TFT Issue 3240!

TPS vs RoPS 

KO: 16:30  (UK time)

I’m sorry, but TPS being odds-on to beat any Veikkausliiga team is a fucking joke. Honestly. The league table is as it is because RoPS were without their only two good goal-scorers for the majority of this campaign, both of which are now back. I’d give TPS a slight edge on paper, but there’s nowhere near the gulf between them that the bookies think here. TPS could win the game 10-0 and my opinion would not change, either. There’s absolutely zero justification for TPS being priced as short as this, and I almost feel compelled to oppose them for it.

I can’t honestly say that either team is going to be able to avoid relegation this season because I simply don’t believe it. RoPS are headstrong enough but lack quality and time to rescue themselves whereas TPS simply aren’t effective enough. Haka Valkeakoski may make mistakes but they at least score goals regularly so you just know that they’re not going to drop enough points for either team to catch them. In my opinion, the only thing that still needs to be decided in the Veikkausliiga relegation battle is which of these two teams automatically goes down, and which gets a chance in the play-offs.

I really do favour RoPS today though. Even if I gloss over the shockingly short odds on the home win for just a second, I still think RoPS are playing better than TPS right now. Sure, back-to-back 4-0 defeats will have you laughing at that statement, I’m sure, but it’s perfectly true. There’s no shame in getting battered by good teams like FC Lahti and HJK, two very good teams. Before that it was KuPS, FC Honka Espoo, and SJK too. Is it any wonder their run of form looks so depressing? Those teams are simply beyond a very youthful RoPS side; that’s the brutal reality of the situation. RoPS will find it far easier to win games when the Veikkausliiga splits into two groups, which will be in the next fortnight or so – that’s when they’ll start to show their improvements more in the format of the form guide.

For now, you’ll just have to take my word for it – or not, if you wish – that RoPS have improved a lot since Rahimi and Kokko returned. There’s no escaping the fact that this is still a very weak team. That was to be expected after their financial problems were disclosed pre-season, leading to a real lack of recruitment possibilities, hence the late flurry of HJK loanees rocking up in the far north. They’ve also shown Kompalla and Kuate the door throughout the course of the season so this is a thin squad. It’s one that really does deserve to be relegated, much as it pains me to say it because I’ve always had a soft spot for RoPS. They’ve taken too many risks this season though, and it’s going to burn them – barring a miracle.

The above does not make them a lot worse than TPS though. I think the RoPS kids are maturing all of the time, especially Kaukua, Degerman, and Niska. That, fused with Vahtera and Malolo in midfield, who konw the division well enough by now, and experienced forwards like Kokko and Rahimi back in the equation, makes it just as likely that RoPS will get something positive from their trip to Turku as TPS. I just don’t see an inferiority here, sorry. They’re both as bad as each other with the difference that RoPS actually have good finishers in their squad now, something which TPS – still without Espinosa – do not.

If you cast your minds back a couple of months, Johansson’s first game in charge of TPS was against RoPS in Rovaniemi. At that time, RoPS were without key defender Tsiskaridze, their two mainstay forwards Rahimi and Kokko, and were about to cut Kompalla loose. Despite that, and despite the new manager ‘bounce’ of Johansson arriving, TPS still needed a lot of luck to win the game 3-2. They were not at all impressive, and it took Peraaho’s first goal for TPS from a deep cross to secure the points. I saw nothing in that game to make me think that TPS are better than RoPS, and RoPS have only gotten stronger since then.

TPS have improved in attack under Johansson, largely through pushing more men forward, but now also defend far worse than they used to. They’ve simply gone with butchers at the back, and let them entirely alone, opting to focus moreso on attacking. I do like young Haarala that joined in midfield; he’s been a breath of fresh air. It’s been nice to see Pyyhtia maturing like he has too. This squad is more about kids than experienced players though, and that says a lot for a team that are supposed to be heavy favourites here. Their best player – Strasser – can’t get a kick, and his complete absence from the squad makes me wonder if he’s actually been cut loose.  Aaritalo has not been a good player for some years now; just a dedicated servant of the club. Olawale is possible the most overrated forward I’ve ever seen playing at this level; couldn’t hit a barn door, for the most part. Johansson may have improved the effectiveness of the attack as a whole, but individually he’s still working with Ykkonen level players, to be frank.

Again – I just don’t understand the odds here. Even if TPS somehow manage to better RoPS, I still don’t accept that there’s a gulf between these two teams – because there isn’t. With the above in mind, backing RoPS to avoid defeat at 23/20 looks a steal to me.

Verdict: RoPS to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20. 

St. Pauli vs Nurnberg 

KO: 19:30  (UK time)

Winning in Hamburg can be very annoying because you never truly know which St. Pauli will turn up. Honestly, they’re the most random side in the German Bundesliga 2, and that really is saying a lot. Sometimes they look really passionate and effective, especially in Hamburg derbies, but often they look like they’ve never seen one another play before. In general, I do try to avoid their games where I can for that reason.

I can’t accept that Nurnberg are underdogs to beat them tonight though, not after their pre-season acquisitions. At the very least, the visitors should be level-pegging to win this one. St. Pauli may win the game, as is always a possibility in football, but there’s no rhyme nor reason in trusting them to do it. They’ve generally been flayed open way too easily this season, and looking at their defence, it’s not hard to see why. I do like that they’ve managed to convince Burgstaller to play for them, though. The Bundesliga always looked beyond him to me, but the Bundesliga 2 should be just perfect for the Austrian attacker. With him, powerhouse Makienok, and rapid Kyereh, St. Pauli do have a very presentable attack.

It’s one I cannot quite trust yet though. Before I trust them to flourish, I need Miyaichi back from injury, which he’s not. The service into St. Pauli’s forwards is a bit too easily denied by the right teams. A new-look Heidenheim and rusty VfL Bochum may not have managed it, but SV Sandhausen did, and they’re not even trying to defend this season! I believe Nurnberg can stifle the hosts here too; they’re good enough, especially with Sorensen and Handwerker impressing as they are.

It’s the Nurnberg attack that convinces me the most, though. They’ve done some bloody brilliant business pre-season, and considering that they nearly got relegated last season, it was highly necessary to do so. Now having Singh to help out Hack, Dovedan, and Geis in midfield is perfection, as the Kiwi brings more direct running and dribbling than the other trio. In attack, towering striker Schaffler joined after an impressive stint at Wehen Wiesbaden last season. He’s yet to feature through injury but should be able to debutise tonight, and you all saw what a difference a good target man made for Karlsruher SC versus a superior SV Sandhausen recently! Let’s not overlook Misidjan either. Injured for way too long, it’s true, but such a talented dribbler; he can really make a splash this season.

Although not yet confirmed by boss Klauss, a few days ago he was ‘optimistic’ that Schaffler would finally make his debut here, as I alluded to above. That would make a significant difference for Nurnberg as they’ve created lots of chances this season without necessarily scoring enough to win. It cost them against a Palsson-less Darmstadt 98 last time out too, which tells a story all by itself, really. There’s an abundance of quality in the Nurnberg squad now though, which I like a lot. They look set for a promotion push, assuming they can get some consistency. The squad is good enough, and it feels more determined than the one before it. If they can fuse the two, starting tonight, they should have a good campaign.

My sole concern here is that St. Pauli may end up wanting it more than Nurnberg as the visitors are still getting used to life with new faces, and the realistic expectation of them winning most games. Energy is paramount to winning in Hamburg. If they have it, then backing Nurnberg to win with draw no bet cover at 83/100 is a steal. If they don’t, then we’re all in trouble!

Verdict: Nurnberg to win with draw no bet at 83/100. 

Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

I have nothing but a deep loathing for Leeds United, but I do love that Bielsa is in the Premier League. He adds such a fascinating quality and style of attacking football that any league only benefits from his presence. Athletic Club in Spain have never been the same since he left, either. He’s a remarkable manager, and his teams will always have a chance solely because of him.

Ordinarily, I’d think that Wolverhampton Wanderers would be able to nullify a newly-promoted team, home or away, and win if they felt in the mood to actually attack. However, against a driven, confident, and bold Leeds United side, I’m not so sure. That’s only fuelled by the uncertain displays that the Midlands club have shown this season too. Tactically speaking, this is an incredibly fascinating affair as I’ve no idea who will come out on top of it. Even if the game ends 0-0, I’m still extremely curious to see how the match actually plays out. Wolverhampton Wanderers are definitely the more organised, consistent team, but Leeds United are far more creative and intense. I just can’t split them.

I do like the idea of backing goals in such a game, though. Leeds United are a magnet for goals anyway, both scoring and conceding them, and adding Brazilian winger Raphinha is only going to enhance such, assuming he settles. Leeds United are fast, they move the ball quickly and directly, and they’re good in front of goal. They’re a team worthy of respect under Bielsa, that’s for sure. However, it could be argued that Wolverhampton Wanderers are at their best when they’re being attacked as their entire game-plan is centred around sitting back and countering; that’s what they love to do. Even without Jota, they’re still good at it. Again, I just don’t know which way this one will go.

I don’t think either team looks assured at the back right now though, and both are more than capable in front of goal. Additionally, both teams have managers that are capable of making decisive substitutions to change the game so I think there’ll always be scope for goals in this game, so I’m happy to back over 2.5 goals at evens.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens. 

Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro 

KO: 00:00  (UK time)

The odds are drifting on an Atletico Mineiro win here, which I find intriguing. I’m certainly not an advocate of opposing Bahia teams at home because they work harder than most at this level. However, Atletico Mineiro love to play against teams like this because of the space they’re afforded so I’m struggling to understand the odds drift unless they know something I don’t on the team news front.

People could be confused by the absentees list for the visitors, I suppose. A number of outlets I’ve seen have listed Alonso, Savarino, and Franco as absentees because of international duty, but that’s patently untrue. All the others that were on international duty featured in yesterday’s Serie A games, and thus the afore-mentioned trio are eligible to play in Bahia tonight. It’s nice for Sampaoli to have a few more attacking options available to him; they did miss that particular luxury against Fluminense. However, it’s far better to have Alonso back as their defence looks a lot better with him in it, not that they’re particularly good at defending either way!

To put it bluntly though, I expect a more convincing Atletico Mineiro to turn up tonight. Let’s also not forget that they’ve just splashed a lot of money on Argentinian creator Zancho, yet another fine addition to an already laden Atletico Mineiro attack. Teams in Brazil are simply not going to be able to stop them anymore. Their defence may still concede, but this attack is the only one capable of emulating Flamengo’s at the moment. Imagine how good it’ll be when Marrony gets his confidence back! Honestly, people can bleat about RB Bragantino all they want to; Atletico Mineiro, under Sampaoli’s reign, are pure dynamite – and they should prove it here.

Press the visitors all you want to; they’ll deal with it. Few teams in Serie A are faster and more effective on counters than they are. Matching Bahia for stamina is a tall order, but being more clinical than them is straightforward enough for the top teams, which Atletico Mineiro are well on the way to becoming. They’ve had five days to prepare for this fixture, and are almost at full-strength. I can’t see a reason to doubt Atletico Mineiro here, really.

I do love Bahia though; I cannot hide that. The pluck and stamina they consistently show is unrivalled at this level, barring when bitter rivals Vitoria make one of their semi-frequent visits to Serie A. There’s something about this area that makes teams naturally combative, and it makes them annoying to play against. Even with ten men last time out, they were still annoying the hell out of Goias, and equalised at the end after a lucky punt from Fessin from outside the box took a deflection and went in. Nothing gets Bahia down, really. If you attack them, they’ll attack you back. They’re a very good ‘mirror’ team, if that makes sense, always able to match the tactics of their opponents.

What Bahia lack, however, is quality. Nothing new there, I’m afraid. The last good player in this squad is Elias, who has been getting into the squad of late, allowing Bahia to scale a higher level of play. Most of Bahia’s squad are about work-rate and speed, though – that’s a staple requirement of a team from this region. As much as they enjoy giving top teams a good game though, they do seldom come out on top. I’ve seen them do it against Corinthians, Internacional, Flamengo, and others, bagging at least two goals per game – but never winning. They can attempt to mirror Atletico Mineiro all they want to tonight, but they simply don’t have the firepower to match the Belo Horizonte side; that’s the truth of the matter.

As satisfying as their last-gasp draw at Goias last time out unquestionably was, it came at a cost with both Rossi and Elber seeing red (one wasn’t even on the pitch at the time!), meaning they’re banned for tonight’s match. That limits their attacking capacity considerably, which is particularly detrimental against a free-scoring Belo Horizonte side. On top of that, bear in mind the fatigue they’ll have from playing a game with ten men, and doing so just three days ago, which affords them two less days than Atletico Mineiro to prepare here. I think this will be an uphill struggle for Bahia, and although I don’t doubt their capability to play a part here, I can only see Atletico Mineiro winning it.

Therefore, I’m all over the away win at 4/5.

Verdict: Atletico Mineiro to win at 4/5.