TFT Issue 3401!

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar 

KO: 10:05 (UK time)

I recently backed Western Sydney to beat Roar, which failed. It deserved to fail too. That game in particular marked a new type of Western Sydney, which was still evident against Adelaide last time out, and Robinson will be tearing his hair out if it carries on because they’ve been awful. Truly, truly awful. Last time out, they were quite genuinely outplayed by ten men. It was little more than a miracle that they equalised in that match. Against the Mariners, only introducing Kamau changed things for them (as they weren’t creating anything) and even one of his goals should never have been allowed into the goal from veteran shot stopper Birighitti. 

Against Roar, they at least had a fifteen minute spell at the beginning where they ran the show. I don’t know what it is with this team, though. They seem to take great delight in completely losing their focus. Their passing over the past two weeks has been unforgivable, misplacing basic ten yard passes, or playing teammates into trouble with sloppy distribution. What they fail to acknowledge is how bad they are at dealing with tactical attacking. It’s not so bad, this cavalier passing business, if you’re scoring goals at the other end. However, Western Sydney have opted to fuse wayward finishing and a lack of chance creation with poor ball use in midfield, which will rarely end positively for any team.

Robinson is not an idiot; he’s brought in Mutch to help them control games better in midfield. However, he’s been injured a lot, and will probably still be today too, based on how things usually work in the A-League, and Dorrans doesn’t have the legs to do it by himself. Even Baccus has started to slip off the wagon, which is even more dangerous. This team is not going to create many chances via a direct approach, especially not against those that defend well. On the counter, yes, but nothing other than that – and Roar defend well. That’s why they were barely threatened after the opening fifteen minute period, and that’s why they should have gone on to win the game, considering the chances they squandered in the second-half.

Western Sydney seem to have more and more issues creeping in now. The only ones in the final third that can do anything out of the ordinary are Ibini-Isei, Cox, and Kamau. Kamau tends to start on the bench for reasons that are beyond me. Cox has been benched a lot since Duke’s return. Ibini-Isei is good but not as fast as he used to be so getting him involved is tough. Presumably, that’s why they’ve been so intent on playing out from the back, which is where youngster Natta comes in. McGowan and Ziegler tend to provide the muscle, but it’s teenager Natta that has been playing out from defence this season with a maturity far beyond his years. He may not have a typical defender’s build, but I really like him. He’s stronger than he looks, reads the game well, and distributes excellently, even under pressure. He got himself sent off against Adelaide last time out though, having been left to deal with Mauk by himself in a one-on-one situation, and you can guess the rest. 

What we now have is a Western Sydney side that have suddenly stopped creating chances, keeping the ball, and now have issues in naming a defence because of McGowan’s injury and Natta’s suspension. I should also throw right wing-back Russell into the equation as he does a lot of good at both ends, and he’s been missing lately too – and I suspect he still will be today, even though he’s apparently ‘back’. Too many things aren’t right at Western Sydney right now, and it’s little more than a miracle that they’ve managed to avoid defeat in any of their last three matches because they’ve seriously been poor.

For me, underdogs Roar should have them on toast here. I trust Roar a bit more in attack now McDonald is back because his movement and finishing are both good; certainly the best of any of their forwards. Wenzel-Halls is confident again now he scored against Macarthur FC, although I must stress that by no means should he ever be trusted to convert opportunities. He’s a brilliant pressing forward, but finishing is not his strong suit! What’s been the most pleasing has been how much Champness has come on lately though. I thought he was their best player in the reversal of this fixture; Western Sydney had no answer for his threat. Mebrahtu has settled in well now, timing his runs better, although again still not a natural finisher. 

Essentially, what Roar bring to games isn’t individual quality; it’s collective quality. They’re arguably the most frustrating team in Australia when it comes to chance conversion, but they’re unquestionably the most frustrating team in the country when it comes to stopping other teams. This is a very fit, tenacious team that uses momentum better than anybody else in the A-League. They give so much in each game, and finding a way past a team that has a squad full of players happy to both attack and defend is very, very difficult. 

It would be unfair to say that Roar are a defensive team though. They know how to do it, and they’ve got a fine shot stopper in Young, as well as two real beasts in the heart of defence in Aldred and Gillesphey. However, they’re a team that recognises that they’re not going to see as much of the ball as their opponents via their own capacity to use it, which is why they play such fit, fast attackers to press opponents. The amount of chances this team has created this season from breaking up play in their opponents’ half is unreal. Fair enough – they’ve not scored enough of them, but the more chances you create, the better your odds are of finding the net.

I watched Roar last time out against Macarthur FC – also from Sydney – and they were inch perfect. The only made one mistake in the entire match by my count, and it allowed the home team to pull a goal back. Other than that, Roar were comfortably swatting away their attacks, constantly hurting them on the break, and scored a couple of goals along the way. They were far more convincing than the eventual 2-1 scoreline suggests they were. I thought they were good in the reversal of this fixture too. This is a team that is slowly getting back to where they were at the start of the season, and that’s nice to see. They’re a very committed, young team; they deserve a good end to their campaign, despite being a limited squad.

I can see Roar being an absolute nightmare for Western Sydney today because they’ll force them into defensive errors, especially with Natta out, and they’ll defend solidly enough to counter well. Hell, they may even play further up the pitch, knowing how bad Western Sydney’s passing has been in the middle third, and simply suffocate their opponents. That’s what Adelaide did, and it worked really well, so why not? As always, my concern with Roar is chance conversion. However, when I can back them at evens to win with draw no bet against a team that is getting a lot wrong, I can’t possibly overlook it.

Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win with draw no bet at evens.

Bohemians 1905 vs Banik Ostrava

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I don’t like opposing Bohemians in the capital, which is why I seldom do it. Few times graft like they do, and over the past two seasons, they’ve made amazing signings like Pulkrab and Necid, which has allowed them the possibility of finishing higher than ever before – not that they’ve taken such opportunities. No, I’m afraid that Bohemians simply seem to enjoy the relegation battle more than anything else because there’s no other reason for them to be where they are in the Liga 1 table this season!

Still, they’ve done enough to push away from that mire now; Zbrojovka Brno are not going to win five of their remaining eight games, and Bohemians are not going to lose enough for it to matter. The thing is that I don’t really think that they can go for a European place next season either. Unless Sigma Olomouc beat Slavia Prague in the Cup (which won’t happen), Teplice would have to win the Cup (never, ever in a million years will this happen) for fifth place to not result in a qualifying berth for the UEFA Europa League. Even so, I see Liberec and Plzen there, the latter of which are in phenomenal form right now, and I just can’t see the scenario ending favourably for Bohemians.

It’s a shame because I really did think they’d be terrific this season, the minnows from the capital, but they were surprisingly poor in the first-half of this season. They’ve recovered a fair amount in 2021, enough so to all but guarantee themselves top flight football next season, but I just can’t see them being able to assemble a squad as good as this again because players like Pulkrab or Necid can play for a far better team at the drop of a hat. Not just that, but how many seasons does Vacek and Jindrisek have left in them? This was an amazing chance for Bohemians – and they’ve blown it now.

That said, they’ve done well lately, going unbeaten in four. They’ve looked good at both ends too. A lack of rotation has caught up with them now, though. They’re missing way too many players for this game. From defence, Hulka, Bartek, and Pokorny are all out, their two best midfielders – Vacek and Jindrisek – are both out, as is emerging midfielder Novak, and it’s even expected that Pulkrab (who is listed as a doubt) will miss out too. I like Bohemians, but those absentees should be too much for them, especially against a well-organised team like Banik Ostrava. With nothing really left to play for, I can see Bohemians dropping off a bit here, and possibly surrendering the three points.

I needed to see Banik win before I trusted them again though, which they did, running out 3-0 victors against Opava. Contrary to what the form guide prior to that game suggested, they’d not actually played badly in any of their recent matches. I mean, in their Cup game against Sparta Prague, they looked remarkably comfortable until a moment of madness from Kaloc gave a penalty away. That’s the thing with Banik – in general, they give very little away. However, they do have that one individual error at the back in them, and it costs them points more often than a team of their standing should.

Their ability to contain teams is good though, and they’ve got all of their attacking midfielders back from injury now, which has been their biggest obstacle in 2021. In Tetour and Azevedo (or Dyjan, as he now wants to be called) they’ve got very natural creators, and the fusion of big Kuzmanovic and rapid Zajic has become good as the season has gone on. They’re littered with quick-thinkers in the final third, Banik, and it makes them complicated to defend against. That’s even more impressive when you consider that their former star winger, Fillo, now operates as a full-back for them!

They’ve got a lot of experienced heads at the back, Banik, and have played surprisingly well in 2021. I really didn’t think that boss Kozel would last as long as he did, but his departure was inevitable really; the goals are simply too lofty at this club. Subsequently, he was axed in February, and in came Smetana. I find Banik a bit more enjoyable to watch now because of it. They’re far from perfect, but they do get a lot more right than their league placing would have you believe. They should be capable of more than this, really, but like I said above, individual errors cost them more than they should.

This is a good, composed, and organised team though. A UEFA Europa League place is far more attainable for them than it is for their hosts, and with Bohemians lacking so many players, I believe Banik will smell blood here. I still see this being something of a cagey affair but it’s one that Banik should control, and they’ve got no excuses for losing it. Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

P.S. Fun fact – Banik have won their last seven meetings with Bohemians. Even the top teams in Czechia seldom have that kind of record against opponents! 

Verdict: Banik Ostrava to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Budafoki MTE vs Diosgyori VTK

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

The Hungarian Liga 1 table doesn’t lie; these are the two worst teams in it right now. The cold, harsh reality is that relegation is likely for both of them. If either of them are to survive though, then winning tonight is paramount. That makes this a very intense game, and one that players need to have nerves of steel for. To me, only one of those teams fits that criteria – and that’s Budafoki MTE.

The visitors have had more money and better quality players for years, but their luck appears to have finally ran out. Being in cohorts with illegal masterminds over the years, the Spanish invasion, and now a team laden with random Croatians that are no better than the Hungarians they replaced – enough is enough. Their fans are revolting, enough so to actually want the team to be relegated from the division, just like everybody else, it would seem. There’s no fighting spirit about this team, no quality, and far too many cavalier, shortcut-takers for a relegation battle. That’s why I don’t fancy them to do – the fact that they’re conceding a lot, not scoring, and thus losing games is merely a handy byproduct.

Sometimes the form guide can be misleading, you see, but no here. Diosgyori VTK really are as bad as the form guide makes them look. They deserve to be relegated – and they will be. It may not happen tonight, and it may not happen next week, but it will because they lack everything that’s required to get out of it. It feels strange to say such with certainty, considering that Grozav is still on their books, but it’s the truth. They may give it a slight go here but they look lost and clueless, Diosgyori VTK, and that’s a team that should be consistently opposed.

I watched Budafoki MTE’s last game, expecting to see them put to the sword by superior MTK Budapest, but that didn’t happen. The plucky visitors got a 0-0 draw, and were good value for it too. They never let MTK put them under the cosh, constantly countered well, and were generally awkward to beat. They played very bravely, if I can put it that way. Considering their lack of quality, their display in the capital was seriously impressive. This is the kind of team with the right belief and right attitude to avoid being relegated, and the form of Zalaegerszegi TE should give them hope that staying up is possible. They do need to win this match, though – there aren’t any easier games than this remaining for them in the current campaign.

The home team are running out of steam, it’s true, and it’s hard to believe that they’ve got enough firepower to avoid the drop. I think they’ve got too much for their opponents here though. They play with too much intensity and conviction for hapless Diosgyori VTK to handle so as long as they get lucky in front of goal, the home win at 7/5 should be a good value pick.

Verdict: Budafoki MTE to win at 7/5.

Aarau vs Chiasso 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

The way Aarau have been playing lately, I would like to think they’d massacre Chiasso tonight, hence the tip. However, I’m not daft; I do watch Chiasso, and I know that they’re playing about as well as they can at the moment. That’s why I’ve opted for more of an ‘insurance’ approach here, just in case Chiasso don’t give a goal away in the first-half.

You see, Chiasso are a pain in the arse to actually beat. They’re the weakest team in the Challenge League, and have been for years. How they’ve survived relegation after using up all of their nine lives, I don’t know. The Swiss FA had to bail them out last season! Maybe this will be the year they finally go down. It seems inevitable, really. We’re talking about a group of part-timers in a division that now mostly contains professional teams. Chiasso don’t have money to buy players; they just pick up freebies and hope for the best. To be fair to them, they tend to do it really well – but I think they’re running out of luck now.

In a way, I’ll be sad when Chiasso go because no team at this level gives a shit more than they do. They’ve got a really Italian competitive nature about them. They’re really good on the ball, considering their lack of quality, and they’re incredibly content when pressing teams, and moving the ball swiftly. Unlike most rock-bottom teams, they’re at the foot of the table because of a lack of quality, not because of poor preparation or lots of injuries. Everything else, they’re actually getting right – it’s just not having enough quality that is choking them.

Unbeaten in three games though, Chiasso are on Cloud Nine right now. They’re barely giving goals away, looking very assured in every area of the pitch, and are looking surprisingly good on the break. They’re not converting chances well enough, as per usual, but they’re grafting and they’re confident so let’s not disrespect them. I watched them beat a far superior Winterthur recently – and Chiasso were light years ahead of them on the pitch. Winterthur were poor, it’s true, but Chiasso were electric. Bahloul and Bnou Marzouk have the “X” factor on occasions to be the difference in the final third but if they’re shackled, Chiasso shouldn’t score here.

The problem for Chiasso is that they’ve picked a really bad time to face Aarau. Ordinarily, Aarau are mentally weak and lazy, or at least so it proved over the past few years because they signed top-drawer players, and there was seldom any cohesion between them and the standard Challenge League players. Now they’ve got more of a Challenge League squad though, Aarau look and feel very healthy. They were still inconsistent earlier in the season, naturally conceding too many goals, but without enough effectiveness in the final third. Then they had injury problems earlier in 2021, most notably with Gashi out, so they’ve not really had a chance to show what they’re capable of.

Lartely, though? They’ve been sensational – and I don’t say that lightly. They were comfortably better than FC Schaffhausen in their 1-0 win – and that’s a team that should, in theory, be too good for them to beat. Then they absolutely pummeled lifeless Winterthur in the Schweizer Pokal to secure a tie with Luzern in May. Last time out, they won against Neuchatel Xamax away from home too. At that time, Neuchatel were playing rather well, and it was widely considered that Aarau not only didn’t have to win, but that they may be too tired to win after a mid-week game.

I watched that match, and Aarau were superb. They had Neuchatel hemmed in at the end, and even with tired legs they managed to find a winner. The old Aarau would not have tempted fate by pushing for a winner, but this Aarau did. Because everything at this level was so close, their run of wins has suddenly launched them into being promotion contenders – and why not? Mentally, they’re in the right place at the business end of the season, and with only bottlers Grasshopper Zurich and under-strength FC Thun ahead of them, why not? At this moment in time, there’s no team in this division I like more than Aarau.

Their experienced heads are doing well, but it’s their kids that are standing out the most. Stojilkovic got the winner against Neuchatel last time out, for example, and their Kosovans in midfield have been superb this season too. Even Almeida is beginning to remind everybody in Switzerland of his potential. That, fused with the return of star attacker Gashi, should really mean that Aarau have too much for Chiasso, both in terms of what they produce on the pitch, and in terms of what’s going on upstairs. As I said above, in the past Chiasso would have outfought them, and intimidated them rather easily – but I don’t see that happening right now. Aarau are too confident and too dangerous, and Chiasso just don’t have anything else but work-rate to offer

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Aarau beating the -1 Asian Handicap at evens. I would not recommend backing a blind handicap, though – Chiasso really are playing well, and an Aarau victory by a one-goal margin is far from impossible. 

Verdict: Aarau to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.

Astra Giurgiu vs Dinamo Bucharest

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

I was surprised to see Astra lumped in with the relegation battlers after Romania’s Liga 1 split in two. They’ve always had a good enough squad to be at least in the discussion for a top six finish but not this season, courtesy of too many draws and not enough wins.

Don’t get me wrong; Astra have not struggled to control matches in 2021. Indeed, they’ve been one of the form teams in Romania. No, it was their horrendous start to the season that derailed them. It all started to change when Neagoe was appointed as manager in November 2020, and since then they’ve got back to their best – or as close as they can possibly get to it. No, they’re not a CFR Cluj or an FCSB, but they do have more talent than most at this level, and I expect them to absolutely obliterate the rest of the group they’ve now been lumbered with by pure virtue of being too good for them.

They’re back working hard again, Astra. Teams find it incredibly hard to score against them. Graovac, Bruno, Sousa, and Gaman being shielded by the Croatian duo in midfield? That’s a solid defensive setup, and it affords Wuthrich, Gheorghe, and Stal the chance to do some damage. Admittedly, Astra do lack a natural poacher, and Fatai’s continued absence here won’t help them. Montini is always a handful though, and Krpic was back amongst the goals recently, so I’d like to think that Astra will do enough to score once here – and that should be enough for them to win, given how well they defend.

That’s what transpired in the Cup mid-week as they won this exact fixture 1-0. They control teams like Dinamo way too easily. Getting the ball off them is tough, and breaking them down is even tougher. Some of the division’s better teams might occasionally manage it, but I would be astounded if a shocking, demoralised, and knackered Dinamo had what it takes. I know they got Multescu back to inspire them, and contrary to what the form guide suggests, there have been signs of such. I thought they fought valiantly against CFR Cluj recently, for example. Even though they had nine men for the majority of it, they were still the ones creating more chances at the end of the game, which should also tell you that CFR Cluj delivered a very confusing display. Still, it wasn’t enough, and he was sacked, meaning another new manager came in – Uhrin from Czechia, who does not arrive with the best reputation, keeping in mind that Dinamo need someone that knows how to communicate properly with his players, that knows when to hit them or put an arm around them – and he doesn’t. He’ll bring the ‘iron fist’, or so the Romanian media say – but I’m really not sure that’s what is required at this club right now.

It’s a far cry from the brilliant squad that used to be here in the 80’s, back when they used to dazzle Europe. Now, though? They barely look able to craft a goal, let alone win a game. Some of the players want it, and some don’t give a shit; that’s the reality. Uhrin has an impossible job to do to save this team from relegation. I mean, he was sacked from his role at Gaz Metan Medias quite some time ago now. Why would Dinamo suddenly decide that he’s the man to save them? It seems very desperate to me – and they are. They’ve got nothing going for them right now, Dinamo.

The visitors are without some important players for this clash too – Italian midfield controller Fabbrini, Senegalese live wire Gueye in attack, and young defender Ehmann – have all been regulars in 2021. Although it’s fair to say that they impressed in the second-half of their Cup game against Astra last time out, I think that can also be interpreted as a negative. It’s widely considered that Dinamo cannot actually play any better than they did against Astra last time out – and even that involved Astra being off the boil, or so their manager said after the game. They still didn’t hurt Astra, and the home team has another level to go to. Quite how Dinamo are now supposed to get something from this tough match, I honestly don’t know. Improvements or not, I expect defeat for the capital club today.

Verdict: Astra Giurgiu to win at 23/20.

Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Folk are intent on backing Winterthur here, which confuses me. On paper, Winterthur are better – I’ve said that all along, and I’m happy to stand by it. However, that only applies to the quality of the Winterthur players, not what they’re producing on the pitch, and the reality is that Winterthur look bad right now. It’ll take more than a scrappy win against Wil to convince me otherwise too, given how poor they’ve been lately too!

I watched Winterthur against Chiasso and Aarau recently, and they were absolutely crucified in both matches. They were outfought, forced to play balls long (which doesn’t suit their forwards), and just didn’t look all that arsed. They know they can’t win anything this season, or get promoted, and they know that they won’t be relegated either. The season is gradually coming to a conclusion for them, and I think the selections of Loose lately has shown that, often naming kids ahead of seasoned professionals so he knows what he has to work with next season. Even star creator Calla found himself on the bench last time out!

With no real interest in playing right now, I struggle to accept Winterthur being backed in as they are. Again, I do like Winterthur; I thought they’d make a push for promotion with a squad as good as theirs is. A combination of being too reliant on Alves and Calla plus injuries and plus some players (e.g. Emeghara) not doing enough has meant that Winterthur have struggled more than they should have. I still like the team, and I think they’re only a couple of players away from being a promotion contender next season, but this season is very much over for them. I don’t know why they’d show up tonight, to be frank.

I also appreciate that Lausanne are missing a few players here. An ill-tempered affair with FC Thun resulted in highly impressive Angolan midfielder Bamba being suspended tonight, and they’re lucky he’s the only one that was dismissed, although they’re still without Perrier and Rufli through suspension anyway. Ordinarily, they’d be significant absentees, especially for a squad that frankly isn’t that good on paper; only collectively. Against a disinterested Winterthur though, I’m just not concerned, even after three games without a win, because the visitors are the only ones that look interested in winning matches right now.

Under ordinary circumstances, I’d see the potential for Winterthur to capitalise upon Lausanne’s absentees – but I don’t right now. I think the visitors are still playing well, even though they’ve not won lately, and they’re still scoring goals too, which is important. Kodro’s squad is very close-knit and effective as a unit; they don’t need individuals in order to execute the game-plan. Let’s also not forget that they were astute enough to recruit Super League level midfielder Schneuwly earlier in 2021 to bolster their stocks, not to mention lively Congolese forward Kamboleke from Antwerp, and they’ve both been terrific since joining.

For me, the value is on the visitors here. Promotion is still very much on the table for them. Much like with Aarau, there’s really nothing to fear from the teams above them. I appreciate that they’ve just lost against FC Thun but that can happen sometimes against a good team. The season is far from over for Lausanne, but they do need to keep winning. I believe this is a winnable fixture for them, and that Winterthur is a good team to face right now because they’re simply not ‘there’ mentally, and that makes them a lot easier to deal with.

So, yes – for me, it’s a case of backing Lausanne with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

The most apt term that comes to mind to describe both of these teams is “awkward to beat”, especially so in Lille’s case because Galtier is a fucking wizard, as per usual. How he doesn’t get more praise for what he does rather consistently in Ligue 1, I do not know.

Montpellier are painful to beat too though. They have their down moments, but few teams possess the motivation and fearlessness that they do. The visitors have this unique ability to play good football and yet retain their defensive shape rather well. They’re very flexible, the southerners, and extremely tenacious. Their squad seldom has much quality in it because anybody worth more than a couple of cans of beans will leave this persistently cash-strapped club. However, Montpellier are very good at finding lower league players or giving talented kids a chance, and turning them into something good. They’re also very good at getting the best out of forgotten Ligue 1 players. I mean, did Ferri ever really play this well at Lyon? I don’t think so.

Montpellier really don’t get enough credit for their capacity to do that, actually. Not many players leave this club and go on to impress elsewhere because Montpellier makes them better than they typically are. They must do some extraordinary mental coaching behind the scenes to get players to be at their best as often as they do. I remember watching goalkeeper Lecomte there before he transferred to AS Monaco, and thinking how ridiculously good he was. Now they’ve got target man Laborde hitting double figures, English youngster Mavididi almost level with him, and tricky ‘Algerian’ attacker Delort back to his bewitching best. I’ve been a big fan of Sambia for years now, and how many of you remember the Savanier penalty earlier this season? Outrageous stuff! I’m not even going to go into what it’s taken to keep Hilton in defence either. He’s forty-three now. If they’re not using nandrolone, then…yeah. It’s just impossible.

So, yes – never underestimate Montpellier, please. They’re a brilliant mirror team when they want to be, which means that they can generally emulate whatever is thrown at them. If a team attacks them, they’ll attack back. If a team plays a shrewd, tactical game, they’ll do the same in return. Galtier’s Lille don’t like to have open games, and I can’t see Montpellier pushing to make this into one. I mean, Lille’s chief creator, Yazici, and pacey forward David, are both out here. That means that Lille will have to rely on their speed more than anything, and if Montpellier sit with banks of four, Lille will find it harder to score. Not impossible, of course, but harder. Nimes, Strasbourg, and Brest have all recorded positive results in Lille recently by playing that way – and Montpellier might too.

2011 was the last time they managed it, mind you. Lille don’t tend to lose against this team, at least not at home. La Mosson is another kettle of fish entirely; there’s something rather haunting about that venue that gives the home team amazing strength when they play there. Away from home, Montpellier are a touch more suspect but when they get to push for Europe as complete underdogs, they’re really in something of a perfect place. Everybody expects them to fail – and they feed off that like a hungry dog. I think they’ll give Lille a good game tonight.

Lille prefer their opponents to be more open; it allows them to use their ridiculously fast attackers to cause problems, and when they go ahead, they know that they’ll usually be able to hold it. With Andre and Soumare there to sit in front of the back four, Lille will not struggle to control games against most teams, and if they sit back, then most of their defensive vulnerabilities go away – although I have to admit that Bradaric’s defending this season has been a touch too rash for my liking. Breaking through the Lille defensive unit is a nightmare though. That’s why intelligent teams work as hard as possible to not concede the first goal against Lille.

This type of setup favours Montpellier more than Lille though. They’ve got nothing to lose, their hosts need to win, and two of their more unpredictable players are not going to be on the pitch. I still don’t see Lille changing their approach; that’s simply not Galtier’s style, at least not to begin with. They’ll try to pick holes, and Sanches will probably frustrate himself, as will Bamba. Ikone and Yilmaz will do the majority of the good stuff without it being too likely to achieve anything. I can see Lille being frustrated here, to be honest, whether they go on to win or not.

The 1×2 market does nothing for me, but barring a complete system change from the home team, backing under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is very appealing. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.