TFT Issue 3250!

AA Gent vs TSG Hoffenheim

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

I know TSG Hoffenheim aren’t prioritising the UEFA Europa League at the moment, but they’re happy enough to introduce players from the bench to change games in their favour, which is enough for me here. On top of that, star Croatian attacker Kramaric is back, and has made the trip to Belgium, which is a big boost as he’s the only one of their forwards I actually trust to deliver on a regular basis.

Most of what I like about TSG Hoffenheim this season stems from boss Hoeneb though. They’ve been a bit poor for a few years now, TSG Hoffenheim, at least when evaluating performances vs potential. They’ve always looked a step behind, TSG Hoffenheim, at least until Hoeneb joined. They now look more modern, and better prepared for what their opponents have to offer. No, they’re not perfect, and I doubt they’ll be competing for silverware any time soon, but they look more capable of upsetting teams now than they have in a while. It’s a little bit like the Arsenal situation in England, really – they just look more modern, and thus more capable of dealing with what’s thrown at them.

I still think that plenty of changes need to be made in this squad in general though. I want to see a proper playmaker, a proper poacher, the young Danes out wide to develop, and the club to bring in defenders that aren’t injured all of the time. Still, their problems are considerably less apparent when compared to those of their hosts. With all due respect to AA Gent, I don’t believe it’ll take a particularly compelling TSG Hoffenheim display in order for the Germans to win tonight. All they need to do is maintain their high press, and take their chances. The result will naturally come if they do that.

It’s a shame for AA Gent because, as ever, the potential is there for them to be a good team. Their managerial situation is a joke though, honestly. What happened with Boloni – I just can’t forgive them for it. I don’t think it can be considered a surprise that de Decker is yet to get the best out of this team. I mean, how can any of them have any faith in the project when nobody seems to know what it is, or where it’s heading? They’ve been poor for weeks now, AA Gent, including in their Monday night defeat against Racing Genk. Why anything more would be expected of them tonight, I don’t know.

Again, they have a good squad on paper; one that is capable of pushing for the Eerste Klasse title. I can’t see how it’s going to happen though. There’s not enough togetherness, familiarity, consistency, nor fitness in this squad for my liking. Aside from that, a manager has come in without having a transfer window to work with so he’s basically doing a job with other managers’ players, which is seldom a good recipe. There are far too many questions about AA Gent right now, and nowhere near enough answers. It’s hard for me to take them seriously when they’re in a position like this.

Therefore, I’ve got to regard odds of 9/10 on the away win as a good value bet here.

Verdict: TSG Hoffenheim to win at 9/10.

CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Zagreb

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

A vibrant, young CSKA Moscow side against one of the less impressive Dinamo Zagreb teams I’ve seen should really only produce one winner here. I do think that experience is a potential stumbling block, however. In some of their bigger games of 2020, CSKA Moscow have failed to impress for one reason or another, mostly because of inconsistency.

Still, with Dzagoev back – not someone I’m a fan of, but someone who is clearly important to the other players – and Akinfeev between the sticks, the Russians should have enough experience to treat the Croatian champions with the respect they deserve whilst also having the confidence to inspire those around them. It needs to be that way, too, especially in Akinfeev’s case because Nababkin is still out, Schennikov is a doubt, and Fuchs hasn’t kicked a ball in months now. They need to stay strong for one another. It’s not hard to defend against Dinamo Zagreb if you keep your concentration levels up. If they do that, the Croatian champions will not score tonight; it’s that simple.

Pleasingly, CSKA Moscow are playing well at the moment. They’ve won three from their past four games, bagging eleven goals along the way despite none of their strikers impressing. I don’t know what has upset Chalov, whether it’s failed moves abroad or the signing of Gaich, but he doesn’t look himself. Gaich himself is still yet to bag his first goal for his new club! Goncharenko’s style is not about over-relying on strikers, though – it’s about midfield-driven dominance, and CSKA Moscow have an amazing midfield, despite it being mostly rather young.

This midfield is led by the brilliant Vlasic, who will be desperate to impress against the bitter rivals of his boyhood club Hajduk Split tonight. He’s unplayable when he’s in his present mode too, either laying chances on for the others, or blasting shots in from range. Kuchaev has been their standout player alongside him this season though, much to my surprise, given that Sigurdsson, Oblyakov, Bistrovic, and Akhmetov were far more impressive over the past year or two. Bijol too, actually, although he’s gone off on a German adventure. Even Kazakhstan’s Zainutdinov arrived with more to offer than Kuchaev though, and yet it’s their homegrown talent that has struck yet again. This really is a golden generation of CSKA Moscow kids, honestly.

Their change in fortunes has come about because Nigeria’s Ejuke joined from SC Heerenveen though. No, he’s not the next Finidi George but he lends the attack a natural speed and dribbling that it lacks. In the past, that role was filled by Ahmed Musa, who played it well enough to convince Leicester City that he was worth buying, which was hilarious and bizarre in equal measure. It doesn’t really matter who it is; CSKA Moscow need a fast wide player to stay unpredictable, and they have found one. Ironically, Musa himself has just been cut loose from his contract in the Middle East. It’ll be interesting to see if CSKA Moscow move to bring him back to Russia as a backup. 

But yeah – I like where CSKA Moscow are at right now. Their squad balance is good, their attacking is dynamic, and they’re scoring goals for fun. I still think Fernandes is one of the most underrated full-backs in Europe; such a talent when getting forward. Everything about Goncharenko’s side feels very positive and progressive though. He’s a good manager, and he’s got a very good squad, so I am happy to take my chances on the home team here.

Dinamo Zagreb have not done enough to impress me over the past year or so. I still trust them to dominate Croatian football because they’re the best team from that country, and because they wield a power behind the scenes that no other Prva Liga club can even dream about having. Dinamo Zagreb dominating Croatian football cannot ever be considered a surprise for that reason, though, nor can it be considered telling. It’s a given, really. You can only evaluate how good a Dinamo Zagreb squad is by what they do in Europe, and this Dinamo Zagreb squad is lacking flair.

In the past, they’ve always had flair players, Dinamo Zagreb, whether it’s Fernandes, Soudani, or more recently, Olmo. I thought Kadzior did well in Olmo’s stead last season too, but he’s since moved to Eibar. For the first time, Dinamo Zagreb have not found a suitable replacement. They’ve got good target men, and excellent central midfielders, not to mention some very solid defenders. I love that they’ve taken a chance on Denmark’s Lauritsen too, who was very impressive at IFK Norrkoping in Sweden, particularly with scoring headers from corners. They’ve got a solid shot stopper in Livakovic, and a great sitting midfielder in Ademi. 

However, this team does not have a natural flair player. They try to outsmart opponents, Dinamo Zagreb, and that comes naturally to them in the Prva Liga so I get it. This is not a team that I can trust to do well in Europe though. They may contain teams for a while, but scoring a goal only takes a second, and with things as they currently are, it’s hard to imagine Dinamo Zagreb getting back into games after falling behind. Scoring against them is annoying, it’s true, but Vlasic can make it happen, and what will Dinamo Zagreb do then? CSKA Moscow are no great shakes at defending, but the away team offer too little going forward to worry me. Other than from set pieces, I just don’t see what Dinamo Zagreb bring to the UEFA Europa League.

Therefore, I have to trust in a far more potent CSKA Moscow side doing enough to win this game at evens. 

Verdict: CSKA Moscow to win at evens.

Lille OSC vs Celtic

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

I feel like people are expecting Lille OSC to hammer Celtic here, and I don’t think that’s likely. Lille OSC beat Sparta Prague 4-1 last week, which on paper looks like a massacre, but it wasn’t. The French team controlled the game, for the most part, but most goals they scored were borne out of defensive errors, whether it was Heca’s fault for not keeping out straightforward headers, or whether it was their defender’s fault for passing the ball straight to Yazici whilst Heca was out of goal. For the most part, I found it an interesting contest; one that Lille OSC deserved to win, but the scoreline was more about their ruthless finishing and opponents’ mistakes than anything else.

That’s the thing – Lille OSC are not the kind of team to go around blitzing opponents. Galtier’s team does play lovely attacking football – but only until they have the lead. After that, they’re happy to retreat into a more patient setup in which they try to coax opponents out of their shells in order to launch devastating counterattacks. They’re very clever, Lille OSC, and very good at what they do, but to think of them as they kind of team that goes around actively trying to bag three or four goals per game (like their recent form guide implies) would be inaccurate. 

Instead, try viewing them as a supreme tactical side. They’re still missing a centre-back to replace Gabriel, but other than that, they’re in a great place, Lille OSC. Galtier has put together a bit of everything really, whether it’s aggression for rougher customers, classy finishing for tough games, fast attackers for games under the cosh, and committed midfielders for when their opponents are energetic. They really do have the lot, Lille OSC, and should be taken very seriously. I think they’re the best French team competing in Europe right now because they work hard, they prepare for their opponents, and they play intelligently – three things that Paris Saint-Germain can seldom say. Lille OSC look smart; that’s the best way I can put it.

Sparta Prague didn’t park the bus against Lille OSC last week. To their credit, they had a go. There’s not a chance Celtic will be as adventurous here, knowing the benefits of a draw. They’re going to go to France and park the bus because it’s their best chance of getting something. To be fair, it’s the style that Lille OSC struggles the most with, even though they do tend to ultimately find a way through. Lennon is under intense pressure as Celtic boss; I don’t see him risking this game being a third defeat from four for The Hoops, really. I think he’ll prioritise the draw, and try to get back to winning ways against Aberdeen at weekend. 

They’re not particularly good at most things nowadays, Celtic, but they do always have a sense of togetherness, and a work-rate that makes them annoying to deal with. They do have two very good finishers on their books in Edouard and Ajeti, and a very good wide threat in Elyounoussi. I’ve got high hopes for Soro in midfield too; I’ve liked him since I saw him playing in a golden Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv crop a few years back. Mostly, this team is very average though, purely there for work-rate and energy. That’s not enough for Europe, as a partially interested AC Milan discovered in Glasgow last week.

I do think that Celtic’s style will make them hard to beat tonight, but I don’t see a lot that they can contribute to upset their hosts. Having said that, the odds on the home win are too short for me here. I recognise how annoying Celtic can be, and that Lille OSC are not perfect. The bookies have sized this one up correctly, at least from a 1×2 perspective, and I think the Scots will make the game an interesting battle of wills. I can’t see it being a classic, though – more about Lille OSC trying to break them down really, which will generally take them some time to achieve.

For me though, especially keeping in mind that both teams are playing every three days with limited depth in their respective squads, backing under 2.5 goals at evens makes a lot of sense here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Red Star Belgrade vs Slovan Liberec

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

Although I think that Slovan Liberec have made really good changes for their domestic campaign, I’m yet to be convinced that they’ve got enough about them to impress in Europe. I think that their preparation took a serious knock with the temporary postponement of the Czech Republic Liga 1 campaign because of Covid-19 too. A lot of their newbies have had less opportunities to integrate, and until last week, hadn’t even kicked a ball in nearly a month. Fair enough – they overcame AA Gent. In the situation they’re in though, I expect most teams to beat AA Gent, so I’m not going to read too much into such.

I thought that they were just beginning to click when the league was stopped too, frustratingly enough. They made some seriously good pre-season signings, most of which arrived from Slavia Prague, and were set for a top four finish, in my opinion. They might well still be. Their cohesion is not what it should be for tough European encounters though. Again, I think this team can do very well when playing Czech teams but European football looks a bit beyond them. Some of them are experienced enough to know what it’s like to play at this level but a lot of them aren’t. That, coupled with a tough trip to Serbia, does not make me believe in Slovan Liberec here.

This is the best Red Star Belgrade team I’ve seen in a lot of years now. They’ve made seriously good signings over the past two years, one of which involved bringing Kanga back to the club after his spell at Sparta Prague, so he should be able to provide as much inside information as boss Stankovic would like here. It’s not like he’s doing much else at the moment, anyway – he’s not been on the pitch in weeks! In a lesser Red Star Belgrade squad, that would be a big issue, but not for this team. They look capable of dealing with such.

There’s simply a very good balance to this Red Star Belgrade side that I like a lot. There were more than a few glimpses of it in Germany last week, and I expect more of the same in tonight’s home game. With experienced Italian target man Falcinelli and rapid Comoros forward Ben Nabouhane, not to mention Boakye in reserve, Red Star Belgrade have good line leaders and good goal-scorers. Midfielder Katai is brilliant in front of goal too, and he’s been set free because Sanogo is parked in front of the back four, and although he’s a bit aggressive at times, he still does his job well. Ivanic has been amongst the goals, and both Nikolic and Gavric have impressed this season too, who are the two latest youngsters to impress at the club. With Gajic holding their back four together too, and a Serbian legend now managing the team, everything feels very positive at Red Star Belgrade. As I said above, it’s the best setup of theirs I’ve seen in years, and one I trust a lot.

Not only do they control games well, Red Star Belgrade, but they also threaten their opponents’ goal whether on the break or from open play. This is not an easy side to face, and it’s one that Slovan Liberec really needed to build their cohesion in order to face. I think we’ll see a hard-fought affair in Serbia tonight, but it’s one that the home team should really win.

Verdict: Red Star Belgrade to win at 83/100.

Granada CF vs PAOK Salonika

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I warned you all not to underestimate Granada CF last week, and not to overestimate PSV Eindhoven. Hopefully you heeded that advice. Tonight, I’m saying that Granada CF are only human, and that PAOK Salonika should not be treated as anything but a very good Greek opponent. Truth be told, PAOK Salonika should be playing UEFA Champions League football right now but they unusually lost their focus against FK Krasnodar. 

It’s nice to see a Spanish team taking the UEFA Europa League seriously at the group stage though. I appreciate that they’ve got nothing else to play for in general, Granada CF, but they’ve given a shit from the start, and I like that. They’ve got a good, hard-working squad with lots of experience. I like how they’re equally as good at attacking as they are at defending; it helps to make them less predictable for opposing teams. I mean, how many can be as silky on the ball as they can whilst also booting their opponents when the referee’s back is turned? They’re part of a new-wave of Spanish football teams, Granada CF, one that prioritises intelligent play over outplaying their opponents. Atletico Madrid first had that idea, Real Madrid then made it work, and now you’ve got teams like Getafe CF and Granada CF that only play this way.

Despite a constant string of injuries, Granada CF look remarkably good. Their line-up has changed a lot over the  weeks and yet they’ve still churned out very efficient displays, both at home and away. They’ve got some very underrated players in their squad like Machis, Gonalons, Kenedy, and Herrera, whilst also possessing veterans like Soldado (absent tonight) and Molina for when the situation requires composure. Martinez has basically assembled a team that can do everything; play good football, piss opponents off, and take chances. It’s by no means a perfect team, and they do tend to concede a token goal in most matches they play in, but they’re very strong mentally, and everybody in their squad gives a lot. What more can you really ask for?

I do regard PAOK Salonika as the better team but this is a bad time to face Granada CF so there’s nothing about the 1×2 market that is alluring to me here. That’s especially true with PAOK Salonika having been frustrated by other good tactical sides like AEK Athens and Omonia Nicosia lately. I do think that Ferreira has made good changes at the club, especially in recent times with Akpom leaving. Signing players like Murg and Schwab under the radar too – it’s very clever for a team that has the capacity to spend more money. He’s signed players that fit into their style of playing, and that aren’t big enough names to simply not give a shit. 

Everything about PAOK Salonika – barring their crazy owner – is very measured. They’re an extremely creative group that keeps the ball well. Whether out wide of through the middle, they will find ways past defenders, and they usually score from it. Their defence plus covering midfielders do look a little too slow for my liking, which is why teams do usually find a way to score against PAOK Salonika, even if it’s only once. All in all though, this is a very impressive side that has clearly learnt a lot of lessons from the team to have dominated Greek football for a long time now, Olympiakos Piraeus. They’re not a team to be taken lightly, PAOK Salonika.

Bluntly put, I expect an interesting tactical battle between two similar teams here. I slightly favour the visitors but there’s not much in it. From a value perspective, I believe that backing both teams to score at 9/10 is the way to go here.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

Real Sociedad vs SSC Napoli

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Do check the line-ups before getting involved here, folks. My inference is that it’ll be Real Sociedad’s first-team up against a merger of SSC Napoli’s “A” and “B” teams, and if that’s the case, the Spaniards should not lose.

I do get a bit frustrated when watching the Basque team trying to break opponents down nowadays. It’s like they’re not expecting to come up against it, even though a lot of Spanish teams have now adopted the approach of sitting back and countering. I remember watching them struggle to hurt Valencia CF at home a while back for the same reason. Valencia CF only had to make a couple of changes, push Gaya further forward, and then boom – 1-0 to the visitors on the break, and it stayed that way. For all of their ball possession, Real Sociedad seldom hurt Valencia CF, and it’s not the first time I’ve seen them have that issue.

However, as a whole, I do like what Real Sociedad are doing. They control the midfield well, and they probe defences, looking for weaknesses. I still think they need to reinstate Willian Jose as the designated finisher in order to achieve maximum effectiveness because there’s far too many drifters in this squad as it is. Yes, it makes for pleasant viewing, watching all of these talented creators switch positions during the game, catching defenders out etc. but what’s the point if nothing happens because of it? They’re very silky and creative, Real Sociedad, but sometimes they do need to be that bit more direct.

I like most elements of this squad though, as I said above. They’re lacking in defence, but what’s new? When they conscientiously sign the former backup goalkeeper of bitter rivals Athletic Club as their number one, and bring in French defenders with little experience of the Spanish game, I don’t think that they can really grumble when they concede goals. The only one that knows what he’s doing in that Real Sociedad defence is Monreal, and he’s not able to play as often nowadays for obvious reasons. I think they’d be better protected if Illarramendi could go five minutes without getting injured but that doesn’t appear to be forthcoming.

Instead, the focus is on attacking in this Real Sociedad squad, and that makes sense to me. They are good at it, especially against teams that lack defensive discipline. SSC Napoli don’t normally have that problem,  but then again, I don’t expect Gattuso to name their strongest side here, which should afford the home team enough space to ‘do their thing’, if you will. They’ve got enough flair and finesse to make it count, especially with David Silva acting as a link-up man for them now, and if SSC Napoli do indeed rotate, there’s no way Real Sociedad should lose this match.

I do like what Gattuso has done at SSC Napoli though. I can’t explain why he can manage well there but nowhere else, or why the Neapolitans relate to him as they do, but it works. It simply works. These players give a shit when they’re playing for Gattuso, and that’s all SSC Napoli really need in order to stay competitive. I can’t say I’m blown away by their transfer moves over the past couple of years, mind you. It seems to me like they’re parting ways with good players without really replacing them, and those that they’re bringing in are borne out of media reports rather than scouting reports. I mean, Lozano? Osimhen? I’m open to being proven wrong, and I appreciate Lozano has had a good campaign thus far, but these are not players I see doing a sterling job for SSC Napoli in years to come.

There’s a lot of energy in the SSC Napoli midfield nowadays, and a good nucleus in defence with Koulibaly, Manolas, and soon enough, Rrahmani to call upon. They’re not easy to beat, SSC Napoli, that’s for sure. I like their finesse via Mertens and Insigne too. Again, with their first-team, I’d consider backing them to win this game because they’re smart enough to contain their hosts, and counter them at breakneck speed. It’s just that, based on the team selected in their depressing defeat against Covid-19 ridden AZ Alkmaar last week, I have to believe that the Italians couldn’t care less about the UEFA Europa League at this stage, and if that is indeed the case, then they won’t name a strong enough line-up tonight to truly showcase what they’re capable of.

Without their best players, all of SSC Napoli’s work-rate, strong core, and finesse dissipates, and becomes random flurries of speed, skill, and disjointed movement. One SSC Napoli is very impressive; the best I’ve seen since Sarri was there. The other SSC Napoli is depressing, reminiscent of the team that was in Serie B. Again, checking the line-ups tonight is paramount here because it’s night and day, the difference between SSC Napoli’s “A” and “B” teams. If they name a weaker squad, they’re in trouble, and that’s what I have to assume they’ll do tonight.

Therefore, I’m on Real Sociedad with draw no bet at 9/10 – unless I see a line-up that I don’t like. 

Verdict: Real Sociedad to win with draw no bet at 9/10.