in their recent friendlies so again – why?! I’m not getting the feeling that the Cameroonian side are “all there” mentally for this game – there’s rumours of problems in the camp and the issues between Eto’o and Cameroon legend Roger Milla have been well-documented in recent weeks so I’m not convinced they’ll form a united front against Japan. Aside from the above, Cameroon’s biggest weakness is scoring goals, although the gradual emergence of experienced striker Webo at international level does concern me a little. Either way, for all of Cameroon’s energy and stamina across the park, they’re going to be lacking a little experience from what Le Guen has said and one thing they hate playing against is an organised defence, which is what Japan have.
With the above in mind, I’d recommend backing Japan at draw no bet with low stakes. This should be a close game but I have to favour the organised Asians over the sporadic Africans today.
Verdict: Japan to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Italy vs Paraguay – under 1.5 goals at 6/4.
This one speaks for itself, really. Both sides have been poor in recent friendlies, Italy haven’t prepared enough for this World Cup and have aged massively. Lippi’s response to his side being too old was hilarious! I believe it was something along the lines of “Well, there are one or two sides older than us in the competition” – well, I’m convinced(!)
Italy offer such a little amount in front of goal nowadays that it’s unreal. Even a vaguely samba-esque Paraguayan defence shouldn’t be too troubled by the slow Italians. Italy haven’t scored more than once in a game in their last five games, losing to a Mexican second-string, and drawing 1-1 with an impotent Swiss side in what could easily be labelled as the worst game of football that the world has ever seen. Italy are frighteningly bad and their increasing dependancy upon experienced playmaker Pirlo is all too apparent now that he’s injured. However, it’s ok because Montolivo says he can fill the boots of Pirlo. My response to that is “No, you can’t”. I like Montolivo – he’s got a good level of ability and he can make things happen but he is certainly not good enough to replace Pirlo. Italy waste so much time passing from side to side that I can’t see them creating anything against a decent Paraguay side! I can’t even view evens as a good set of odds for an Italy win here because I just don’t think they will unless they convert a set piece and sit on it!
Paraguay are capable of winning this game themselves against an ageing Italian defence. However, for all of Paraguay’s excellent strikers, they do have a bit of a lack of pace in comparison to other sides and pace is what the Italian defence is most vulnerable to so they may draw blanks today. Paraguay have too few individuals in midfield who can open the Italians up and spark a move off for Paraguay so I have concerns over their quest to score too. Frankly, I think Paraguay would take a draw from this game anyway but if they have any adventure about them then they should go all out and try to score because Italy have seldom looked as weak as they do now.
Ultimately, I’m expecting a tactical nightmare of a game between these two. I’m really not fancying many goals to be scored here at all, if indeed any. I expect a similar level of boredom to arise as the one that arose during Slovenia vs Algeria yesterday but of a higher quality level, hence backing under 1.5 goals instead of under 0.5 goals. Either way, this bet looks to have value, particulary after a whole host of unders in the opening World Cup games thus far.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Netherlands, Breidablik Kopavogur, Valur Reykjavik, Keflavik.
Recommended bets:
Netherlands, Breidablik Kopavogur, Valur Reykjavik, and Keflavik at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup:
Netherlands vs Denmark (8) -1.75 handicap
Japan vs Cameroon (5) 1-0
Italy vs Paraguay (4) 0-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Tampere United vs TPS Turku (5) 1-0
Inter Turku vs VPS Vaasa (6) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs OPS Oulu (7) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Valur Reykjavik vs Selfoss (8) over 2.5 goals
Keflavik vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (8) 2-0
Breidablik Kopavogur vs UMF Grindavik (8) 2-0
Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (7) over 2.5 goals
FH Hafnarfjordur vs KR Reykjavik (6) both sides to score
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Home United (5) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!