I’ve seen some folk backing AS Monaco here, which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Paris Saint-Germain seldom struggle to beat AS Monaco, and I don’t think tonight will be an exception to the ‘rule’.
What Paris Saint-Germain struggle to deal with is energy, principally because the capital club are very casual in their approach to matches, knowing that they can win any Ligue 1 match for showing up in just twenty minutes of it. That’s the perks of having all the money in the world, and being able to buy almost any player. Energetic teams like Metz, Racing Club Strasbourg, and Montpellier HSC can give them real headaches sometimes because they’re simply not prepared to run as much as their opponents, and that’s the only real way a Ligue 1 team stands a chance of upsetting the reigning champions.
However, the reason Paris Saint-Germain seldom struggle in this fixture is because AS Monaco are similarly complacent, confident in their superiority over other Ligue1 clubs – except that they’re not superior. Not at all. I can at least understand it with Paris Saint-Germain because they do have some amazing players, but AS Monaco haven’t had amazing players in years, so why are they allowed to be so complacent? Perhaps that was the thinking behind Niko Kovac coming in; players can’t afford to be lazy under him, because he was never that type of player himself. However, the flip side to his appointment is that his football is generally considered to be too negative, and the Russian billionaire that owns AS Monaco wants them to be entertaining. Indeed, based on his calls over the years, my assessment of what he wants AS Monaco to be is attacking, exciting, efficient, entertaining, and never conceding. I think I can see where the problem is coming from!
AS Monaco still have some individuals that can steer them past certain Ligue 1 teams, but in general, they’re a bigger name than they are a threat. They’re not good enough at dealing with teams that bully them. They’re not smart enough to outsmart most Ligue 1 teams. They’re not good enough in the final third to outscore most teams. They’re kind of like a middle ground team in every sense of the word. They’re not shit at anything; they’re just not great at anything either. They’ll have their moments, AS Monaco, but nothing more than that.
Furthermore, their position against bogey team Paris Saint-Germain tonight is more complex than usual. You need your best players in order to beat the best teams, and AS Monaco are missing most of theirs. I appreciate that Russian playmaker Golovin has been out for a while anyway, but he’s still the best creator they’ve got, and they miss him. Star striker Ben Yedder, literally the only player they’ve got that can be consistently trusted in front of goal, is sitting this one out too. Defensive regular Aguilar – not the most talented, but certainly one of their hardest-working players – is out too. Lastly, goalkeeper Lecomte – who was a very astute signing from Montpellier HSC, and has bailed them out more often than is acknowledged – is also out. Essentially, unless Gelson Martins pulls a rabbit out of the hat, AS Monaco are in deep shit here.
People go on about Paris Saint-Germain’s absentees without really know what they’re talking about, don’t they? Sometimes it’s worth opposing Paris Saint-Germain because of absentees, and sometimes it’s not. I’ll freely admit to taking a chance with such sometimes, and being burnt for it, but at least my calls follow the path of logic. Sometimes I feel like people want to oppose Paris Saint-Germain just because Neymar and Verratti are out, and that’s…well, it’s not enough. Paris Saint-Germain have two squads of players; that means they can handle most absentees, circumstances permitting.
Besides, the one thing that has become increasingly apparent at the capital club over the past twelve months or so is that Mbappe carries their attack. Di Maria only thrives when he’s the one carrying it; otherwise, he’s just a sullen, bit-part player. Neymar is tremendously gifted but looks like he should now retire to take up street football because of how much time he spends fucking around, and how little time he spends putting the ball in the net. He’s got the gift, but not the work-rate nor the big picture perspective. Even though Mbappe has been out of sorts this season, he’s still their best and most dynamic attacker because when he’s on the pitch, this is not a slow, ponderous, nor predictable outfit.
Based on Tuchel’s comments yesterday, Mbappe is going to play tonight. He was delighted that Deschamps used Mbappe sparingly. Tuchel was also optimistic about Neymar getting a few minutes in this game, Kean being able to play a part, and both Ruiz and Sarabia returning. The injury/absentee list at Paris Saint-Germain is starting to lessen, and this team does not struggle to win Ligue 1 games when they’re close to full-strength, whether they deserve it or not. AS Monaco tend to give Paris Saint-Germain time on the ball, and that’s an extremely suicidal approach. Paris Saint-Germain will not struggle to use that, not against this AS Monaco side that is missing arguably its four best players.
Paris Saint-Germain have their own complications to overcome before they become as good as they think they are. However, those problems pale in comparison to those of AS Monaco, who have frankly gotten closer to being relegated than they have to winning the title over the past couple of years. Despite the history between these two clubs, the reality is that there’s a big gulf between them now, and even Paris Saint-Germain’s lengthy list of absentees should not change that here. They can replace those that are out; can AS Monaco say the same? Absolutely not.
Therefore, I’m inclined to back Paris Saint-Germain to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 47/50 in what should be a far easier game than it should be allowed to be by the home team.
