TFT Issue 3352!

HIFK vs FC Lahti

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

Lahti at 71/50 to beat HIFK away from home? I’ll have a slice of that action! As you’ve all season, I already like Lahti. I backed them to not humiliate themselves against a far superior HJK, and they drew 1-1. I backed them to hammer KTP,  and they won 3-0. Despite two very impressive displays, they’ve recently gone out and picked up Spanish playmaker Hervas, who was cut loose by Honka. That is a very impressive signing, if I do say so, and he joins an already impressive squad. I don’t see there being any issues with quarantine either, as I don’t believe he left Finland after finishing at Honka.

Whether he plays today or not doesn’t really bother me, though. This is a good squad that is thriving at the moment because they’re more settled than most others competing in the Suomen Cup. They’ve made some changes, sure, and some were forced upon them, but all of their new players had been playing in Finland anyway. The playing field will even itself out in a month or two but for now, Lahti have a distinct advantage over most Finnish teams, and HIFK is not an exception to the rule.

I mean, although their lack of consistency last season annoyed me, I recognised the potential of what I’d happily describe as the best Lahti team in ages. Their centre-backs are really good, and experienced too. They’ve now got very dynamic attacking threats in Hertsi and Assehnoun, and a good natural creator in Klinga whilst Eninful does the dirty work, and Virta flirts between the two. Yes, I acknowledge that I need to see one of their strikers stand up and be that designated goal-getter because none of them currently do for different reasons – but time may prove otherwise. They’ve got a bit of everything though, Lahti, and a manager like Zeneli will always have the capacity to surprise.

I’m sure you can see why I’m not afraid to back Lahti to win in the capital today with the above in mind. HIFK are not a bad team but they’re at a disadvantage right now because they were forced into more changes than Lahti pre-season. I mean, they were deadly last season after their managerial change mid-way through the campaign. Some players in attack really did shine, namely Henrique, Vitinho, Mattsson, and Fofana. I can’t really exclude Yaghoubi, either – he’s the heartbeat of everything good that this team does in the final third; it’s just his consistency and temperament that are the usual issues, although he kept his head rather well last season.

Unfortunately for the capital club, Yaghoubi was one of the few to stick around with Mattsson, Fofana, Henrique, and Vitinho all moving on, which was to be expected with most of them on loan to begin with anyway. Target man Tukiainen has stayed, as has midfield engine Mattila, but that’s not enough for HIFK to hurt teams. They’ve attempted to rectify their losses by acquiring Entrena (I’ve not seen enough of him to comment) and Isaksson, the latter of which I know to be a good signing. For me though, there’s a very real problem with attacking in this squad, and that should be very evident here.

So – HIFK have a new manager in Gomez, who only joined last month, and has no experience of managing in Finland. He’s brought a couple of countrymen with him that he knows, but that’s it. Somehow he’s got to remind Tiquinho of how to be the top-drawer creative threat he used to be, as well as maturing young striker Streng into their designated goal-scorer because nobody else is going to do it. All of this has to happen without any real flair players, which concerns me. They beat KTP away from home, which wasn’t exactly a great challenge, but really let themselves down in the derby against HJK last time out. HJK are the better team but even against ten men, I never felt like HIFK would go on to make the most of it; it was too easy to defend against them. I think we’ll see more of the same today too.

Therefore, I’m happy to take my chances on the away win here.

Verdict: FC Lahti to win at 71/50.

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Gorica

KO: 16:05 (UK time)

With Sibenik having burst into life in 2021, Slaven always capable of pulling off shock results, and both Varazdin and Istra starting to dig their heels in even more in the battle against relegation, Lokomotiva now need to be very fearful. Dinamo will almost always bail this team out in the end but at some stage they might not, such is the fickle manner of the reigning champions. 

For me, Lokomotiva have been rather arrogant in 2021. I thought they’d gotten things together just before Christmas but now they’ve messed it all up. I appreciate that they can’t do much about their manager leaving for better money in China, but to lose the players they’ve lost without signing appropriate replacements is poor. If this team actually had any fans, I’m sure they’d be livid by now. 

In general, Lokomotiva have really felt their mid-season losses though. They’ve put in some really uninspiring displays, only scraping by with the odd goal from time to time. If they ever managed to get Jelavic and Budimir fit and firing, they’d actually have a good attack – but they can’t, and thus, they won’t. They’ve got some good Balkan kids, as ever, but other than an overweight Sammir and new signing Males (pretty sure he’s still in quarantine), they’ve got nothing to offer going forward. Pivaric and Papadopoulos are good defenders; that’s the main challenge with breaking down Lokomotiva. This is not a good team though, and it’s not a good time of year to have serious issues in their squad.

Gorica are simply a better team nowadays, largely thanks to the Lithuanian cash that funds them. They’ve made good buys, but it would be unfair to pretend that they’ve just relied on individuals bailing them out each week. I actually think that their managers have done really well with this team this season, even though they’ve changed more than I’d like (did so again in January with Orescanin taking the reins). I think that speaks volumes for the budding togetherness and cohesion in this squad.

Subsequently, this somewhat harmonious setup now has match-winners like Hamad and Dieye in their squad, which makes Lovric’s life a lot easier. They’ve even added Delfi and Martinsson-Ngouali in recent weeks to further strengthen an already impressive team. They’ve become surprisingly competent at defending too, which really wasn’t visible earlier in the season. Jovicic, Steenvoorden, Doka etc. have really gelled, and they’ve been very well-protected by Suk etc. It’s a nice setup that Gorica have going right now.

Gorica have not conceded in three matches now, and have won two of them. They look fit, focused, and effective. I do want them to score more goals going forward because they can’t keep every team in Croatia out. For now, though, one goal should really be enough to see them beat Lokomotiva, especially with their hosts missing most of their attackers today Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: Gorica to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

SC Kriens vs Chiasso 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

There are two trains of thought about this game. One is that Chiasso have played well enough to outplay Grasshopper Zurich away from home, and to give FC Schaffhausen a damn good game at home too, so surely beating Kriens away from home has to be worth a flutter? Chiasso, on their day, can be a very annoying opponent, so I get it. However, the other train of thought is the one I subscribe to, which is that Kriens are not only better than Chiasso, but in a good position to prove it right now.

See, I was worried for this team earlier in 2021 because, somewhat inevitably, they lost their star striker, Abubakar. He’s gone to play for Lugano, and that fella carried Kriens at times last season – and this season too, actually. I was all set to oppose them after his departure. They lack a goal threat without him, really – that’s the problem. Kriens were never going to be atrocious after he left, but they were going to struggle to find the net. However, I should have known better than to doubt them and their efficient ways because they’ve now gone out and sourced very handy replacements indeed.

It’s well-documented that they got Selasi from Lugano as part of the Abubakar sale, and that they acquired Marleku from Luzern, but I’m not so interested in those moves. No, the moves I’m interested in were those of Kryeziu (defender) from FC Zurich, Luan from FC Sion, and the homecoming of Sessolo after a very brief stint with Ethnikos Achnas. Now, Kryeziu has had injury problems, Luan has never progressed since moving to Switzerland, and Sessolo is no Nuzzolo or Calla. However, all three signings are very good for Kriens with Kryeziu able to improve an already reasonable defence significantly, and Luan adding an element of unpredictability and speed to a team that needs it the most in attack, which is where the Brazilian plays.

For me, the most exciting acquisition is Sessolo though. At this level, he’s carried FC Schaffhausen before. He’s a naturally feisty, tenacious, talented ball-carrier; yet another creative threat that teams struggle to deal with. His movement is very good too, meaning he usually gets more than his fair share of goals. The arrival of both him and Luan is going to make veteran target man Tadic’s job a lot easier now. They should also free up space for talented Yesilcayir to exploit. Mulaj and Djorkaeff have had their moments this season too, but Sessolo and Luan should add the glaze to the cake here. In short, I really like where Kriens are now at. I would add that I think Sessolo is most likely still in quarantine (no confirmation from the source I use for Swiss team news) but Luan and Kryeziu should be able to play, and I can’t think of a better game for them to make their mark in. I believe Kriens will be far stronger because of these new arrivals, and if you fuse that with their naturally workmanlike displays, good things await.

I won’t deny that beating a confident Chiasso side is annoying, though. It really is. Chiasso have no better weapon than their work-rate; it’s that simple. That’s why Grasshopper Zurich always struggle against them; they can’t be arsed running as hard as the southern minnows. Unusually, FC Schaffhausen had the same problem last time out, at least in the first-half. Kriens aren’t afraid of hard work though, so Chiasso need to find something else here. That something else can stem from Bahloul, who is miraculously still at the club when he should be playing for someone far better by now. He’s the only one with composure in front of goal though, which is a problem.

Chiasso are seldom far away from creating chances because of their industry, their capacity to turn on the ball in midfield, and their natural speed in wide positions. However, putting the ball in the net does not come naturally to them, and even Bnou Marzouk has forgotten how to do that job since returning to Switzerland, sadly. Try as they might, they simply cannot find a solution; even loanee Manicone, who joined them from neighbours Lugano in the division above, is yet to find his first for Chiasso. Against a resolute Kriens side, I can see their pain in front of goal continuing.

Chiasso are very good from set pieces, though – that’s where Kriens have to be careful. It’s not Chiasso’s attack that I want to focus on here though, because that’s a predictable area of their team. No, it’s their defence I want to dissect. Since acquiring full-back Pavlovic, they’ve avoided defeat against two teams that are a lot better than they are because there’s now a better balance to their back four – but he’s out today. Fellow defender Stabile is another absentee. Winger Hadzi is a big miss for them, as he’s one that always keeps defenders on their toes, whether there’s an eventual end product or not. Pasquarelli is another that keeps the ball moving swiftly, and he’s another that’s out too. 

Chiasso may not be that good so players being out aren’t so hard to replace, if you follow me. However, these absentees are significant, especially if veteran defender Morganella fails his late fitness test. They’re not going to make Chiasso shit, these absentees, but it is going to limit their speedy transitions, and it is going to limit their capacity to deal with opponents’ attacks. This is not a team that can afford things like that to happen. As well as they’ve played lately, Chiasso, I’m struggling to figure out what it is that they bring to this game that makes them worth fearing because Kriens work just as hard, and they’re far better-placed to make any chances count.

With the above in mind, the home win at 13/10 appeals to me.

Verdict: SC Kriens to win at 13/10.