TFT Issue 3270!

ACF Fiorentina vs Benevento

KO: 11:30 (UK time)

Once again, a manager – Iachini – is sacked by ACF Fiorentina, and another familiar face – Prandelli – returns to the helm. It’s hard to think of many teams that go around in circles more than Viola when it comes to managers. 

Still, at least this time they’ve appointed a really good manager who knows the club inside out. Prandelli has been around for – well, it feels like he’s been here since the dawn of time. It could be argued that ACF Fiorentina have played some of their best football in years under Prandelli, so his return is expected to bring positive things. How long that lasts for is anyone’s guess, really. One universal truth nowadays is that nothing lasts for long at ACF Fiorentina, and it’s hard to believe Prandelli has too much longer left before giving up on management altogether. Still, for the present, ACF Fiorentina should benefit from his presence and experience.

I don’t think anyone can say ACF Fiorentina have a bad squad; that’s simply not true. Whether they lack balance and direction, however, is open to debate. You know, when I see Ribery on one side, Bonaventura or Valero dictating the tempo, in-form Castrovilli scoring goals at will, Amrabat’s speed, Callejon’s drifting, and Cutrone leading the line, I can only envision goals coming. That’s without even mentioning Saponara or Duncan, two players that have seriously impressed me over the past two years. It just never feels like there’s a long-term plan at this club though, which is presumably why their players always look as despondent as they do. Capable, but with minds elsewhere; let’s put it that way.

I’d like to think that Prandelli will get them back on board, at least for the present. He’s good enough and experienced enough to do it, and any manager that can will unleash a lethal attack. Their defence leaves a lot to be desired with there being attack-minded players like Lirola in it, but Milenkovic and Caceres won’t lose many aerial duels in the middle of that back four so there’s at least something to work with. Mostly, the biggest weakness I see in the ACF Fiorentina squad is their lack of legs in front of the back four to press opponents. Subsequently, teams have time to pick passes in behind the ACF Fiorentina back four, which leads to goals. Again, I expert Prandell ito find a way to solve that, which should help restore balance to this side. Ultimately, I’m confident we’ll see a positive reaction to Prandelli’s return today, and hosting Benevento should be a good opportunity to do so. True enough, I believe Benenvento will run more and want it more than their Florence hosts, but it goes without saying that ACF Fiorentina are simply a better team with more firepower.

The patterns of Benevento since promotion are worryingly similar to the last time they were promoted; lots of energy, lots of conviction, but little by way of efficiency. They’re never far away from scoring, the southerners – I have to hand that to them. However, they’re utterly incapable of denying teams, and that’s despite acquiring a very good defender in Kamil Glik to organise their back four. The trouble is that the best they’ve got to pair him with is Caldirola, who is used to playing in attack-minded teams that concede a lot. Nobody here seems to worry about the defensive situation at Benevento, basically – everything they do is centred upon attacking. True enough, they’re good at that, but in a division containing at least fifteen teams that are better in front of goal than they are, it’s hard to imagine how this plan of theirs is supposed to work.

I do love watching Benevento, though – they’re beautifully entertaining. If every team played like they do, Ian would be a very happy bunny indeed because football is more fun that way. They don’t, though, because most teams are smart enough to grind their way past opponents, which is an art that Benevento have never even heard of, let alone learned. On paper, I love the idea of Ionita, Hetemaj, Caprari, Lapadula, and Falque hurting teams in a variety of different ways. None of them are consistent finishers though, and not many of them have a great desire to get back and defend either…

Things are likely to be even harder for Benevento today with defensive regular Tuia out, as well as joint top-scorer Caprari. It’s hard to imagine feisty forward Lapadula lasting the full ninety minutes either, given that he was in action for Peru recently. Benevento rely heavily on energy in their displays, and although I can see the logic behind that hurting a generally rather complacent Viola, I’m not sure that their players will have that energy after an international break, at least not where they need it the most. Let me put it like this; the moment Benevento get hemmed in at the Artemio Franchi, it’s lights out. If they can keep pushing ACF Fiorentina back then Benevento have a chance of scoring a positive result. Doing that to a Prandelli team with key players out, though? And Lapadula unlikely to be as energetic as normal? I just don’t see it, so I believe Benevento are in danger of yet another hammering here, whether the display itself warrants such or not.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Prandelli’s boys sending him home with a smile after this game.

Verdict: AFC Fiorentina to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.

Sheffield United vs West Ham United 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

I do feel sorry for Sheffield United. I think they’ve done everything by the book since getting promoted from the Championship, trusting their nucleus of players whilst only adding players here and there. They’ve worked hard for boss Wilder, and the cohesion in their squad is, in general, very impressive. Last season, there were a real breath of fresh air in what is becoming an increasingly stagnant Premier League. This season, though, they’ve just not done enough pre-season. Second season is always the ‘revealer’, if you will, and Sheffield United have basically shown that they’ve not done enough pre-season.

I still think they’ll be just peachy if they get relegated because their wage bill isn’t astronomical, and those players they’ve invested a lot of money in will not leave for anything but double that because they’re young players with good futures ahead of them. In that sense, I think Sheffield United are just fine. For the season ahead though, things are going to be very hard because, as I said above, they’ve simply not done enough pre-season in terms of bringing in quality players. 

I appreciate that Sheffield United have had injury problems, but then again, so have lots of clubs. You could also argue that they’ve been unlucky in some of their games but you aren’t awarded points on merit; only on results. The statistics don’t lie, either – seven defeats from eight games. Unlike most teams in the Premier League, I think they were relieved when the international break came around because they needed that breather to group, get players back, and refocus. I don’t think it’ll change much today, but they couldn’t carry on as they were. I still think the Yorkshire outfit will give the capital club a really rough ride here, such is their passionate nature, but I just don’t see the quality in tier squad to actually hurt The Hammers.

I doubt many people criticise West Ham United more than I do but they’ve become quite solid this season. Maybe it’s the Moyes effect, which tends to kick in after a couple of years (which I think he’s just about hit, combined from his two spells), or maybe it’s their players remembering how good they’re capable of being. Whatever the case may be, West Ham United are finally putting together somewhat consistent displays, diligent defensive efforts, and clinical offensive efforts. The return of star attacker Antonio today should boost their chances too.

The old West Ham United would almost certainly bottle games of this nature for reasons known only to them. This one looks a lot more steadfast. Everybody knows how imposing they are from a physical perspective, but to add efficiency to the equation too is really rather unusual for The Hammers. They may not have signed the best players in the world, but they’ve signed players that actually fit the style they’re trying to play, and that makes a refreshing change too. All in all, I like where West Ham United are at. They look every inch the experienced Premier League outfit that they are, and this is the type of game they should be able to grind out a win in, particularly with the onus on the hosts to win this one.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on the away win at 13/10.

Verdict: West Ham United to win at 13/10.

SC Freiburg vs Mainz 05

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I do think that Mainz 05 have been getting a bit too much bad press overall. I don’t like what they did earlier in the season, sacking the manager that saved them last time out, and I think they deserved to lose games for that alone. However, they’ve not been shit, Mainz 05, at least not in recent times. They’ve played some lovely football, and are probably the most dangerous they’ve been in the final third for quite a few years now.

Gone is the over-reliance on one or two players; Mainz 05 have got quite a few, enough so to even oust towering Hungarian striker Szalai from the equation nowadays – and he’s a legend in these parts! French forward Mateta has finally stepped up the plate, about two years after he was supposed to (in his own career, that is), Quaison has been excellent, and Boetius looks the most mature he ever has, although he’s still a bit of a prick underneath it all. Hell, they’ve even managed to get forgotten man Dong-won fit again, which is a really good boost, assuming they can get him back to what he used to be. Factor in the speed of Onisiwo, and it’s as plain as day to see that boss Lichte has a lot to work with in attack.

It’s in defence where Mainz 05 are falling apart, time and time again. Their over-reliance on Niakhate is well-known, but even he hasn’t been able to prevent what can only be described as utterly disastrous defending all season long. I thought they’d found a clever solution to this problem by finally getting St. Juste fit but it ain’t happened. I really don’t know what a very capable Aaron Martin has to do to get a game at right-back either. Personally, given Mainz 05’s top-heavy squad, I’d be tempted to play a high line with Niakhate and St. Juste in the middle, and stick Aaron Martin on the right. They’ll still concede goals, but it’s the optimal way for them to play attack-minded football with this squad. Not doing it has – well, you can see the statistics in the Bundesliga this season for yourselves!

Defence and defensive midfield is their problem though. Lichte has generally turned to Latza to be the consistent one in central midfield for Mainz 05 with Fernandes and Malong trying to plug the gaps – which hasn’t worked. Latza has been the only one to hold his own, and he’s out for today’s game. Ouch. That means their already terrifying defending should be even more exposed today by SC Freiburg, who will have little problem in breaking them down. Subsequently, it’s all down to Mainz 05’s attack to bail them out for this game, and I don’t fancy their chances on that front. I do like that Mainz 05 attack, don’t get me wrong, but SC Freiburg away is one of the Bundesliga’s hardest away games nowadays. Mainz 05 know it, too – they’ve lost most of their away games at the Schwarzwald Stadion in recent years.

I also think that the form guide is rather harsh on SC Freiburg. They’ve consistently played good attacking football this season but just haven’t taken their chances well enough, which is really unusual for Petersen and co. Much like Mainz 05, they have given too many chances away this season, and have been punished for it. They’re doing better than the form guide suggests though, and an international break may have been just what the Doctor ordered for a very capable SC Freiburg team. 

I genuinely think this is one of SC Freiburg’s best squads in years too. Abrashi is injured (again – shocker(!)) and Til has been temporarily demoted to get some fitness, but what’s left is still very convincing. Their Koreans have done very well, midfield beast Santamaria has settled in well, and both Sallai and Grifo have been terrific at creating opportunities, particularly the latter. Petersen isn’t going to squander many chances either – he’s been around too long for that! It shouldn’t take more than a win or two for SC Freiburg to return to their brilliantly belligerent best, and I’d like to think today’s game would be perfect for them to do so.

As far as I am concerned, SC Freiburg are the better side here, and being able to face Mainz 05 with Latza on the sidelines is a dream come true right now. I expect a lot of goals, but I fancy the home win at 21/20 the most here.

Verdict: SC Freiburg to win at 21/20.

Udinese vs Genoa

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Both Udinese and Genoa have struggled this season, but I can at least understand Udinese’s position. I mean, they’re not a club that will ever invest enough to thrive at this level; they’re purely a selling club. However, they do invest enough to keep themselves afloat, and that’s precisely what they’ve done pre-season – bargain basement buys only. It can be hard to gee the players up after such a disheartening transfer window, but it doesn’t usually take too long for them to snap back into their usual battling selves, and the signs of such have been there lately. Genoa have gone in the opposite direction pre-season, signing pretty much every player they could find, and the result has been a complete lack of cohesion, and thus the receiving end of lots of defeats.

The key difference between Udinese and Genoa is that Udinese are natural fighters. They know what it takes to survive, whereas Genoa have had spells as a yo-yo team in the past, and they tend to walk a very fine line. I don’t particularly like what Udinese do, to be honest, but I can at least respect it, and I appreciate that their players ‘get’ what is required to stay up. In general, that means giving 110% in home games, and hoping for the best in away games. Ergo, today’s home game versus Genoa is very much a killer for Udinese. It’s one that they must win, even at this stage of the season, because ailing to win such fixtures would almost certainly see them relegated – and they know it.

Therefore, I expect Udinese to give a lot here, and they do have the quality to make it count, even with the likes of Mandragora still absent. I may have tongue-in-cheek referred to what Udinese did pre-season as ‘bargain basement buys’, but they’ve actually made very good signings. The reason I’m so disgusted with such is that both of their best new signings came from Watford – one of the three clubs (the other being Granada CF) owned by the same company, so transferring money from one to the other – well, it doesn’t cost them anything, really. Although Pussetto still has more to prove, I think Deulofeu and Pereyra are brilliant signings for a team lacking in flair and creativity, and keeping hold of Argentinian playmaker de Paul is as good as a new signing, really.

Yes, Udinese still struggle to put the ball in the net because they don’t have a natural finisher. Lasagna’s attitude is exemplary, and I love his movement and speed, but he’s not a natural goal-scorer. Nestorovski is a good target man but tends to lack in consistency nowadays, hence being displaced by Okaka, who isn’t really good enough for this level. Still, Udinese manage to cobble things together well enough, especially with such fine creators now on their books. They’ve had hard fixtures this season, for the most part, but have still performed well in them, Udinese. They seldom lack tactically, and I expect them to prove it against inferior Genoa today.

Ah, Genoa. Where do you even begin explaining this comedy gold club? I see stuff like this in lesser leagues where things are less ‘public’  to the football world, but you seldom find a club competing in one of the top leagues in the world that makes such brazen mistakes on such a regular basis. I mean, they once hired – and fired – Croatian manager Ivan Juric three times. Three times! Now they’ve got Maran in, whom I like, but what he’s supposed to do with this squad, I don’t know. I’ve no idea who made the relevant calls pre-season to sign the players that arrived, but I’m refusing to believe it’s Maran that authorised them as they’re mostly not ‘his’ kind of players.

On paper, Genoa can actually put out their best squad in years; please don’t suffer any illusions on that front! On Football Manager, this would be a beast of an underdog to manage, I promise you. The reality of things is rather different though. This is a very volatile and unstable club, so settling in here is very challenging. It’s generally perceived to be a half-way house for players that have lost their way, and want to prove to the world that they still have what it takes to perform at a high level. New signings like Zajc, Badelj, and Pjaca certainly fit the bill there. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee that Genoa will get the best out of them. Pjaca has been brilliant, to be fair, but Zajc and Badelj look – well, I can’t be too critical of them because they look on a different wavelength to most Genoa players because they’re too good. Subsequently, they don’t really ‘fit’, giving the impression that they’re not playing well when actually I think the rest of the Genoa squad needs to catch up with them in order for Genoa to attain a new level of playing.

Subsequently, Genoa’s displays look wholly disjointed; they’re entirely reliant on individuals to get them through matches right now. Fair enough – Pandev and Pjaca can do it, but who else? Expensive Uzbek forward Shomurodov has been injured a lot, and hasn’t convinced when he has played. Sturaro and Schone haven’t kicked a ball yet. Destro hasn’t been close to his best in years now. It all feels very desperate at Genoa, if that makes sense.  Subsequently, their displays have involved them conceding more goals than they’ve scored, and despite their obvious potential, this is not a team that I believe can win games of this nature right one. In time, perhaps, but not now.

Genoa also find themselves without two key players today with Pjaca and Criscito on the sidelines, and wing-back Zappacosta also likely to miss out, as is Cassata. Genoa’s defence looks slow and laboured as it is without Criscito there to organise it, and the Genoa attack is not going to worry many opposing defenders without in-form Pjaca in it. I just don’t believe in Genoa at the moment, to be frank. They’re getting too much wrong, and although I recognise that they can name a stronger side than Udinese on paper, I’ve seen nothing on the pitch to suggest that Genoa can win at Friuli (or should I say ‘Dacia’ now?) today.

Lastly, Udinese are Genoa’s bogey team; they’ve not beaten them in their last eight attempts, home or away. Udinese tend to have more fight, better tactics, and to be more streetwise than Genoa – and that’s precisely what the setup is right now too. Therefore, I’m on the home win at 4/5. 

Verdict: Udinese to win at 4/5.