TFT Issue 3328!

Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory 

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

If Glory hadn’t played three games in six days, this would be my pick of the day. However, taking a punt on the visitors after such a run is risky, and it cannot be considered to be anything but that. The A-League generally has games every six to seven days, for clarity, and teams struggle enough for the few months of the year that they managed to stay in the Asian Champions League because that involves playing mid-week. This run is going to be very testing for the westerners; there’s no getting around it.

However, that’s literally the only thing that stops me going hard on the visitors today. I think Garcia has made an exciting start to life as a manager of the club, opting to play Fornaroli and Keogh together, which is very ironic considering that the Uruguayan’s arrival ultimately led to the Irishman’s departure a couple of years back. Anyway, they’re both very experienced, dangerous attackers. Fornaroli is the more natural finisher, but Keogh’s movement and aerial prowess affords him something that the diminutive battler does not have. Together, they make a surprisingly good duo.

The bottom line is that Glory have now bagged nine goals in two games. Considering that their absolute star attacker, Diego Castro, hasn’t kicked a ball in either match, and that their second best attacker, Chris Ikonomidis, is still injured, that’s pretty damn impressive. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve not had to pepper their opponents’ goal in order to achieve it. I don’t really think that Adelaide United challenged them but credit to Glory for still going out and winning all the 50/50 battles to keep those talented kids on the back foot. Against Western United, they didn’t deserve to lose; a draw would have been much fairer, and a 1-1 draw at that. How the game ended 5-4, I honestly couldn’t explain to any of you. Pretty much every shot on target in the second half went in, and those type of matches are very rare. Still, it does showcase how much work Garcia has done with this attack, and I like it.

The Glory defence does bother me because they’re not at all in synch yet, and that’s been evident in both of their recent matches. For now though, we only really need to worry about teams with the potential to outscore them, and with team news in mind, Victory are not one of those teams – for now. Assuming they’ve got enough left in the tank, Glory should be able to rattle at least a couple of goals in today, and if that doesn’t give them the win, I’ll be surprised. Let’s not forget that Castro is actually back today too, although Garcia has said he won’t rush him so it may be from the bench. I can’t see any real reason to not back the visitors here, though – they look a good few weeks ahead of Victory in terms of fitness, which in itself is a joke, considering that they only played their first game of the season six days ago!

On paper, I quite like what Brebner has done with Victory, especially in attack. In reality, Gestede has looked a really good target man, McManaman has been superb at dribbling and shooting from range, Butterfield has made things happen but…that’s about it. Rojas is their best player, and he’s not shown up yet. He was pretty much invisible against Adelaide United, and Victory saw a fair amount of the ball in that game. Kruse has only just come back after a long time out, and even he looked far ahead of Rojas, which in itself is something of a paradox.

The bad news for Victory is that, as per usual, they can’t get their best players fit. Gestede pulled something – looked like his hamstring – against Adelaide United so he’ll be out for a bit. McManaman picked up an injury; he’s out too. Ansell didn’t even play because he’s already injured, leaving new centre-back Shotton in defence alongside youngster Ryan, who got bullied by Toure against The Reds. Mind you, I can’t hold that against him – Toure was bullying Shotton before that! That kid has got some future in the game. Anyway – three of what will be Victory’s regular eleven will not be playing today because of injury. 

Now, this is not the Postecoglou side of old; they don’t have depth. Subsequently, when somebody gets injured, they’re screwed. That’s even truer at the start of this campaign because, as I said above, Rojas is nowhere near his best yet, Kruse has only just come back, Kamsoba is as inconsistent as ever, and now McManaman and Gestede are out, so what will their attack be? They didn’t lose against Adelaide United because they were outplayed; they lost because they literally had nobody in the box when crosses were put in after Gestede went off. Nobody can play that role, not with Folami also out, who is supposed to be Gestede’s understudy. Now they’re struggling for dribblers too. That’s enough of a problem by itself.

However, then you have to consider their defensive situation. Ansell and Shotton – I have no problem with that pairing. Ansell being out = a problem. Ryan wasn’t horrendous against Adelaide United but he did show his weaknesses, and Shotton struggled against pace. That, plus an overly adventurous Storm Roux at right-back leaves gaps, and that’s not failed to be exploited by either Brisbane Roar or Adelaide United, so why would Perth Glory become an exception here? Simply put, there’s no way this squad can work together with so many regulars out. Glory may have their complications from playing too many games in a short space of time, but their hosts have problems with not having their best players available for one reason or another.

For me, this game should be all about how many Glory want to score. Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Perth Glory to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Waasland-Beveren vs KV Mechelen

KO: 17:45 (UK time)

The reality for tonight’s game in Belgium is that Waasland-Beveren are missing a lot of important players. They’ve been without defenders like Gamboa for a while now, but adding the likes of Wuytens and Wiegel to the equation is just taking the piss, really. They’re not great defensively anyway, Waasland-Beveren, but playing without them makes tonight’s hosts sitting ducks. They don’t keep clean sheets in general, and haven’t won a game for ages, thanks in no small part to their defence. Their attack is struggling too though, which is most unlike them. That’s usually their pride and joy.

Of course, it’s in attack where they’re missing players too. Attacking midfielder Heymans has been their leading light this season, and he’s available at least. However, they’re somehow not giving Luxembourgian star Sinani enough starting berths, Swiss target man Frey’s confidence was shot to shit years ago so he’s struggled, and now Koita is out, who is their joint top goal-scorer this season. What’s left isn’t crap, but it does lack purpose and efficiency, which has cost them a lot lately. I think it’ll cost them against a good KV Mechelen too.

One area they’re not short of personnel is in defensive midfield, though. Bertone and Mandjeck are very good at playing that role, and will do their best to ensure that their suspect defence isn’t ripped apart too often. For that reason, and that reason alone, I think that it’s not going to be a massacre of an away win here, if indeed it does lead to an away win. I believe Waasland-Beveren can still make things complicated for KV Mechelen. The advantage is certainly in the hands of the visitors, though.

Other than a humbling defeat against superior Standard de Liege, KV Mechelen have won all of their last six games, including beating high-flying OH Leuven, tough Sporting Charleroi, and a very good Antwerp. Vrancken’s men have looked confident and surprisingly organised in an Eerste Klasse that generally walks hand-in-hand with chaos. It’s all down to him, too. Belgian clubs tend to be very good at finding unknown talents that serve as a catalyst for an excellent campaign, but that’s simply not happened for KV Mechelen this season. Alright, Hairemans is having his best ever season in midfield, and youngster Vranckx has attracted a lot of praise, but neither of them have carried this team.

No, everybody has contributed, ranging from experienced battler de Camargo up front to Schoofs in midfield to Coucke in goal. It’s nice to see Mrabti doing it at a higher level too. He was a good player in Sweden for years but always lacked that consistency, you know? This time around he looks really settled and effective though, darting between lines, picking the right passes etc. It’s a very efficient setup, and Vrancken’s management of the team affords them a bonus in each match because they look too smart for their opponents. I suppose that’s what you get for keeping a manager in charge for two or three years; someone that knows how to get the best out of his players. I can’t see someone like that, with a good team like this, failing to capitalise upon Waasland-Beveren’s absentees tonight.

For me, it’s an away win, just as it was last season.

Verdict: KV Mechelen to win at 4/5.

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Heidenheim 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

I’m just a shade uneasy about opposing Eintracht Braunschweig at the moment because they’re putting in some very gritty displays, the kind a team needs to put in when threatened by relegation without having enough quality to get them out of the equation. Ok, that’s not led them to wins, but it’s led to two good draws, and a spirited encounter against Hamburger SV last time out, which they should have gotten something from. Hamburger SV may be bottlers, but for a team of this lack of quality to match them, and to do the same in their 0-0 draw against Fortuna Dusseldorf, tells you that this team is improving.

The Eintracht Braunschweig board didn’t have to stick with Meyer, you know. I think they’d have been within the rights to wield the axe after the start they had to the season, not that I agree with that approach one iota – it’s just what everybody does nowadays, seemingly. They stuck with him though, and perhaps we’re beginning to see things turn around for them. I mean, new recruit Behrendt at the back has settled in perfectly, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’ve kept two clean sheets whilst the ex-Arminia Bielefeld man has been on the pitch. This is becoming like the old Eintracht Braunschweig; a team that is really annoying to actually beat, as they amply demonstrated in their nine-men 0-0 draw at fellow relegation scrappers Wurzburger Kickers. 

Having said that though, they still lack a goal threat. I’m not arsed about two goals scored against Hamburger SV either, a team that seemingly takes great delight in affording opponents good opportunities with which to score goals. No, what I am interested in is how they’re going to score goals against similar teams because that’s what’ll keep them up, not surprising a team that’s pushing for promotion. Proschwitz is alright at best, Abdulahi’s head has gone, and as experienced as their midfield is, there’s not enough goals there. Kobylanski carried them in the division below last season but has found it much harder to do so this season at a higher level. Without a striker or creator joining in this transfer window, I fear that even this battling spirit they’ve recently unearthed will not be enough to keep Eintracht Braunschweig from relegation.

They’re not going to have it easy tonight either. Heidenheim have specialised in being efficient in every conceivable way at this level over the past few years, whether it’s in grinding out wins via the best method available to them, or whether it’s in replacing good players that they’ve sold for big bucks. Nothing seems to faze Heidenheim, really. For such a limited team to play so consistently well is beyond admirable. More than that, they’re entertaining too, and there aren’t many clubs at this level that are stronger mentally than they are. They’re a very tricky customer, Heidenheim, and their displays in 2021 have mostly been very good.

Kuhrwetter is in outstanding form this season; the ex-Kaiserslautern man will be keen to finally bag against Eintracht Braunschweig, having failed to do so at his past or present club. It’s easy to praise Heidenheim strikers, but the reality is that it’s Schmidt’s setup that allows such players to flourish. Glatzel and Kleindienst did it before him; now it’s Kuhlwetter’s turn. None of those players have gone on to set the world alight, either, which tells you it’s all about the manager. Considering Schmidt is now entering his fourteenth consecutive year as manager of Heidenheim, it’s not hard to work out why they’re so settled and efficient in everything that they do. It’s a remarkable story, this one-club man, albeit one for another day.

Everybody gives their all for Heidenheim; you can’t get near that starting eleven otherwise. Despite Kuhlwetter’s goals, there are no heroes in this squad. Some players are a little better than others, but each plays a role as part of a unit, and it’s the unit that is successful. One week it’s veteran midfielder Schnatterer that is the hero. Then it’s Leipertz. Then it’s Mainka. Then it’s Mohr. There’s always somebody to pop up when they’re needed the most, and I really admire that about Heidenheim. They’re incredibly flexible, industrious, and effective; everything a Bundesliga 2 team should. They were dark horses in the promotion race last year, and were desperately unlucky to lose the play-off against Werder Bremen, having matched and arguably outsmarted them over two legs. I would not bet against them actually going up this season because both mentally and physically they’re in a very good place.

Although I think it’ll be a slog tonight for the visitors, I do think that they’ll win it. They’ve got better attacking threats, a stronger balance to their squad, and more experience than their determined hosts. Therefore, I’m on the Heidenheim win at 21/20.

Verdict: Heidenheim to win at 21/20.

VfL Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

This is a good time to face Osnabruck. I expected them to struggle this season after serious losses pre-season, both on and off the pitch, but they defied all expectations and set the Bundesliga 2 alight with very spirited and efficient displays. However, they’ve lost that element of surprise now; clubs know what they’re about, and their subsequent lack of depth to change things up is kicking them in the balls right now. I still think Grote has done a marvellous job since joining from Werder Bremen U19 but the reality is that this club has seriously overachieved this season – and time is finally catching up with them.

Over their past three matches, they’ve lost at home against relegation-threatened Wurzburger Kickers, been humped by Hamburger SV, and lost at home against Erzgebirge Aue. On the face of it, those defeats might not look so damning – but they are, even the hammering against Hamburger SV. As talented and superior as the afore-mentioned unquestionably are when compared to minnows Osnabruck, the reality is that Hamburger SV are still playing at this level because they’re complete bottlers. To go down 5-0 against such a team can only happen when the work-rate isn’t there. 

I don’t find it coincidental that they’ve lost against Erzgebirge Aue and Wurzburger Kickers either, with that in mind. That’s another two teams that you’ll generally beat with the right attitude, but struggle against without it. You can argue that they were unfortunate in certain segments of each of those two matches but I still think that they’ve been the architects of their own downfall at Osnabruck. Greuther Furth are yet another team that you need to work hard against, and remain vigilant against – two things Osnabruck are seriously struggling with right now. Therefore, I anticipate a long night ahead for the home team.

The only thing Greuther Furth need to be wary of is that their hosts have a better finisher than they do in Santos. He’s not looked the same since coming back from his spell on the sidelines, but he’s an excellent finisher; too good for this level, to be honest. He and Amenyido are particularly uncomfortable to play against, and Ihorst has his moments too. They may not be at their best right now, but disrespecting them and underestimating them is the fastest way to ensure that they get back to their best. Luckily, Greuther Furth are not a complacent team. Good teams can best them, but it generally takes one hell of an effort to manage it.

Unlike most of their contemporaries at Bundesliga 2 level, Greuther Furth are smart. Really smart, actually. They may need Mavraj (who is fit tonight) in order to have a properly functioning back four, but it’s the organisation of the team that generally makes them hard to break down. I certainly would not call Greuther Furth a ‘defensive’ team, but let’s say that they’ll do what it takes in order to win by attrition. If that involves frustrating opponents along the way, so be it. Like all teams at this level, they prefer to attack – but generally haven’t had a good enough attack over the past few years to make attacking viable.

Indeed, it was always Green and Keita-Ruel that carried this team – but not any longer. So confident are Greuther Furth in Bundesliga level forwards Nielsen and Hrgota that they allowed Keita-Ruel to join SV Sandhausen, and that was a very fucking bold move on their part. This season has proved Leitl right, though – Hrgota and Nielsen have been excellent. Now, although Greuther Furth can counterattack well, they no longer have to rely upon it, which is yet another big step forward for them. They’ve got the personnel to make a difference from open play, in other words, and that’s made them even harder to anticipate.

This relative chameleon of a team knows how to frustrate teams, and how to score goals. What more can you realistically ask for? All this has happened without Berggreen, who is unsurprisingly injured, but remains a very talented attacker on his day. Sarpei has finally come into his own, and both Seguin and Ernst have contributed significantly from midfield this season instead of the old over-reliance on Green. They’re getting an awful lot right, Greuther Furth, and other than against the top team in this division, I generally fancy them to do well nowadays. 

With the above in mind, I can’t help but feel that Greuther Furth are going to deliver yet another telling, mature display against a regressing Osnabruck side, and that really should result in an away win.

Verdict: Greuther Furth to win at 19/20.