TFT Issue 3394!

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: 10:05 (UK time)

Although I’ve seen more vulnerabilities in the Mariners defence recently, I’ve still seen that same resilience that causes opposing teams so many problems. I mean, they just overpowered Adelaide United with energy and pressing, which is something that teams haven’t done to The Reds for weeks, and that led them to a deserved three points last time out. They may not enjoy playing on the front foot, being expected to make things happen, but they do enjoy it when teams come at them, which is precisely what will happen in Sydney today.

As is always the case, Western Sydney promise entertainment under Robinson. Some of it is intentional, and some of it isn’t. Their attack is designed to always be in games – and they are. I mean, I don’t think that they played especially well in Brisbane last time out, other than for the first fifteen minutes, but they were never out of it either. I’d argue that they created better chances than Roar, although Roar had more chances overall. As ever, Western Sydney looked dangerous in spells but never really controlled the game. More of the same is to be expected today with key central midfielder Dorrans now suspended too.

Western Sydney are forever creating chances, though. No, they don’t convert enough of them, but if you create as many as they do then scoring is going to happen, sooner or later. Take your pick, really – Duke, Cox, Kamau, Yeboah, Muller, and Ibini-Isei are all really hard to defend against for different reasons, although all of them are quite happy to run the channels where required. Troisi and Baccus will thread passes well for them, and with overlapping runs from Russell (back today), and Aquilina/Wilmering, they’re going to score goals in most games, and I’d like to think that’d happen today too.

Western Sydney can’t defend tactically though. One-on-one, sure, but not tactically. Teams that get at them properly will score; it’s that simple. I don’t know what the solution is for that particular problem because they don’t have bad centre-backs; they’re just playing in a system that doesn’t suit them. That’s going to make defending against the Mariners very hard today, to put it bluntly, especially given their impressive wide game plus give-and-go moves through the middle.

Again, the Mariners prefer to play in games like these; they’re far more dangerous when teams give them space. Bouman and Stensness may be slow (although deceptively clever), but Nisbet, Casella, and Kuol are all very mobile players. Urena and Simon are faster than they look too, and they have a very good understanding already. I couldn’t label either of them as a clinical finisher, but they’re both good in the air, and they’re smart enough to create, even if they’re not scoring.

With de Silva pulling the strings in midfield – and he’s been awesome this season – the Mariners are going to cause Western Sydney issues here. Bozanic has done a brilliant job in front of the back four this season but even that hasn’t prevented cracks from appearing lately. They’ve looked a bit suspect on Nigro’s side, and their refusal to do anything but play out from the back is leaving them a bit exposed when pressed hard, which is what Victory did to them for a little while, and Adelaide did too. The Mariners are fitter and more tenacious than most though, and that’s why it’s very complicated, opposing them.

The Mariners have more between their ears than their hosts, but are lacking in as much quality, which is why this game is a bit of a coin toss from a 1×2 perspective. I would argue that it’s impossible for the Mariners to maintain the form they’ve shown this season without serious reinforcements arriving so the law of averages should mean that they lose more going forward. Both teams are going to have their chances today though, and that should logically lead to goals, given the chances each team tends to create.

Therefore, I’m on over 3 goals at 51/50.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 51/50.

Lyngby vs Vejle 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Earlier in the season, I’d have definitely been on Vejle here. They looked really good after promotion, having made some seriously impressive attacking acquisitions. They surprised a lot of teams, played lovely football, and scored lots of goals.

However, since then, things have levelled out quite a lot. In fact, I almost feel compelled to say that they’re on the decline. Some of it can be attributed to the Dwamena situation, of course. Why it took them so long to discover his heart defect, I don’t know, but they then cut him loose in February of this year after a period on the sidelines. Dwamena was their best forward, the one who distracted all defenders with his pace, his strength, and his movement. I lost count of how many penalties they won because of him, which is why Sousa’s goal-scoring this season looks better than it actually is. So, yeah – Dwamena has been cut loose, and there’s no sign of a replacement.

Then there was the Milosevic situation. The idea was that he’d partner Ojala in the middle of defence this season, which on paper, works like a charm. However, it wasn’t working out so they cut the Swede loose, and then brought in big Croatian Kolinger instead. For a short period of time, that appeared to work. Now Vejle’s defence couldn’t keep a cow out. Although I applaud Vejle’s forthright way of addressing situations that arise, it’s fair to say that it’s not worked out for them. 

Earlier in the season, even when things weren’t going their way, they still threatened opposing goals and that was usually enough for them to both score goals and also keep teams away from their own goal. Now, though? It’s pretty sketchy and sporadic at best. There are players making good runs but they’re too greedy, and seem to have tunnel vision. The passing out of midfield is good but the intelligence of overlapping runs isn’t there. These players almost seem to get a bit too giddy at times, you know? The only bright spark remaining in their attack is their emerging wonderkid Faghir, especially as new target man Onugkha isn’t on the same page as his teammates yet.

The only real composure in this squad is in Iranian midfielder Ezatolahi, who is far too good for this club. If he’s still at Vejle next season, it’ll be a miracle of some kind. Sit on him though, and you sit on Vejle. It doesn’t stop them from having the ball in the final third, but it does tend to stop them from using it properly. An attack-minded team doesn’t tend to defend all that well anyway, and with new defenders in the equation, and uncertainty as to who the number one goalkeeper is, it’s not hard to see why Vejle are conceding and not scoring. 

That’s why I fancy Lyngby today. The home team aren’t all that good but they’re very experienced at beating the drop, largely because it’s something they have to do every season. To be fair to Lyngby, they approach each game with tremendous gusto – which I love – and they still try to play very attractive attacking football. It sometimes bites them in the arse, but in general it will see them cause their opponents problems, particularly at the business end of the season. Lyngby are just one of those teams that tend to perform better when the pressure is on, and that’s certainly the case now.

Now the Superligaen has been split into two, the fixtures for Lyngby are a lot easier. They’re still going to have ups and downs, especially with Aalborg BK and SonderjyskE in the group (who are both too good for them), but it’s certainly preferable to facing the reigning champions, or either of the big Zealand clubs. As I said above, Lyngby tend to come into their own at this time of season. They know the value of home wins, and their Superligaen form recently has been very impressive. This is not the kind of team to face without some kind of consistency and structure because of how tenacious they are, and how strong their cohesion is.

I think it helps that Lyngby only have Danish players too, you know? Such teams tend to have a stronger level of togetherness, and that really does make Lyngby awkward to play against. I think they’re going to be really hard for demoralised Vejle to play against today, and that this represents a great opportunity for the home team to pick up three points in the battle against relegation. Vejle may have a better team on paper, but everything else favours Lyngby right now, and that’s why I fancy them to win at evens.

Verdict: Lyngby to win at evens.

Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

With VfL Bochum having beaten them last time out, Greuther Furth having claimed a last-minute winner at Heidenheim, and Hamburger SV having played well against Hannover 96 before conceding three goals to draw instead of win, it’s fair to say that Kiel can’t let their blip last time out play on their minds. The games are coming thick and fast, and if they intend on being promoted this season, they need to win.

I think they’ve struck gold by facing Heidenheim today though. Furth ran Heidenheim ragged last time out, and although the late winner may look fortunate, it was a fair outcome on the balance of play. I was actually rather disappointed with Heidenheim on the day, who adopted a surprisingly cowardly approach, especially when you consider how generous Furth have been at the back lately. Heidenheim played against them as if they were facing Bayern Munich, you know? It’s unusual to see Heidenheim lacking in adventure, but that’s what happened. To me, that says that promotion is not actually on their agenda this season.

To be fair, the points gap is substantial now. Not many are capable of stringing together enough wins for Heidenheim to be categorically ruled out of the title race but by the same logic, it seems improbable that they’ll go up. No regrets, and all that – they only really improved their squad enough for a promotion push in 2021, which isn’t soon enough. They’ve given it a good go though, and have fallen flat when it mattered the most, losing against both Greuther Furth and Hamburger SV respectively; two teams that they’re supposed to be trying to catch.

Heidenheim do tend to be rather strong mentally so I don’t expect those defeats to demoralise them too much. Having said that, I also think they recognise the futility of their promotion push, based on their tactical approach last time out, and that makes me think they’re in trouble here. There wasn’t enough forward passing in that game, which meant chances for Kleindienst were limited at best. They just lacked that bit of freshness and creativity, and it cost them against a good, motivated team. More of the same can be expected tonight.

Holstein Kiel are infamous for their motivation, and it’s been that way ever since they were promoted to the Bundesliga 2 a good few years ago now. They seriously impressed me back then with the quality of the football that they played, and the way in which they entered each game, confident in their ability to outscore teams. They were marvellous, and deserved to be promoted but fell short in the play-offs. Since then, they’ve dropped off a bit, trying to replicate the same attacking style without the same quality. However, this season they’ve completely changed their style, and it’s gone down a treat.

Now Kiel look more defensively organised, and better at controlling games. I still couldn’t state that this team is defensive, but they’ve become a hell of a lot better tactically since Werner properly got his feet under the table last season. Now they’ve become a team that is good at most things. I absolutely love how composed they are, from front to back. They’re getting the absolute maximum out of the players that are in their squad, ranging from busy forward Serra to experienced midfielder Bartels, and the efforts this team religiously puts in to be hard to beat as a unit are very, very impressive. I’ve seen this team outsmart Bayern Munich in the DFB Pokal; it’s not a team to underestimate.

They’re not just grafters, though. They’ve got some serious talent in their squad, especially Korean midfielder Jae-sung and former Werder Bremen talisman Bartels. Muhling is in the form of his life too. You really have to fight to get into this squad, which I really admire about them. I can’t honestly state that they have especially clinical finishers but they’re a genuine threat from every situation, not least because defender van den Bergh insists on getting forward at every conceivable opportunity. There’s a lot to like about this settled group, in short, and it’ll take more than a defeat against a top-drawer Bochum team for me to suddenly stop trusting them.

I won’t deny that tonight’s game will be really tough for Kiel, but it’s one that they need to win if they intend on pushing for promotion. I don’t see them losing it, not with Heidenheim favouring a far more cautious approach lately, but at odds of 83/100, I’m prepared to take a chance on the visitors winning with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Holstein Kiel to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Manchester City vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

At some point in each UEFA Champions League campaign, City’s heads go. I’m hoping that’s not tonight, or we’ll be in serious trouble. I don’t see it happening now, though. They’re not facing a very good team, and they’ve been absolutely untouchable in the Premier League lately.

I don’t mean to be disrespectful to one of Germany’s biggest, most well-supported clubs, but they’re only a big club nowadays by name. They seldom deliver big team displays, and I can’t remember when they last legitimately hoped to win silverware, although ironically they should be able to win the DFB Pokal this season now that Bayern Munich are out. I think Dortmund can only really blame themselves for their current position, you know? Sacking managers at the wrong time, or falling out with them (looking at you, Watzke!) in public etc. has led to a lot of inconsistency, changed styles, and thus changed players. Therefore, any good that has been done has quickly been undone, the latest example of which is Favre. He did a good job of turning this club into a competitive outfit once more but a few negative results cost him his job. 

Based on this rashness from Dortmund, I can only assume that the goals of this club do not align with what is realistically possible. It’s as if they expect to be able to challenge mighty Bayern Munich without putting in the legwork – and there’s no shortcut to doing that, I’m afraid. What the club seems to forget is that these periods of change and upheaval tend to make players want to move on when they can too, which further sets them back. I mean, do you imagine that they’ll be able to keep Guerreiro, Haaland, and Sancho in the summertime? I don’t. The only way they’ll manage it is if Covid-19 has impacted enough clubs financially to prevent them being bought because nothing else will keep them in Dortmund.

For now, they’ve got inexperienced boss Terzic leading them. He’s lost the majority of his hard games since taking over, and his team seldom leaves games without conceding, and isn’t effective enough tactically to worry opponents. In summer, Gladbach boss Rose will take over, and I feel sorry for him because it seems impossible to do a good job at this club nowadays – and he’s a really good manager. For now, it’s the apprentice manager leading an unconvincing, uncertain Dortmund team that has some very talented individuals but also some glaring holes in their line-up. Key attacker Sancho is one of their numerous absentees here, as well as midfield maintainer Witsel. That, fused with a slow Dortmund defence (mentally and physically) and a below average goalkeeper makes me think that Dortmund’s race is already ran as far as the UEFA Champions League is concerned.

City should really be too good for them here. You all know how good a manager Guardiola is, and he knows Dortmund well enough by now. His team is playing brilliantly in every area of the pitch, controlling games well, defending well, and converting their chances excellently. I really can’t pick fault with them at the moment. They’re going to win the Premier League this season, and they deserve it. They’ve been extremely mature and consistent, particularly after a disastrous start, and it would not surprise me to see them finally reach a UEFA Champions League final this season, especially with the lack of competition.

In the last round, City dominated Gladbach twice; it was too easy for them. Gladbach are at a similar level to Dortmund, and play a similar style. I can see a very similar game ensuing. Remember that Dortmund like to keep the ball, not just because it helps them in attack, but because it helps keep teams away from their shocking defence. Against City, they’ll be lucky to even see the ball, let alone use it, and that’s never a good idea. That defence is not going to be able to contain Sterling, de Bruyne, Foden, and Silva. I shouldn’t be as confident as I am when it comes to a big competition at a late stage, but I really can’t see how City would struggle in this match.

For me, the -1.5 Asian Handicap is worth backing.

Verdict: Manchester City to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at evens.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

As a Manchester United fan, you should all know that I really won’t be shedding any tears if this tip loses. I despise Liverpool more than I do any other club because that’s how it is when you’re a United fan!

That said though, I like to think I’m objective enough to appreciate other teams, and Liverpool have been brilliant over the past few years. They’ve had some typical Klopp issues this season with injuries and not having enough depth, but are still a very strong team with a good, experienced nucleus. I think there have been signs lately of a resurgence; they were particularly professional and efficient against Arsenal at the weekend. I also think that the UEFA Champions League is their only real goal this season now that defending their title is officially over as they’re no longer able to catch Manchester City mathematically, never mind realistically.

Europe is very much on the table for them though, purely because nobody else is any better off than they are, really. You can argue that Manchester City will give them a good game, and Bayern Munich cannot be ruled out of the equation (although nobody wins it twice in a row), but who else is there? Spanish football is at a very low ebb. Paris Saint-Germain are far too easy to play against for good teams. Why shouldn’t Liverpool believe in their capacity to win this game, and indeed the competition? Tactically, they’re very good, and few teams are as mobile as they are.

Indeed, I believe mobility will play a huge part in tonight’s game. Real Madrid have world-class players but a lot of them in the twilight of their respective careers. Benzema may be better in goal than he has been in years, and Modric is still an outstanding playmaker etc. but there’s not a lot of speed in this team. They struggle to deal with direct passes behind their defence because they’re slow. They struggle when overloaded in midfield – because they’re slow. They don’t even have an especially good counter anymore because – yes, you guessed it – they’re slow! If Liverpool sit back and let them play, then Real Madrid will show them how good they can be. I don’t see that being a viable Klopp approach though, not for a single second.

No, I expect Liverpool to put Real Madrid on the back foot from the start, and if they do, the game is theirs to decide. Key defender Ramos is out for the hosts, as is midfield warrior Valverde – two players they could really do with being on the pitch for this one. Hazard is still out of course – do you think they regret buying him yet?! – and so is full-back Carvajal. It’s more experience that they’re lacking, and I wouldn’t even fancy their chances here with those players. I think Real would need to move the ball a lot faster, and would need a hell of a lot more stamina and mobility in order to deal with an energetic Liverpool team.

Real Madrid are a dangerous team to underestimate, of course. I thought Atalanta Bergamo troubled them significantly in both legs in the last round but the Spanish giants still won both games, after all. That’s why it’s important for Liverpool to take their chances tonight, something that the Italians failed to do. That tie was yet another example of a waning Real Madrid side though. Good teams should not struggle to deal with them nowadays, in essence, at least not those with a tenacious high press.

Again, with the proviso that Liverpool don’t sit back and let Real play, backing the visitors to win with draw no bet is a bit of a steal at 83/100.

Verdict: Liverpool to win with draw no bet at 83/100.