TFT Issue 3282!

Osnabruck vs Karlsruher SC

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

Osnabruck have had a surprisingly good campaign to date. You have to keep in mind that they lost their manager and some of their best players pre-season, and those ‘best players’ were ones that they found and matured, not players that were already proven at this level, ergo they’re not exactly in a position whereby replacing them is very easy to do. With that in mind, one defeat from nine Bundesliga 2 games is pretty damn impressive. I’m not surprised that they’re still battling as they are, but I am surprised that they’re as effective as they are.

Now, the reason for this form of theirs is that their attack works. In general, they’ve rolled with young Ihorst as target man, and then sat Amenyido and Santos off him. Santos is the better finisher, but Amenyido is a greater threat physically. Between them though, Osnabruck score goals. That’s worked especially well against superior teams that were expected to beat them because they, like me, were expecting Osnabruck to fold far easier than normal this season, which simply hasn’t happened yet. With a full-strength team, it’s become very apparent that, for at least the first-half of the Bundesliga 2 campaign, Osnabruck should be handled with kid gloves.

However, the wheels are slowly falling off at Osnabruck behind the scenes, not that the form guide shows it much. Firstly, they lost their best goal-scorer Santos to injury – he’s not played at all in November. I’ve not heard if he’ll be able to play today or not for certain, so I’ve listed him as a doubt, but based on the injury he suffered, I’m inclined to believe he’s still out. Now they’ve also lost Amenyido too. Without those two, their counterattack becomes a towering Ihorst, which isn’t going to scare many teams. Sure, they’ll still be a threat from open play but it’s not enough to make me worry against seasoned veterans like Karlsruher SC.

Indeed, I rather fancy the visitors to win this one. Again, Osnabruck are not a very good team, but have certainly performed well above their station this season. Karlsruher SC had a very slow start to the season themselves but their potential is well-known – when big Hofmann is fit, of course! He was missing at the start, hence their poor results, but since he came back, Karlsruher SC have looked very good indeed. Again, I wouldn’t say Karlsruher SC are an especially good side themselves; there’s not much between them and their hosts tonight. However, Karlsruher SC have more experience and a better proven method of winning games at Bundesliga 2 level, and that’s important.

The visitors are without Djuricin tonight, but given that he’s not done much for a while now, I’m not going to lose sleep over it. Gueye and Kother can support Hofmann, and Wanitzek is in inspired form at the moment, so Karlsruher SC are not short of offensive weapons. You know, I really do love how effective they are in front of goal. They’re not supposed to be as effective as they are, but they still are, and it happens very regularly. Karlsruher SC really do invoke the spirit of their former Bundesliga selves at times, or so it seems! They may not be the best at winning games when playing as favourites at home, but they’re bloody good at upsetting the apple cart away from home, and that’s precisely the situation tonight.

Under ordinary circumstances, the bookies would be right to have these two teams level-pegging in terms of winning the game. However, with the home team missing their two best attacking threats, and the visitors having been deadly away from home this season, I can’t help but feel that backing Karlsruher SC to win with draw no bet at 4/5 is a good value pick.

Verdict: Karlsruher SC to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

I’m a bit warier of Bohemians 1905 than I was a few weeks ago. Defensively, they’ve become a bit worrying despite their offensive power at the other end. They were too easy to score against when facing Karvina, and the same can be said of their defeat against Ceske Budejovice. 

However, I will take my chances here because they usually up the ante when playing at home – quite considerably – and because of how ridiculously capable they are in attack now. Like I’ve said on countless occasions lately, presumably boring you all into a coma, they’ve signed two excellent forwards in Necid and Pulkrab. Creating chances is not hard for this team to do, but scoring them has not happened naturally in years, at least not until Pulkrab joined on loan from Sparta Prague last season, which was earlier in 2020. Now he’s back for a second loan spell, and Necid is far too good for this level, so Bohemians 1905 really should be looking for a top six finish, not that you’d believe it from their defending.

I couldn’t honestly state that the capital club are performing perfectly right now; there’s still some integrating to do. However, they’re still working hard for one another, they’re naturally scoring goals a lot more easily than before, and thus they stand a greater chance of winning games than before. I appreciate he never fulfilled his potential, but a very experienced Kamil Vacek putting balls into the box for Necid and Pulkrab is only going to bring positive things, for example. Again, I’m not blown away by the Bohemians 1905 defence, which has been very sloppy lately. Their attack should be good enough to carry them to victory versus newly-promoted Pardubice though.

For what it’s worth, I like Pardubice. It took them longer to adjust than I thought it would, but they’re finally beginning to show the cohesion and tenacity that got them promoted in the first place. They impressively kept hold of most star players from last season, and it’s doing them any harm at all. I would be slightly concerned that their top goal-scorer right now is joint between defender Surzyn and young backup striker Huf, but that’s something for another transfer window. For now, Pardubice have been giving a good account of themselves, and I can’t help but wonder what their form guide would look like had they actually managed to play in their home stadium this season.

Pardubice are not going to make this game easy for their hosts; of that I am certain. However, their work-rate should not be as hard to handle here, given that it’s a natural trait of their hosts. When that happens, they’re in trouble, just as they were in away games against Banik Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav this season, which both ended in convincing home wins for their opponents. Break through their energy, and Pardubice are often found wanting at the back. Bohemians 1905 are energetic enough to do it, and are deadly enough in the final third to make it count.

Therefore, I cannot possibly look beyond the home win at 4/5 here, as it’s far too long, all things considered. 

Verdict: Bohemians 1905 to win at 4/5.

Arminia Bielefeld vs Mainz 05

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I am beginning to feel very sorry for Arminia Bielefeld. They are what Union Berlin could have been had Andersson not had the best season of his career, after all, which ultimately earned him an overpriced move to Koln. That was enough to keep Union Berlin up, and that allowed them to sign players from a good position, and folk are happier to sign if they know they’ll be playing at a good level, which the Bundesliga is.

Arminia Bielefeld haven’t been as lucky though. Their only semi-decent striker – Voglsammer – hasn’t played much this season because of injury, and even now he’s back, nothing has really got going yet, at least not in an attacking sense. This team does not have a proven goal-scorer at this level, to be frank, and nobody looks like stepping up to the plate either. Schipplock has played at this level before, and he works very hard. Cordova can be quite skilful but also frustrating because of inconsistency. Big Klos puts himself about well but if Terodde can’t do it at this level, then he sure as hell can’t either. Bluntly put, Arminia Bielefeld do not have a proven route to goal – and it’s killing them.

They’ve not played badly since promotion, actually. I’ve been impressed with them, for what it’s worth. Their form guide is horribly damning but other than the massacre in the capital, I think they’ve contained teams as well as they could be realistically expected to with the squad they’ve got. I like that they’ve got Doan and Edmundsson to make things happen in midfield; they add a bit of something special that their more efficient players lack. However, every goal against Arminia Bielefeld at the moment is a killer because they aren’t scoring enough, and I expect more of the same today.

I mean, few Bundesliga teams are happier to concede stupid goals than Mainz 05; we all know that, even the statistics whores. However, Mainz 05 have survived at this level for a long time now because they’re battlers and they’re natural goal-scorers. They’ve been playing rather well of late too. It’s not simply a case of going unbeaten in three either – they’ve played well for five matches now, in my opinion. Things have not always gone their way because of, like I said, horrendous defending. I cannot escape that risk element here; they might concede too many goals to win this one. That’s the risk.

However, their firepower, even without creator Oztunali, who will now be out until January, really should be too good for Arminia Bielefeld to deal with here. The away team look decidedly confident and focused at the moment. French forward Mateta is, rather surprisingly, in the form of his life, now bagging seven goals in nine appearances. Onisiwo will never be a top player but he’s better at being a handful now. Ji is beginning to show some signings of the great player he used to be. For me, the star has been Quaison though. A bit late to the party, but he’s finally showing just how good he can be.

All of the above has led to the continued omission of club legend striker Szalai, which is both sad and yet progressive for them. Boetius has come on leaps and bounds too, always either making something happen or winning fouls, legitimately or not. To phrase it rather simply, Mainz 05 look really good in attack. They’re fast, familiar, clever, and have become rather clinical too. If it weren’t for their atrocious defending, I think they’d be getting a lot more credit than they are. A game against impotent Arminia Bielefeld should not be all that challenging for them, to be honest.

Yes, I have my concerns about Mainz 05 containing their hosts, but with odds of 4/5 available on the away win with draw no bet cover, I’m happy to take the risk.

Verdict: Mainz 05 to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Vejle vs FC Midtjylland

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

After a draining encounter in Italy mid-week – in which FC Midtjylland finally got a positive result after a string of positive yet unrewarded European displays – it would be logical to expect the reigning Superligaen champions to struggle today. That’s not my opinion, though. They’ve got nothing left to play for in Europe with bottom spot now guaranteed, so there’s no sense in there being rotation here, which is a handy starting point. I appreciate that the likes of Anderson and Sisto are out anyway, but the visitors have enough depth to cope in general anyway.

For this one though, it’s more about the problems Vejle have had lately, and how easily Superligaen teams have been tearing them apart. On paper, a centre-back pairing of Milosevic and Ojala should work really well at this level – but it’s not. As much skill and drive as they have in midfield too, there’s still only one that has composure, which is Iran’s Eztolahi – the rest are a bit zany, and it jeopardises tactical approaches to play in such a manner. That wasn’t quite so evident at the start of the season as teams struggled to handle the attack they had somehow cobbled together, which contained Sousa and Dwamena, the latter of which is far too good for this level. Teams were not expecting such quality – but I was. They’ve got a good attack, Vejle.

It’s easy to be duped into thinking that Sousa is their main forward too – but he’s not. He’s scored more goals than Dwamena this season, it’s true, but most have come from the spot, and most have come in games where Dwamena has been playing because he’s so hard to handle. I would not hesitate in stating that the Ghana striker is now indispensable to the team – but he’s out. Hilariously, Vejle have only just discovered that he has a heart problem, which the Swiss media published boatloads about when he was at FC Zurich as it ultimately scuppered his move to West Ham United. It’s not a secret, in other words, but Vejle have only just ‘found out’. Whilst he’s been out, everything has gone to shit for Vejle, to put it bluntly.

They’ve made it abundantly clear that defending is not something they want to be any good at, and their over-reliance on Eztolahi to control games for them is a bit too easy for opponents to figure out. Subsequently, they’re not seeing enough of the ball, they’re not using it anywhere near as well without Dwamena, and their defence may as well not be there. Therefore, even after a tough mid-week game in Italy, I am sure you can all see precisely why I fancy FC Midtjylland here.

The away team have Evander, Kraev, Dreyer, and Mabil to call upon here. Vibe is able to play, as is big Kaba, so they’ve got options up front. The last I heard was that their best poacher, Schwarz, is now fit too, so he should be returning sooner rather than later. FC Midtjylland have the quality to hurt their hosts today, and their sheer athleticism plus high press should absolutely destroy a Vejle team that cannot control games at the moment. Honestly, this could be a massacre. No promises, as I really don’t know whether the visitors will want to conserve some energy for their redundant European game against Liverpool next week or not, but the away team have no excuses for faltering here.

Therefore, I’m on the reigning champions to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Verdict: FC Midtjylland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.