TFT Issue 3269!

Paderborn 07 vs St. Pauli

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’m really not feeling much love for Paderborn 07, folks! I know that St. Pauli are annoyingly random a lot of the time, and the Hamburg outfit sure do tend to work hard, but they’re not particularly good nowadays, and their injury list is significant. Paderborn 07 really should be able to beat them today.

Personally, I’m rather excited that Mamba is able to play for the home team again after a lengthy spell on the sidelines but to be honest, they’ve coped rather well without the rapid attacker. He’s not a naturally gifted finisher, Mamba, but he’s as fast as hell, so playing in a Bundesliga 2 that is littered with high defensive lines is bread and butter for him. Whether something has gone on behind the scenes or not that has led to omission from the team though, I simply don’t know, but they’re not playing him right now. Perhaps they will now; time will tell. He’s certainly not injured any longer.

Paderborn 07 are well-ran though. They bought intelligently after relegation, kept who they could, and are now in a good position to get promoted from the division. Whether they do or not is impossible to say at this stage because most teams competing in the Bundesliga 2 are capable of such, and the only teams in the division that should be too good for the rest tend to bottle it anyway. Paderborn 07 have the mental strength and the quality to be a team that is promoted, to be frank. 

Their signings, though – pure bravissimo! Ingelsson on loan? Genius signing; he’s been excellent. I hadn’t even heard of Fuhrich until he joined on loan from Bv09 Borussia Dortmund II, but three goals in seven appearances tells you all you need to know about the midfielder. Imagine how good they’ll be when Michel is fit again too! My favourite of the lot was their decision to pick Terrazzino up though – a cracking bit of business. He always impressed me at Dynamo Dresden last season with his work-rate, his trickery, and his awareness. This one isn’t a loan move, though – he was cut loose, and Paderborn 07 signed him so he’s there for the duration. Great bit of business; very much a player that can aid them in a promotion push.

I’m unsurprised that Paderborn 07 have started winning games, to put it frankly. I may have been surprised by the manner of some of them, but winning games comes naturally to this team because they’re terrific mentally, possess a lot of stamina, and have plenty of match-winners in the final third. I appreciate that going five games unbeaten (which is what would happen were this tip to come in) is pretty rare at Bundesliga 2 level, but there’s every reason to believe that Paderborn 07 can do it here. They’ve settled in nicely since returning to the Bundesliga 2, and there’s little that they should worry about in the St. Pauli camp right now.

St. Pauli’s bunch of miscreants are still without a couple of their best players right now. Japanese creator Miyaichi is still injured and battling Austrian forward Burgstaller is injured too. I have been impressed with Uruguayan youngster Salazar since he joined; he’s done well. Kyereh has levelled out more though, and that leaves St. Pauli without a natural goal-scorer because as brilliant as Makienok unquestionably is in the air, he’s not a brilliant finisher. Kyereh and Makienok work well together but there still needs to be a goal at the end of the move, and I fail to see who will get it with Burgstaller out.

Ultimately, I tend to find that St. Pauli lack with making the right call in the final third, whether it’s the final pass or the goal-scoring touch. Give them enough opportunities via cowardly defensive play, and St. Pauli will still hurt teams because they don’t easily give up. However, a team that can score more than them, or a team that can control a game, should not struggle with them. Karlsruher SC proved that prior to the international break, and I am expecting Paderborn 07 to prove it too. I do like St. Pauli, in a weird sort of way, but I’m struggling to grasp how they’ll get something from a game like this without Miyaichi and Burgstaller being available.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 4/5.

Verdict: Paderborn 07 to win at 4/5.

Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

Werder Bremen are one of my favourite German teams. I love watching them play; it’s like rolling the clock back sixty years to when teams used to just attack. Sometimes they’re very good at it, and sometimes they’re not. They’re quite predictable in an odd sort of way, I suppose you could say. They don’t deviate from their attacking style, and they have zero capacity to actually sit on a lead, so it’s all about attacking with Werder Bremen.

Now, playing that way at home against Schalke 04, Mainz 05, or Arminia Bielefeld – that can work. Sometimes they can score a positive result against the likes of Eintracht Frankfurt or TSG Hoffenheim too. However, you can guess what happens when they play as adventurously as they do against the top teams of German football; teams that usually aren’t afforded as much space by opponents as they are by Werder Bremen. It’s not just because Bayern Munich are the better team that there’s such a one-sided list of head-to-head fixtures between these two teams; it’s because Bayern Munich are the best team in the country at exploiting space, and few give it more than Werder Bremen.

To add meat to the bones, Werder Bremen have lost their last twenty games in a row against Bayern Munich, a record which goes back to 2010. It’s always the same story too; the game goes precisely as Bayern Munich want it to. In away games, they tend to press high, forcing Werder Bremen to play long – which they hate – and then just wait for inevitable opportunities to kill the game on the break, expending very little energy in the process. At home though, Bayern Munich tend to press high, and play with a lot more purpose and boldness, which tends to result in massacres because Werder Bremen cannot – and will not – change their style. From their last seven visits to Bavaria, Werder Bremen have conceded thirty goals, so I’m sure you can all see the trend here.

I’m not a big believer in relying on statistics though, I must be honest. I despise the Twitter ‘tipsters’ that advise folk to bet on games just because things have happened in the past. So what? You perhaps had a cup of coffee this morning; it doesn’t mean you’re going to have one tomorrow morning, does it? No, there has to be more to a tip than that. The reason I believe that Werder Bremen are in for their customary hammering in Munich today is because of one man’s absence; Klaassen. It would be horribly misleading to say that he carried this team during his time in Bremen, but he brought something to their line-up that nobody else did, which is the ability to command a midfield, and the ability to carry the ball at all times.

Prior to Klaassen, Gnabry was the rather unusual one to do it. He did less commanding though, of course, but a lot more directly hurt teams with his dribbles, his finesse, and his tenacity. Prior to him, it was Max Kruse, who is now running the show for Union Berlin. Bluntly put, Werder Bremen must have somebody that can carry the ball in order to try and force opponents into mistakes because breaking teams down is not something that Werder Bremen do well, especially not over the past eighteen months. They participate in open games well enough, but penetrating defences – it just doesn’t suit their current crop.

Klaassen, although I am not his biggest fan, did a very good job for Werder Bremen. He was everywhere for them, harassing opponents, trying to make things happen. However, just before the transfer deadline, a move to his old club AFC Ajax Amsterdam was placed on the table (to replace the departed Van de Beek) and he couldn’t say no. Clubs in a better financial position than Werder Bremen would have said no, but anyone who follows German football knows that the answer is never ‘no’ when it comes to an offer for a Werder Bremen player. They’re a selling club, I’m afraid, and they had to take the money – but haven’t been able to replace the Dutchman. Subsequently, there’s a colossal gaping hole in midfield that they’ve been completely unable to plug, and that’s going to seriously show against the best team in Germany. Hell, probably the best in the world, actually.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Werder Bremen, mind you. There’s a serious lack of a goal-getter up front, which has caused them problems for nearly two years now. Selke should be the ideal replacement but it’s not really worked out for him since he moved back to Bremen. Sargent – I don’t know why they persevere with him; he’s just not good enough. Fullkrug is average at best. There are engines a-plenty, but no real goal-scorers. So, yeah – that’s an issue. However, they’ve got Augustinsson back from long-term injury, and for me, he’s one of the most underrated left-backs in European football. Why Bv09 Borussia Dortmund haven’t signed him yet is completely beyond me; that fella can last forever! They’ve still got Bittencourt, Kosovan star Rashica is back from injury, and Dutch winger Chong has made an exciting start to life in Germany. The Eggestein brothers (one is out on loan) represent the future of the club, and they’ve got some real warriors in defence. So, yeah – don’t get the wrong idea with Werder Bremen.

It’s just the style of their opponents that should cripple Werder Bremen here. They can’t deal with teams that make them go long, and they will always concede when put under the cosh by opponents. That defence of theirs has been assembled to deter opponents, to threaten from set pieces, and to play the ball out well from the back, not because they’re actually good at defending. Getting at them will result in goals anyway, and that’s a lot easier to do with no Klaassen in the equation. I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine a team being able to hurt such weaknesses more than Bayern Munich can, which is why I think Werder Bremen are in a whole world of trouble today.

There’s a chance that Bayern Munich may rotate for this game but I doubt it’ll be too extreme. They did struggle with Salzburg in the reversal of their UEFA Champions League fixture but let’s face it; they’re already through in the group that they’re in. The Bundesliga should be their priority for now, so long as internationals haven’t taken too much out of their players, I expect the Bavarians to name a strong line-up today. They’ve got enough depth for every side they name to be ‘strong’ though, to be fair. Even their emerging kids look bloody good, and are beyond ready for this level.

Bayern Munich are natural winners. They look very confident and capable under Flick, scoring goals at will, and with arguably the best striker on the planet on their books in Lewandowski, it’s not hard to see why things tend to go swimmingly for the German champions. I can’t pick a single weakness in this squad right now, be it mental, physical, tactical, or quality – they just don’t have any. I would add that I don’t know why they signed Sarr, nor why Arp continues to be overlooked, but other than that, Bayern Munich are A1 in my book. They seldom pass up on an opportunity to hammer Werder Bremen at home, and with their last few displays not exactly going according to plan (despite winning them!), I’d like to think that the table-toppers will give a good account of themselves here.

Therefore, my main tip is for Bayern Munich to beat the -2.5 Asian Handicap at 4/5. However, I will also take on a long shot of Bayern Munich to bag over 5.5 goals at long odds of 9/2 because this is the kind of game they’re capable of doing it in. Werder Bremen are natural fighters, but they’re not good enough with their positioning at any time, and Bayern Munich’s finishing is usually lethal.

Verdict: Bayern Munich to beat the -2.5 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Bayern Munich to score over 5.5 goals at 9/2.

Slaven Koprivnica vs Hajduk Split 

KO: 16:05 (UK time)

Even though pitches in Croatia generally get a bit poor as winter draws in, I still expect a high-scoring game to take place here. Not many Prva Liga outfits have the balls to play Hajduk Split in an open way, but Slaven Koprivnica are an exception. They’ve done so against the likes of Rijeka, NK Osijek, and Dinamo Zagreb this season, so they’re not going to stop against Hajduk Split now. The visitors may be a colossal club in this country, but they drift between being a good team and an average team because of the constant happenings behind the scenes.

I mean, in recent times, they’ve randomly appointed a new chairman – just a day before the embarrassment against Istra 1961, actually – and after that the likes of Kepcija, Vukas, and Stanic all left the club in a variety of different ways. Subsequently, the club have had to appoint a new manager, which is currently Boro Primoraca, who was in charge of the youth academy. The rumour mill in Croatia suggests that the long-term job will either go to Tomic of Lokomotiva Zagreb (unsure if he plays a style that Hajduk Split would relish, to be honest, but he is consistent and organised) or Kek of Slovenia (hard to imagine this happening from a financial perspective, but he does know the division from his time with Rijeka). Just when they get their shit together, something always seems to happen to derail Hajduk Split, which basically puts them in a perpetual state of uncertainty.

To be fair to the players at the club, they never seem to let it affect them in a negative capacity. Hajduk Split still stick to their roots, playing entertaining, attacking football, and generally trying to outscore teams. However, with a weak financial situation, a readiness to accept most offers that come in for their phenomenally talented youngsters, and a constant change of setup behind the scenes, it’s not hard to see why there’s an imbalance in this squad. I’m surprised they’d held on to Nejasmic for as long as they have, to be honest. I can only assume his injury put teams off him. Mind you, he’s out today, leaving Hajduk Split without their best defensive midfielder – ouch.

This team will always prioritise attacking over defending, and that makes them a natural contender for over 2.5 goals games. Don’t forget that, as gifted as Gyursco, Caktas, and Jradi unquestionably are in the final third, none of them like tracking back to defend. There’s often a big divide between Hajduk Split’s lines, and it’s something that even the weakest Prva Liga sides have managed to take advantage of in recent times. I still rate today’s visitors highly, particularly now they’ve got a solid target man in Greece’s Diamantakos, but there’s not enough of a balance in their squad for me to generally trust Hajduk Split to win matches, and today’s trip to the formidable Gradski is not an exception.

Slaven Koprivnica have been good at home for years now; even the top teams in Croatia hate this fixture. No matter what’s thrown at them, Slaven Koprivnica find a way to deal with it, and almost always impress on their own patch. The bookies know it, too – check out their odds on Slaven Koprivnica home games! The home team will almost always be odds-on to win. They’re not as good as Hajduk Split, but I cannot deny that this is a mighty fine time to face their more illustrious opposition. 

Furthermore, I also cannot deny that Slaven Koprivnica have really impressed me this season. They may not have been efficient, but they sure have played some entertaining and adventurous football. Their fearlessness has almost scored them some very unlikely points too, troubling the very best that Croatia has to offer on a very regular basis. They have struggled in their past couple of matches, it’s true, but look at who they faced – NK Osijek and Lokomotiva Zagreb, two teams that have seriously honed their respective defences this season. Slaven Koprivnica aren’t the best at breaking teams down, and that’s me putting it politely. They thrive in games where teams have a go at them, and that’s what they’ll get from Hajduk Split today.

To be fair, that’s what tends to happen when these two teams meet anyway; six out of the last eight head-to-heads have gone over 2.5 goals. Now that Slaven Koprivnica have gotten Krstanovic to roll back the years, bullying defenders all over the place, and have surrounded him with speed and energy, Slaven Koprivnica seldom struggle to create chances in games where teams will actually prioritise trying to beat them. Subsequently, I’ve every reason to believe that we’re in for a cracker of a game here, winter pitch or not.

Therefore, backing over 2.5 goals at 19/20 suits me just fine.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Haifa

KO: 17:50 (UK time)

I understand the bookies making Maccabi Haifa favourites for this derby. It’s logical enough; they’re the better team, and they’re mostly performed well this season. However, anybody that follows Israeli football will tell you that few teams are more inconsistent than Maccabi Haifa, and that has not changed, as an unconvincing 2-1 win against MS Ashdod prior to the international break proved. This is not a team I would rely upon, and definitely not a team I would be caught backing to win a derby at – what – 1/2? No chance, especially not in a game that they traditionally struggle in!

I mean, you have to appreciate that this fixture means the world to Hapoel Haifa! It’s literally all they play for, year after year. Good form or not, they’re up for this one, Hapoel Haifa, and with Maccabi Haifa prone to being undone by teams that simply work harder than them, it’s not hard to grasp why Hapoel Haifa haven’t lost against Maccabi Haifa in nine out of their last twelve competitive meetings, and during that time, Maccabi Haifa have always been the better team on paper. I’m sure you can understand why I am not prepared to trust the visitors, with that in mind, especially as these two teams share a stadium so there’s no home advantage, making it that bit more random.

Do I have the balls to back Hapoel Haifa to get something today, though? No, I do not. They’ve generally not done enough in games this season, which is one aspect of it. Regular shot stopper Buric is out, defender Capiloto is out, and so is Nachmias, none of which is ideal. They brought Vermouth in to be their creative killer, and he’s not even featured this season, meaning that their forwards have had poor service, and Ben Basat’s continued absence hurts them there too. Bluntly put, backing Hapoel Haifa, even in a game they traditionally do well in, is bold.

However, I will say this; they’ve made seriously good signings lately in Barsky and Maman. Barsky’s best football over the past five years was with Hapoel Haifa; his return gives them energy in midfield, and some degree of control. Maman is a very experienced creator, and one that is far more consistent than inconsistent Vermouth. Those two signings are just what the Doctor ordered for Hapoel Haifa. Their defence is still a mess, but their attack should not be underestimated, not whilst those two are in the squad. 

The rumour mill suggests that this is Hapoel Haifa boss Silbas’ last chance so they need a positive result here. That should help Maccabi Haifa in the sense that they’re going to push out, and with Rukavytsya seemingly only getting better with age, I have to believe that Maccabi Haifa can punish such from their little brothers, even with Wildschut out of the equation right now. They may be lazy, inconsistent, and incredibly frustrating, Maccabi Haifa, but they do tend to score goals, and few teams look more prepared to concede them than Hapoel Haifa right now.

They’ve still got Rodriguez and Chery to support the attacks so even the absence of Ashkenazi and Wildschut shouldn’t prevent the ‘visitors’ from at least scoring a goal or two here. I seriously doubt they’ll have the stamina nor interest to keep up with a more tenacious Hapoel Haifa here, even if they do end up outscoring them. I expect Barsky and Maman to ensure that Maccabi Haifa concede at least once today. Whether that’s enough for Hapoel Haifa to get something from the derby or not remains to be seen, yet I would not be seduced by horrendously short odds on Maccabi Haifa here.

The 1×2 market is a no go zone for me, but backing over 2.5 goals at 9/10 does make sense.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Young Boys Bern vs FC Basel 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

I might get burnt by this derby, but I don’t care; opposing Young Boys Bern is the right thing to do. For three years now, they’ve regressed under Seoane. They’ve only won trophies because of a lack of competition, and FC Basel are one of the big culprits of such. This is not a convincing nor consistent Young Boys Bern side though. Literally all that remains of the Hutter era is the team’s ability to pass their way around opponents. They lack in ideas, finesse, depth, and in their capacity to defend any situation more than they have in ages so I’m struggling to grasp why they’re priced as short as they are to beat their old foes tonight.

What I’ve noticed from this fixture over the past year or so is that FC Basel tend to want it more. Now, they’re not a consistent team themselves but this fixture has become more important to them since it became apparent that winning the Super League is not even remotely close to being possible for FC Basel anymore. They make it hard for Young Boys Bern to beat them, in other words, even though FC Basel just end up struggling against lesser teams themselves. It’s a bit sad that the Rot-Blau have had to resort to such a pathetic point-scoring approach but it’s the reality now; they have to get their kicks up from upsetting the Young Boys Bern party.

What tends to happen in these games is that Young Boys Bern play their usual fancy passing game, don’t get very far, and FC Basel cut them to pieces on the break with their speed. Their tenacity when getting the ball back tends to be very good, and it must be said that they’re far better equipped to counterattack than they are to attack from open play. The plastic pitch is a concern but FC Basel should find every other aspect of facing cowardly, slovenly Young Boys Bern somewhat enjoyable.

I recognise that Young Boys Bern are the better side here; the bookies are not wrong to make them favourites. However, they’ve not played a single good game of football this season, and get a lot more wrong than they should. They’re too easy to score against, too afraid to take risks in wide positions, and they’re not scoring enough because Nsame is – rather understandably – having a bit of a breather after carrying this team for all of last season. Therefore, despite me recognising the superiority of the reigning champions when compared to the disappointing FC Basel side, I can’t really accept that the hosts are as fancied as they are today.

I mean, as awful as FC Basel have done in the transfer market over the past few years, they’ve still managed to get Cabral back, and he was excellent for them last season. They’ve brought in Kasami, which was a great move. They even got Brazilian defender Jorge from AS Monaco! Yes, they lack depth, a good goalkeeper, a good holding midfielder, and a regular flair player, but most of the rest of what they’ve got is very good. They’re not capable of breaking teams down very well; that’s very true. They are quite good at countering though, and they should have ample opportunities to do so today.

A midfield containing Stocker, Kasami, Campo, and Frei is going to create chances, and both Cabral and von Moos will get good service because of it. I think they’re better equipped to get a positive result in the nation’s capital today than their hosts are, to be frank, and it’s not often I’ll say that about an FC Basel side that have gotten a lot wrong over the past few years. Young Boys Bern are horribly overrated though, based upon their displays, so I’ll take my chances on backing FC Basel with a +1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Verdict: FC Basel to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 83/100.