TFT Issue 3322!

Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

A surprisingly good start for the Central Coast Mariners is going to come to an abrupt end sooner or later. I believe that time will be today. I do think that they’ve shown improvements this season, the Mariners, but they’re still a poor team with lots of weak spots.

They’ve won the F3 derby already this season against one of the few teams that are nearly as bad as they are – Newcastle Jets. It should be noted that, in that match, they gave away boatloads of chances that Newcastle Jets never took, and that their own goal was opportunistic and fortunate to say the least. They did create lots of chances themselves, but seldom looked like taking them. Then they beat newbies Macarthur FC by sitting back, being hard to break down, and countering with speed. Eventually, that paid off, but it wasn’t a hard game for the Mariners with Macarthur FC still struggling for familiarity and cohesion. 

Therefore, in a way, you could view today’s game as their first proper test of the season. The good news for the Mariners is that Costa Rican striker Urena can now make his debut. He’s not particularly good, mind you, but with very few actual strikers on their books, he’s a welcome addition. I mean, I like what Matt Simon brings, one of the last of the Aussie ‘old guard’ at this level, flying into every challenge, and he’s a monster in the air. He’s not a natural finisher though. Nor is Urena, but I’d still take the Costa Rican in a one-on-one than Simon. I also think that Bozanic has settled in wonderfully in front of the back four, and that Nisbet has matured an awful lot on the right. There are positives here, basically.

There are more negatives than positives, though. For example, centre of their defence is terrifying, and not in a good way. I mentioned above that there’s a lack of a goal-scorer too. There’ll be a clearer indication on where they stand with creativity when Janota is able to play but for now, de Silva is not enough. He’s played well lately but it seldom lasts, and he’s something of a injury-prone player too. There’s a lack of flair in their attack too, and they seldom actually control games. That’s not a team that should be able to handle Western Sydney Wanderers today, to be frank.

Western Sydney Wanderers got a good draw in the Sydney derby last weekend. It could be argued that they should have won it too. They starved nervously, and were lucky that Sydney FC lacked penetration. Still, the only time that the Sky Blues found the net in that game was from a penalty (which never, ever was one!) before they gave away a sloppy goal to make it 1-1. Again, Sydney FC fell apart after the seventy minute mark, and Robinson cleverly loaded the pitch with Yeboah, Ibini-Isei etc. as Western Sydney Wanderers ran riot 0 but couldn’t find a winner. I think they’re improving with each passing week though, today’s visitors.

No, their transition from caterpillar to butterfly is far from complete but the early signs are encouraging. I’ve still not seen anything that reassures me with regard to a defensive partner for McGowan at the heart of their back four (five? They’ve been using wing-backs under Robinson) and Mourdoukoutas is an accident waiting to happen. His errors should have given Sydney FC at least one goal in the derby but he got away with such. I doubt the Mariners would be clinical enough to punish such either but it’s only a matter of time before somebody does. 

I like the rest though. I’m happier with their attack, even without a replacement target man for the departed Duke. There’s a really good understanding developing between Muller, Cox, Troisi, and Baccus. The secret to their ‘success’ has been their wing-backs though. Tate Russell is arguably the most promising full-back in Australia, and his conversion into a wing-back has only made him better. He’s brilliant at both ends, and has one hell of a shot on him too. Aquilani on the other side is younger, and it shows in some of his decision-making and finishing, but is still very dangerous with his speed. With such options in their squad, Western Sydney Wanderers have multiple routes to goal whether it’s a wide game or narrow game from open play, fast counters, or even set pieces, for which they have some very good takers.

All in all, there’s a real quality gap between these two teams. I can’t guarantee an away win because the A-League can be a bit crazy, and the visitors are still learning lots of fun, new things. Based on what I’ve seen though, and the clear differential in class, backing the away win at 11/10 is a must here. I promise you that when these two teams next meet in the A-League, you’ll be lucky to get 1.75 on Western Sydney Wanderers winning because today’s visitors are only going to get better with time. My tip today basically relates to me thinking that Robinson’s boys are ahead of where they should be in their transition, and that the bookies are really overrating the Mariners because of their positive start to the season.

Verdict: Western Sydney Wanderers to win at 11/10.

Goztepe vs Genclerbirligi 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Handicaps in Turkey are bold at the best of times, but there simply won’t be a better opportunity than this for Goztepe to beat one. They’ve done quite well under the radar this season, today’s hosts, considering that key defender Gassama has now been made into a backup, Mossoro still gets into their midfield, and Ideye has somewhat flopped in attack. That’s three of their best players since Beto left so they’d have every excuse under the sun for falling apart – but they haven’t.

Instead, they’ve become a team that finds it easy to play good football, and that generally helps keep opponents away from their goal. I would not be so bold as to call it tactically astute from Goztepe but it’s impressive and it works, for the most part. It would work even better if they were consistently good finishers. Still, they have a wonderful set of options up top in terms of whether they want to play with speed, aerial power, or intelligent movement. They’ve got the right midfield to support any style, too.

I mean, I may criticise Mossoro for still getting in the squad at his age but he’s still got that class and experience, you know? Guilherme, Akbunar, Tripic, and Aydogdu have all been excellent this season too. They are what allows Goztepe to stay in games almost all of the time, and they’re the ones that basically decide what’s going to happen. As was evident in Konya last time out, that can lead to good things sometimes. I’d like to think that today’s home game against one of the weaker Super Lig teams, Genclerbirligi, would produce a similar outcome, although it’s hard to imagine the visitors being quite as spineless today as Konyaspor were last time out.

However, although Genclerbirligi may not lack spine for this trip, they do lack playing personnel – and they’re in no kind of position to have depth. Kizildag, Candeias, Yilmaz, Stancu, Artan, and Sio are absent whilst Ayite, Nordfeldt, Johansson are doubts.That’s their best finisher, their best target man, their best creator, and their best defender all definitely out today, whilst their most lively attacker, number one shot stopper, and best defensive organiser are all doubtful to make the cut too. Genclerbirligi simply cannot afford to play without those players.

I’ll freely admit that handicapping Goztepe is risky; the bookies are right to price it long. However, I do think that they’ve underestimated how woeful the situation is at Genclerbirligi right now. They still haven’t gotten used to life without playmaker Sessegnon, although the directness of Piris Da Motta, Yildirim, and Candeias has helped. They still don’t have a proven goal-scorer with Stancu injured too often. They also still don’t have a defend that can be trusted to keep teams out. They’re in a lot of trouble this season, the visitors, and have not looked as likely to lose a game this season as they do today.

Turkish football has been unkind to me in recent times so I would not go heavy here. This is not a team that should be able to do anything but lose against a slick Goztepe side today. For me, 13/10 on Goztepe winning by two goals or more with insurance on a one goal margin victory is a risk worth taking. 

Verdict: Goztepe to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 13/10.

Kayserispor vs Istanbul BB 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Istanbul BB being better than Kayserispor is a secret to nobody. I also think it’s fair to say that Turkey has been tainted by Covid-19 more than any other country when it comes to football with more away wins than ever because there are no fans allowed at this time. Fans make a huge difference at Super Lig level. However, despite the above, the short odds on the visitors here is an absolute joke, and I’ll explain why.

Istanbul BB’s campaign has been completely derailed by their European antics. They put in some decent showings in Europe but have failed to demonstrate the same level of interest and attention to detail that they did in Europe. Subsequently, they’ve not only failed to win most matches, but they’ve lost far more of them than they should have, some of which were from very strong positions. The quality of the Istanbul club cannot be called into question, but if they’re not proving it on the pitch, why should they be respected?

Limping to wins against BB Erzurumspor and Ankaragucu does nothing for me, I’m afraid. I still remember the Istanbul BB that were turned over by Alanyaspor away from home, drew at home against Kasimpasa, and incredibly drew 3-3 at home against the most impotent team in Turkey at the time – Denizlispor. Their form has improved slightly since then but again, it’s not happened against good teams, and it’s certainly not happened because they’re now patching things up. It’s happened by chance against lesser teams, for the most part. I think a trip to Kayseri at a time like this is a real problem for the reigning champions.

For starters, they’ve not got enough flair in their attacks. Target men, yes, and good set piece takers, absolutely, but not enough natural creativity, which means that lessened work-rate is far more damaging to them than it would be to an average team. Giuliano and Chadli were brought in to make that difference but Chadli is out right now, and Giuliano is struggling to link midfield and attack because of a lack of natural pace in the squad, which means everything slows down. Their defence is still strong but they’ve been making too many uncharacteristic individual errors, and they’re giving teams too much of the ball compared to in the past. Why a team like that should be priced as short as they are tonight, I don’t know.

Admittedly, Kayserispor have gotten a few things wrong this season. I don’t think they were anywhere near well-prepared enough for the season ahead when it came to actually creating chances, and their general play in the final third was just woeful because of it. However, to be fair to them, they identified their weakness, and addressed it, bringing in rampaging full-back Behich to provide a bit of an x-factor, as well as utter class playmaker Fernandes, who knows the Super Lig well. Behich’s arrival on the left balances things out, lessening the dependency on Lennon on the right, freeing him up a bit more. Fernandes being there glues everything together and boom, suddenly you have an attack that works – in theory.

It wasn’t enough though, so Kayserispor axed their manager – and that’s where things began to get interesting for me. The Turkish media speculated a few different names but I saw on Twitter that Dinamo Kiev boss Lucescu announced it would be his fellow countryman Dan Petrescu that was to be the next Kayserispor manager, and so it proved to be. That interests me a lot because he’s a seriously good manager. He proved it an awful lot in Russia, as well as in his homeland too. Why he was never given a shot in a bigger league, I honestly don’t know – he’s definitely got the brain for it. I’m usually highly skeptical about foreign managers managing in Turkey because it’s a bloody hard league to get used to – but Petrescu is an exception. He’s smart enough to make Kayserispor into something good.

Since he took over, they’ve beaten Yeni Malatyaspor in a solid enough display, and fought well against athletic Gazisehir Gaziantep, although they ended up losing 2-1 because of a late penalty from Maxim. You can already see the work that the Romanian is doing at this club, though. For example, the only goals they’ve conceded since he joined were an own goal and a penalty – not bad for a painfully slow defence in a very fast league. His team has been controlling games fairly well, and that’s allowed Henrique and Fernandes to shine, which in turns has made Behich and Lennon more dangerous. I’d love to see them move for a proper poacher at this level (e.g. Stancu) or get one of their own to stand up and be consistent in front of goal because if that happened, you’d see a very different Kayserispor; of that I am certain

Still, even without a designated goal-getter, I think that Kayserispor now have enough about them to frustrate Istanbul BB. Therefore, I’m on Kayserispor with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Verdict: Kayserispor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

Is it just me that think that Dortmund have been fools lately? I may not agree with the sacking of Favre, but if that’s the road the club is going to take, there’s got to at least be a long-term replacement in mind, not just somebody from elsewhere at the club to keep things ticking over until the end of the season. What kind of message does that send? Should their fans just not bother watching for the rest of the season? I think it’s really short-sighted from them in lots of ways, and I also think that their displays in 2020 have been quite poor.

Yes, Dortmund won in Leipzig but keep in mind how many players their hosts were without on the day. I thought they were poor in the DBF Pokal against Eintracht Braunschweig, poor at breaking VfL Wolfsburg down, and really poor against Mainz 05. Indeed, you could make the argument that without Hummels and Akanji bagging from set pieces, Dortmund would never have won any of those matches other than the one in Leipzig, which was a game that simply played right into their hands. 

To put it bluntly, I think that Dortmund look naive right now – at both ends. They’ve conceded really sloppy goals against teams that have not had to do a great deal of preparation in order to score them. They look poor at defending against balls in behind their defenders, and even worse at set pieces where their predominant lack of height and lack of a good goalkeeper tends to shine through. The only good part of this team is its attacking, and let’s be honest – that’s only because of Sancho and Haaland. Reyna struggles for consistency, as does Brandt, Hazard struggles for fitness, Dahoud will never be good enough, Bellingham is showing promising signs but isn’t ‘there’ yet, and Reus’ best days are behind him. I’ll give credit to adventurous wing-back Guerreiro too – his runs provide a lot of directness that is generally lacking in this squad. The same cannot really be said of Meunier on the other side though, who frequently runs into cul-de-sacs.

As important as Haaland and Sancho are to this attack though (and Moukoko in the years to come) it’s the midfield controllers that Favre brought in that has steadied the ship over the years, namely Witsel and Can. Those two ensure that the team controls more matches than normal, sees more of the ball, and use it more intelligently whilst also lending a certain composure to a team that is severely lacking in it. Those two are the heartbeat of the team, and as far as I am concerned, at least one of them must be on the pitch at all times in order for the team to function. That theory’s going to be put to the test at the BayArena tonight as Dortmund are without both of them. I like Delaney, but he’s not the same type of player, and Leverkusen is a dangerous team to play against without the ball.

The Leverkusen form guide is not particularly nice at the moment. As is always the case with Bosz teams though, it can be explained. Look, a team like this is only ever going to thrive in open games; that’s their bread and butter. Put them up against a team that will sit back with some kind of organisation, and they’ll struggle. That’s what happened in Berlin last week too. Union Berlin carved out three seriously good opportunities in the second-half of that game by sitting and countering whereas Leverkusen lacked that bit of decision-making and technique in the final third, especially from Diaby, who simply does not have the composure to play at this level – yet. 

That’s what Leverkusen have been up against lately – teams that know how to defend against pace. Union Berlin are one of the most tactically flexible teams in the Bundesliga. Bayern Munich are the best team in Germany. Frankfurt have a brilliant manager. These teams are annoying to break down, and thus Leverkusen struggling is not a great surprise. They love playing against teams like Dortmund though. The result may not always go their way, but this kind of showdown really allows Leverkusen the chance to show what they’re about. Bosz’s teams only ever know how to attack – just ask any Heracles Almelo fans out there! – and I suspect they’ll put on a good show tonight.

See, Dortmund are not capable of stopping Leverkusen. Leverkusen have some very overrated forwards, it’s true. Far too many rave about Diaby, for example, and Bailey has finally been found out now that Havertz and Brandt have moved on. Bellarabi is an amazing dribbler but not a great decision-maker. Demirbay is the only one of them that is constantly switched on, you know? Amiri could join him if he stopped mouthing off once in a while. However, despite that, they do thrive in such situations. Their players may not be the best, but their tactics in such a game tend to be very good, which allows them to play to their strengths. That’s when Leverkusen shine, especially now they’ve finally got a good striker in Schick. I had to laugh in their game against Union last week. The commentators on BT Sport were surprised that top goal-scorer Alario wasn’t named in the starting eleven. He’s not a starter because he’s not very bloody good, and one fluke season does not change that! Well, perhaps that’s harsh of me – I like his movement and his aerial prowess, but there can’t be many worse finishers than the Argentinian in the Bundesliga in general.

This game should really suit Leverkusen though. Forget their weaknesses; they play with an intensity that Dortmund will find hard to deal with. Dortmund can’t sit back and contain them, and they can’t control this game without Can and Witsel either. If Leverkusen press them properly in midfield, don’t have anybody sent off, and don’t make too many horrendous defensive gaffes, they should win this game at a canter. They could not ask for more favourable circumstances than those that are present tonight, at least not when it comes to hosting Dortmund.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on backing the home win with draw no bet cover at 6/5.

Verdict: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win with draw no bet at 6/5.