TFT Issue 3280!

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Bankers

General Information

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Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Real Sociedad vs Rijeka

KO: (UK time)

Real Sociedad can be frustrating when breaking teams down with their penchant for too many sideways passess, and not enough actual penetration. However, when they get a chance, they do tend to score, and they should have plenty of them here. I like Rijeka, and I think that they can nullify the home team for a while, but it’s not going to last forever. Rijeka can threaten from set pieces but lack the quality to hurt Real Sociedad in any way other than that. Therefore, I feel like there’s a touch of inevitability about this game. 

Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at 7/50.

Banker

Slavia Prague vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva

KO: (UK time)

As impressed as I have generally been by Hapoel Be’er Sheva this season, this game does not come at a particularly favourable time for them. Slavia Prague may be guilty of impaling themselves upon their own sword from time to time, but they’re still a very good side. Hapoel Be’er Sheva, for all of their improvements this season, are still nowhere near as good as they used to be, meaning that any absentees they have are significant – and they have a few noteworthy ones here. I can’t help but feel that Slavia Prague are going to find a way to beat them, simply put.

 

Verdict: Slavia Prague to win at 1/4.

Featured game

AEK Athens vs Sporting Braga

KO: (UK time)

It’s win or bust for AEK Athens. Anything but a win in Greece tonight, and they’re out of the UEFA Europa League. They’ve only got themselves to blame for messing up against Zorya Lugansk last week too. They had their chances in a good first-half, didn’t take them, and fell apart in the second-half. Now they’ve got to beat a much better team, and they’ve got to do it without Garcia, Paulinho, Simao, Shakhov, and Szymanski. SImao has been out all season long, as has Szymanski, but rapid Garcia, creator Shakhov, and Portuguese defender Paulinho have all featured this season, especially the latter two. I’m particularly concerned by the absence of Shakhov, who was brought in to bridge the gap between AEK Athens’ talented forwards, and their hard-working but somewhat predictable midfielders.

The onus is now on Krsticic to make something happen, and it’s not really ideal at European level. Tankovic can make things happen by himself but hasn’t really settled in yet. I think Oliveira, Livaja, and Ansifard are all real handfuls up front, but they need support – and I don’t see where that support is going to come from here. As much as I like the football AEK Athens usually play – which is basically Portuguese – I can’t understand what their plan will be tonight. They were handsomely beaten by Sporting Braga in the reversal of this fixture, and I expect a similar outcome here – their style just doesn’t work here.

Furthermore, AEK Athens have gone from controlling games to letting them play out as their opponents see fit. It’s not a very savvy way to play in Europe, really. AEK Athens are quite a good team; I like what Carrera has done there. They’ve become a big team in Greece once more, and a dependable one too. To see them now relinquishing control of games is sad, really. I think their absentees are mounting because of fixture congestion too – they don’t have much by way of rotation. Under different circumstances, I believe AEK Athens would give a better account of themselves – but not right now.

Instead, I have to believe that the situation tonight favours Sporting Braga. I thought they were good against Leicester City last week, although the English team were rather sloppy on the night. Let your guard down against Sporting Braga though, and they will score. They play good attacking football, have a lot of experience throughout their squad, and usually leave their mark on teams because of it. The UEFA Europa League is very much their level, and I expect them to prove it in Greece tonight.

My only real concern here would be that a draw would suffice for Sporting Braga – assuming Leicester City do what is expected of them in Ukraine. I will be very concerned if Leicester City are comfortably ahead at half-time because Sporting Braga will simply play ‘keep ball’, and they’re very good at it. I would not call them a defensive team, per se, but they’re experienced enough to know how to wind down the clock where required. I much prefer it when they play on the front foot, which they’re very good at, but if it doesn’t make sense to do so, they may not.

Still, AEK Athens have to win, and that should give Fransergio, Novais, and the Hortas all the space they could possibly want to make things happen. They’ve got some rapid wide threats, although I still find that Medeiros and Galeano are a bit lightweight. Paulinho is a good line leader too, not that he’s bagged yet this season. They’re really not short of silky attackers though, Sporting Braga, and they are far more likely to convert their chances created than most in this group. I do not trust their defending one bit, but they should have more than enough about them to win here, securing their place in the knockout round.

I’ll take my chances on the away win.

Verdict: Sporting Braga to win at 12/11.

Additional games

AS Roma vs Young Boys Bern

KO: (UK time)

I watched the reversal of this fixture, and the way AS Roma were able to dominate Young Boys Bern at will should have been very scary for the Swiss champions. I appreciate that Young Boys Bern are supposed to be the inferior team, but they really were taught a lesson by the Italians in that one.

What you have to appreciate is that AS Roma don’t take this competition seriously – yet. They will in February, but not yet. Subsequently, they tend to name an A/B team fusion for each UEFA Europa League match, and have enough power cards on the bench, should they require them. They did that in Bern, and had a poor first-half, affording the Swiss side far too much time on the ball, and duly fell behind because of it. However, Fonseca made the necessary changes at half-time, and AS Roma then played Young Boys Bern off the park despite only needing their best players on the pitch for half of the game. The old Young Boys Bern would never have allowed that to happen – but this one does. Honestly, in a tougher group, you’d see how far they’ve regressed under Seoane, and it’s sad to be able to say it.

Even though I know that AS Roma are likely to rotate again tonight, I still think they’ll win this one. A win grants them top spot in the group, and that would be a nice finale for them, rather than potentially needing to record a positive result in Bulgaria next week. I just don’t think Young Boys Bern are good enough to upset them nowadays either. I appreciate that AS Roma still have significant absentees, and that the attacking nature of boss Fonseca will always leave them at least partially open at the back. Indeed, the old Young Boys Bern would have had a field day with them! This one, though? There are some fast players, and they are comfortable at stroking the ball around the pitch, but they seldom penetrate well enough for me, tonight’s visitors.

Whether AS Roma do it for ninety minutes or for forty-five, I expect them to do enough to beat Young Boys Bern here, basically. They’ve not just got more match-winners, but they’ve got a better manager, and far more flexibility with their playing style. They work harder under Fonseca than they have under anyone else for many years now, AS Roma, and when they work hard, they tend to do well because of the quality they’ve got. This should not be a home game that they struggle in, to put it bluntly.

Young Boys Bern have some players to be wary of, but in general cause themselves more problems than they cause their opponents. Their weaknesses aren’t even new, either – they’ve been there for years, completely unaddressed by Seoane. There’s no depth in the wing-back positions, for example, and anybody who has watched the Swiss champions over the past few years know how important the likes of Lotomba and Mbabu were – and they’ve not been adequately replaced. That plays a big part in their struggles to break teams down. There’s now no alternative goal-getter with Hoarau having moved to FC Sion. It’s as if Seoane figured that Nsame would able to emulate last season’s form on a regular basis, which is just madness, really. They’ve not addressed their inability to defend long diagonals in behind their centre-backs. They’ve not addressed their lack of incisive passing, decision-making, and concise finishing either. Honestly, this Young Boys Bern side does very little for me. They’re the best of a bad bunch in Switzerland right now, and AS Roma should be able to prove it here.

For me, backing the home win at 19/20 is a good value pick here.

Verdict: AS Roma to win at 19/20.

Granada CF vs PSV Eindhoven

KO: (UK time)

I backed Granada CF to do well in the reversal of this fixture, and I am more than happy to do the same again. They look far more streetwise and flexible than any other team in this group. PSV Eindhoven obviously have the greater prestige, and the more ‘talked about’ players, but Granada CF look wily and experienced enough to make a good go of the UEFA Europa League this season, and they’ve taken it very seriously from the onset.

I do think PSV Eindhoven have done good things this season, for what it’s worth. They’ve finally pushed the boat out a bit, spending some money on good players, trying to balance out their squad etc. I think they’ve got a healthy mixture of talented youngsters and experienced veterans. However, I stand by what I’ve said all along – this is a team that was assembled to do well in the Eredivisie, not Europe. I maintain that they’re one of the smarter tactical outfits in the Eredivisie, but they still do little for me in Europe, needing open games in order to show what they’re capable of. In games they’re shut out of, they simply get outplayed, and usually outscored. That’s what I expect to happen in Spain tonight.

Do you really think Granada CF are going to tackle PSV Eindhoven in an open exchange here? Not a chance! They’re far too smart to allow that. They may let PSV Eindhoven have the ball, and wait for opportunities on the break, but they’re not going to readily leave space in behind for Malen and co. to run into. No, they’re going to ask PSV Eindhoven to be that bit more creative and direct in order to break through – and that’s very clever. I won’t deny that the Dutch giants have some individuals that can manage it, but not enough for me to worry about it unduly. It’ll take something very impressive from PSV Eindhoven to win this game, or something bad from Granada CF, the latter of which gets rarer with each passing year.

For me, this game will be Granada CF showing PSV Eindhoven how to play in Europe once more, and the sheer irony of that is not lost on me, given how good PSV Eindhoven used to be in Europe. Hiddink in the early 2000s, anyone? That team was magnificent! This one is the best they’ve had in years, and will compete for the Eredivisie title, but is still not a good European team. I’m open to being proven wrong, but I’ve not seen anything to make me think otherwise in Europe this season. Every time they’ve won a game, it’s been because their opponents have been too open in one form or another. I’ve not seen any team manage to make Granada CF do that this season, at least not in Europe.

They’re so good at winning ugly, Granada CF. They know how to grind on teams, how to win more 50/50 battles, how to outfight and outsmart teams etc. They’ve learnt more from the likes of Atletico Madrid and Getafe CF than from the book of Real Madrid and Barcelona CF, that’s for sure! They’ll win by attrition, Granada CF, and I’ve been seriously impressed with how they’ve done it this season. Even when they let a 1-0 lead become a 1-1 draw, they still have enough to bounce back and go on to win the game. They always look a step ahead of the rest, PSV Eindhoven included.

I just don’t know why things would be any different tonight. I certainly don’t see why the Spaniards would lose this one. A draw is possible, as that’s all it would take for them to go through. The onus is on PSV Eindhoven to win this one more than anything, and I don’t envy them. I think they’ll need to score a lot of goals to win this one, and Granada CF seldom seem charitable to me. I almost feel compelled to side with the streetwise Spaniards here, especially whilst I can get odds of 4/5 on them winning with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Granada CF to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Europa League:

AEK Athens – Garcia, Paulinho, Simao, Shakhov, and Szymanski are absent.
Sporting Braga – Fonte and Moura are absent.
Zorya Lugansk Cvek, Grechkinm Kazakov, Khomchenovsky, Makharadze, and Vernydub are absent.
Leicester City – Amartey, Ndidi, and Soyuncu are absent. Castagne and Pereira are doubts.
AC Milan – Musacchio, Leao, and Ibrahimovic are absent.
Celtic – Forrest, Griffiths, and Johnston are absent.
Lille OSC – Celik, Pied, and Sanches are absent.
Sparta Prague – Hlozek, Karabec, Kozak, Polidar, and Stetina are absent. Hancko and Sacek are doubts.
Qarabagh FK No absentees.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Saborit is absent. Glazer returns.
Sivasspor – Djerlek, Felix, and Rybalka are absent.
Villarreal CF – A. Moreno, Gomez, and Alcacer are absent.
LASK – Grgic and Trauner are absent.
Tottenham Hotspur – Alderweireld and Lamela are absent.
Antwerp – Boya, Coopman, de Pauw, Pius, and Verstraete are absent. De Sart and Nsimba are doubts.
Ludogorets Razgrad – Cicinho, Marin Escavy, Renan, Santana, and Wanderson are absent.
CSKA Moscow – Dzagoev, Fuchs, Karpov, Kuchaev, and Nababkin are absent.
Wolfsberger AC – Baumgartner is a doubt.
Feyenoord Rotterdam Bijlow, Conteh, Bozenik, Fer, Haps, Jorgensen, Malacia, Sinisterra, and Nieuwkoop are absent. Van Beek is a doubt.
Dinamo Zagreb – Gavranovic is absent.
Red Star Belgrade Gobeljic, Kanga, and Rodic are absent.
TSG Hoffenheim – Bicackcic, Stafylidis, Hubner, Geiger, Bruun Larsen, and Adamyan are absent.
AA Gent Chakvetadze, de Bruyn, Kleindienst, Marreh, Plastun, and Yaremchuk are absent. Depoitre is a doubt.
Slovan Liberec – No absentees.
AS Roma – Pastore, Zaniolo, Veretout, Mancini, Santon, and Smalling are absent. 
Young Boys Bern – Lauper, Martins-Pereira, Petignat, and Spielmann are absent.
CFR Cluj – Ben Yousseff, Cestor, Deac, Hoban, Omrani, and Vinicius are absent.
CSKA Sofia – No absentees.
Arsenal – Kolasinac, Martinelli, Ozil, Sokratis, and Partey are absent. Mari, Luiz, and Chambers are doubts.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Ljubicic, Petrovic, Schobesberger, and Velimirovic are absent.
Molde FK – Haraldseid is absent.
Dundalk – Hoban and Massey are absent.
Slavia Prague – Hovorka is absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Acolatse, Vitor, and Agudelo are absent. Josue is a doubt.
OGC Nice Dante, Boudaoui, Atal, Dolberg, Kamara, and Schneiderlin are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Aranguiz, Arias, S. Bender, Palacios, Paulinho, and Tapsoba are absent.
SL Benfica – Almeida, Pedrinho, Tavares, and Todibo are absent.
Lech Poznan – Szymczak, Cnonomarkovic, and van der Hart are absent.
Rangers – Edmundson, Jones, and Katic are absent.
Standard de Liege – Boljevic, Muleka, Balikwisha, Avenatti, Amallah, Oulare, Sylvestre, and Vanheusden are absent.
Omonia Nicosia – No absentees.
PAOK Salonika – Augusto, Giannoulis, and Mihaj are absent.
Granada CF – Diaz, Kenedy, Lozano, Montoro, and Azeez are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Ihatteren and Thomas are absent. Gutierrez, Obispo, Romero, and van Ginkel are doubts.
AZ Alkmaar – Helmer and Svensson are absent. Clasie and Vlaar are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Osimhen is absent. 
Real Sociedad – Guridi, Illarramendi, Sangalli, and Sola are absent.
Rijeka – Ristovski is absent.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen – Cools, Kone, Poulain, and Sowah Adjei are absent.
KV Mechelen – de Camargo, Vranckx, and Engvall are absent. 

Brazilian Serie A:

Goias Andrade, Baggio, Bessa, Chico, Sandro, and Vinicius are absent.
Sao Paulo – Walce, Boia, Alves, and Liziero are absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Europa League:

AEK Athens vs Sporting Braga (6) 1-2
Zorya Lugansk vs Leicester City (6) 0-1
AC Milan vs Celtic (6) 2-0
Lille OSC vs Sparta Prague (6) 2-1
Qarabagh FK vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (5) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Villarreal CF (5) 2-2
LASK vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 0-1
Antwerp vs Ludogorets Razgrad (6) 1-0
CSKA Moscow vs Wolfsberger AC (5) 0-0
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Dinamo Zagreb (4) 0-1
Red Star Belgrade vs TSG Hoffenheim (5) 1-1
AA Gent vs Slovan Liberec (5) 1-1
AS Roma vs Young Boys Bern (6) 2-1
CFR Cluj vs CSKA Sofia (6) 1-0
Arsenal vs Rapid Vienna (6) 2-1
Molde FK vs Dundalk (6) 2-1
Slavia Prague vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (7) 2-0
OGC Nice vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) 1-2
SL Benfica vs Lech Poznan (6) 2-1
Rangers vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-0
Omonia Nicosia vs PAOK Salonika (6) 0-1
Granada CF vs PSV Eindhoven (6) 2-1
AZ Alkmaar vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1
Real Sociedad vs Rijeka (7) 2-0

Copa Libertadores:

Gremio vs Club Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1

Copa Sudamericana:

Union La Calera vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1
Vasco da Gama vs Defensa y Justicia (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Universidad Catolica vs River Plate Montevideo (6) 1-0

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen vs KV Mechelen (6) 1-0

Brazilian Serie A:

Goias vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-2

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