TFT Issue 3418!

AC Oulu vs Ilves

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

AC Oulu, along with KTP, were promoted to the Veikkausliiga this season. By no means is it their first rodeo, but it’s likely to be a short one as they, just like KTP, are paying the price for the gargantuan gulf that now exists between the Veikkausliiga and Ykkonen. 

The northerners lost some key players pre-season with winger Hertsi joining FC Lahti and fellow midfielder Aallikko having moved on too. They had a pretty sub-par squad for the Veikkausliiga before losing those two, but now? It’s teetering on the brink of nothingness. I like the collective output of the team, and their desire to outsmart teams. They’re out of their depth at this level though. 

Most of AC Oulu’s best players are those that are not suited to the Veikkausliiga. I mean, Rafinha was excellent in it once, but he’s thirty-eight now, and obviously nowhere near as mobile as he once was, which is the general story of their entire defence. Target man Makela knew this division was beyond him at his age, hence his decision to opt to continue in Oulu but with Kakkonen outfit OLS. It was expected that Anselmi Nurmela, the son of Finnish great Mika Nurmela, would be a Veikkausliiga player one day but it’s never really happened for him at the top level. I’m not writing him off just yet but it’s likely that he’ll find the division beyond him again.

Who else? Ah, yes – ex-HJK youngster Jokelainen up front. I’ve no probably with his application, nor his capacity to win aerial duels, but his finishing has never been all that great. He didn’t hit double figures in the Ykkonen, ergo I’d be astounded if he now managed it in the division above. Sadat can do it at this level, to be fair to him, but he never seems to settle anywhere; almost like an Afghan version of Yaghoubi. Everything about this AC Oulu squad simply looks decidedly ‘reaching’, if that makes sense. Maybe they’ll surprise me, and turn out to be amazing – but I doubt it. I just don’t see enough quality in their squad.

I did hesitate before backing Ilves today though, I have to confess. Tampere’s finest have made a lot of changes pre-season, including finally losing their star man Ala-Myllymaki, who has moved to Italy’s Serie B. Initially, I wasn’t quite as concerned with that as I could have been because the club signed wonderkid Tolonen to replace him, who was fresh off the back of an excellent campaign at IFK Mariehamn. However, in a bizarre twist, they club have opted to sell him before the season has even begun with fan speculation simply being that he didn’t fit into Wiss’ style of play. I have several questions about this, the first of which being why sign him in the first place? Tolonen played last season like he has in all of the other seasons; his style hasn’t changed. It’s not like he’s new to Finnish football, so was it that Wiss didn’t buy him? And if not, who did? Another burning question is why one of the most technically gifted footballers in the division has now opted to move to Gnistan in the division below. Suffice to say that the move has confused me on a lot of fronts.

Subsequently, I’m left wondering who is going to make things happen for Ilves. They’ve lost a lot of players, you know – not just Ala-Myllymaki. Tendeng left for IFK Mariehamn, Jair and Saksela left for HJK, Fofana moved to Sabah in Azerbaijan, Jarvinen and Tomas joined KuPS, and striker Missi Mezu moved to Etar in Bulgaria. Let’s not forget that wonderkid Skytta left for Toulouse toward the end of last season too. I can’t help wondering if Mettala would have left too, had it not been for his injury problems.

The only thing going for Ilves at the moment is that they’ve kept Wiss, and he’s brilliant at producing squads from thin air. He makes his teams operate as a unit, no matter who is in it, and never seems to struggle to implement changes, including the introduction of youngsters into the senior team. They’ve signed Sarr from VPS to help Mettala up front, who is a lanky forward with a long stride, and have loaned Katz from HJK to help Aspegren in defence. A couple more kids have joined, including another HJK loanee, namely striker Vertainen, and Jantti from FC Lahti.

On paper, it’s really not much to look at, and I do have concerns about whether Ilves can make the top six or not with this squad. I refuse to underestimate Wiss for reasons already mentioned, but this is his greatest challenge yet, in my opinion. There are some experienced heads in the squad but this is a very young team, and truth be told, if it weren’t AC Oulu or KTP they were facing today, I would not be backing the lynxes to win. I just don’t have that level of trust for them yet. Winning against a mediocre AC Oulu team home or away should not be a great challenge for the visitors though.

Therefore, I’m on the away win.

Verdict: Ilves to win at 21/20.

FC Lahti vs Inter Turku 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

On one hand, I have to applaud Spanish boss Riviero. The flexibility he’s established in this Inter Turku squad – not to mention the faith from his players – has ensured that he can now keep opponents guessing as to what they’ll do. However, on the flip side, I’m frustrated that he insists on alternating from his proven recipe for success (two deep-lying midfielders) in order to incorporate more attacking players on the pitch at once, and it becomes a bit like the old adage of, “too many cooks spoil the broth”. Folks will say that Valencic left for HJK pre-season because they’re likely to win the title, and perhaps they’re right, but I think he was frustrated at being made to play as more of a playmaker for Kallman and Furuholm than being ‘one of them. 

Riviero has done a good job for the visitors, though – let’s be quite clear on that front. They’ve not been quite so hungry and consistent as they are now for a long time. They’ve got attacking options for most occasions nowadays whether they want to get crosses into big Furuholm, or play balls over the top for young Kallman. Kagayama and Pastoriza bring dribbling/general unpredictability, usually from wide areas, and with Paananen making things happen, that’s a dangerous combination. Even without Valencic, this team should not struggle to score goals against anyone, especially given how fit they looked in the Suomen Cup.

I am bothered about their defensive setup though. No concerns with Annan other than his fitness, of course, but that back four is makeshift at best. They’re going to struggle to replace Kouassivi-Benissan, who returned to HJK pre-season, unless they play with two deep-lying midfielder. That in itself begs the question as to how good new recruit Sanz is. Muniz was great, but has left, and it’s expected that Sanz will step into his shoes without any issues. Your guess is as good as mine at this time though, and with a young, injury-prone defence in front of an ageing shot stopper (whose position as number one was frequently questioned last season), I can see Inter Turku being a bit more suspect than usual this season.

Can FC Lahti capitalise upon that today? That’s the big question, of course. They drew the short straw this season by playing Inter Turku right now because the visitors really have looked weeks ahead of the rest of the Veikkausliiga fitness-wise. An unwritten rule of Finnish football is to never underestimate a Zeneli team though. He’s a bit of a lunatic, it’s true, but also a good manager with very good players on his books.

I’m waiting for the day that FC Lahti shock Finnish football by bouncing back to the good old days when they used to at least attempt to compete for major honours. They’ve had good enough squads to manage that on more than one occasion but consistency always trips them up, and kicks them in the balls for reasons that are utterly beyond me. I mean, I look at their squad now and I see a team that should easily finish in the top four this season. I know Arkivuo is getting on a bit, but there really can’t be many better defences than FC Lahti’s in the Veikkausliiga whilst he, Coubronne, and Lahti himself are in it.

They brought in a good, experienced goalkeeper in Reguero, kept hold of wonderkids Virta and Assehnoun, and acquired ex-FC Honka Espoo playmaker Hervas. Rapid winger Hertsi was re-signed from AC Oulu after he helped the northerners return to the Veikkausliiga this season, and they’ve even added veteran Gambian attacker Kandji for that touch of unpredictability in the final third, although most of his unpredictability last season was centered around his fitness. These are all good signings though, at least in theory. They all know the division well by now so an integration period really shouldn’t be required.

My sole concern for FC Lahti this season is putting the ball in the net. Imbongo and Hambo both left pre-season, so they signed Espinosa, who was supposed to tear up the division for newly-promoted TPS last season but suffered a catastrophic injury, which ruled him out of the rest of their campaign. However, he was cut loose before this season’s Veikkausliiga even got mentioned for reasons that were never made wholly clear, which is when Kandji joined. So now it’s him, untested Ykkonen forward Yli-Hietanen, and new unknown Nigerian target man Chinedu. It might work, it might not – I’ll sit on the fence there. The rest of this FC Lahti squad is good though – good enough to hurt Inter Turku’s relatively youthful defence today.

All of FC Lahti’s recent competitive and non-competitive games have been typically entertaining with goals scored and conceded regularly as Zeneli tries to discover where his team is at. That approach today – assuming Inter Turku don’t deploy Sanz alongside Annan – should make this match entertaining, to say the least. It’s too early in the season to pick a winner here, but backing both teams to score suits me.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

HIFK vs Haka Valkeakoski

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

And so we have the weirdest game in the Veikkausliiga today with HIKF hosting Haka. What to expect from either of these two teams this season is anyone’s guess, really.

HIFK were forced to make a lot of pre-season changes, and subsequently have a similar level of cohesion to that of IFK Mariehamn, which is not a good thing. I watched them beat lowly RoPS in the Suomen Cup a few weeks back, and I’m still not entirely sure how they won it, even against ten men. Their finishing – especially in the air – was absolutely atrocious, and their build-up play was far too slow. A better team than RoPS would have hurt them for their defensive sleepiness too. Unfortunately for HIFK, a better team came along in the next round in the form of bitter local rivals HJK, and they were predictably smashed to smithereens by a far superior team.

Since then, HIFK have managed to grind out a few friendly wins in unfashionable but surprisingly effective style. It’s far too early to say if new Spanish boss Gomez will be a hit or not, and truth be told, this club seldom gives managers the time they need nowadays anyway. With him in charge though, and too many new faces, it’s hard for me to trust HIFK at this stage. True enough, they do have a bit of a cult following, at least by Finnish standards, but it’s just not a very good team, all things considered.

I still like the central midfield pairing of Mattila and Yaghoubi; that worked well last season. Mattila did a good job at both ends, and Yaghoubi can do things on a pitch that nobody else in the Veikkausliiga can – if he feels like it. With Isaksson, Tiquinho, and Hradecky in the equation, target man Tukiainen should not be short of support. Their defence looks a bit overpowered with strength and lacking in intelligence and leadership though, and I’m struggling to envision which of their players is going to hit double figures at the other end this season too. They don’t seem to have any qualms about playing a more patient, FC Honka Espoo-esque approach this season, HIFK, but unlike the afore-mentioned team, they lack the quality to make it work for them.

Surely we should favour Haka here then – right? Hmm. I’m not so sure about that either. They may have kept hold of talented boss Tainio, but they lost some really important players pre-season with target man Markkanen and playmaker Popovits both moving on. Shot stopper Tannander returned to HJK too, and backup goalkeeper Hartmann moved to Sweden. The early signs are that veteran goalkeeper Hilander will be their number one this season, which is concerning, especially for a team that doesn’t defend especially well at the best of times.

They’ve made some very bizarre signings pre-season, Haka, and I’m going to have to sit on the fence when it comes to deciding how successful they will or won’t be. Mohamed has looked good thus far, and I’ve barely seen anything of Loen, although both are supposed to be good attacking midfielders. Lately though, their main port of call has been to track down a striker after Markkanen moved on. They’ve managed to attract Austria’s Vucenovic to join from Sered in Slovenia, and Croatian target man Bosnjak from Wacker Burghausen too, neither of which I am blown away by.

However, the one signing they made – only recently – that got my attention was that of Yartey. I remember KPV signing him on a short-term measure in their battle against relegation, and this guy was unplayable, whether on his own or with a partner. He kept them up all by himself that season. However, stupidity on their part led to naming a full-strength side in a redundant final match of the season, meaning they were knackered for their play-off match, and ended up being relegated as a result of that. After this transpired, Yartey disappeared; I didn’t know where he went. Now, two years further on, he’s back! What condition he’s in, I have no idea, but Haka might just have someone there that could keep them away from the drop zone.

Neither of these two teams looks in any kind of position to impress right now though. The visitors are at least moving the ball fast with some attacking intent; it’s only their effectiveness in the final third that I question. HIFK are far too pedestrian in possession, and not nearly good enough in the final third to make it look artful. With plenty of rusty and a number of new faces, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a low-scoring affair in the capital today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

SJK vs KTP 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

It’s important not to get too carried away after the SJK project was derailed for three or four years, but I really am excited about this group. I’m even more excited that the board have not rashly sacked Honkavaara. His performance with this group of misfits was superb last season, and in a conventional campaign, they’d have claimed a top six spot. I saw a lot of improvements in Seinajoki, especially in the second-half of their campaign, which I’m a big fan of.

They didn’t overhaul their squad pre-season because they didn’t need to, which again, makes a very pleasant change. Akpan joined to help them control games better in the middle of the park as Hetemaj’s ageing has led to more battles with fitness. Backaliden joined from IFK Mariehamn to give them that touch of unpredictability when attacking rather than over-relying on Atakiyi’s return to brilliance. Arciero and Valencia joined in defence to keep them feisty and competitive too – that was really lacking in the SJK teams of the past.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – I believe Vainionpaa was the turning part for this team. This kid from the academy – with no particular brilliance – entered the first-team when Honkavaara took over. He worked hard, both in and out of possession, and didn’t shy away from any 50/50 challenges. Whether deployed in midfield or defence, he inspired those around him to give a fuck as much as he does, whether it’s through fear of being embarrassed by a kid, or because they believed in themselves more when they saw how well what he did worked out.

For years, SJK have been way too passive, sitting off teams, almost as if they were HJK, and magically had the quality to win games without trying. Now they’re pressing more, they’re operating as a team rather than individuals, and they’ve found good routes to goal. Ngueukam drifting in from the left, Jervis’ late runs into the box, Ledesma’s aerial prowess and classy finishing, and now Lepisto is expected to be more of a first-team presence too, who scored a lot of goals for their academy team. I shouldn’t exclude Oliynyk either, who is less classy but more intelligent and experienced. They’ve got the lot now, SJK, including very attack-minded full-backs, both of which are ex-wingers. I really do have high hopes for this team this season because they look capable of outscoring most teams in the Veikkausliiga on their day, and this is a very settled team indeed. I think they’re going to do newly-promoted KTP some serious damage today.

The visitors were unlucky enough to get promoted at a time when the gulf between the Veikkausliiga and Ykkonen has never been bigger. The teams in the top flight just keep getting fitter and stronger, whereas the teams in the division below seem to be getting worse, courtesy of all the clubs that have gone into liquidation over the years. KTP arrive in the Veikkausliiga with very little pedigree and it showed in the Suomen Cup too, far too frequently getting ripped apart by teams, both indoors and outdoors! 

It wasn’t even complicated to do it, either. Simple long balls over the top outfoxed slow defenders that weren’t used to dealing with faster players than those found in the Ykkonen. This really isn’t a team that’s good enough to play in this division. They’ve lost key players pre-season with the likes of Beglarishvili and Ojamaa returning to Estonia, Ruxi moving to AC Oulu, and star striker Mika disappearing altogether, presumably having returned to Spain. All they’ve done is sign Tarvonen, a striker who wasn’t good enough the last time he played at this level, and added a couple of experienced heads/wildcards. Other than Ramadingaye, none of these players are proven at Veikkausliiga level, which is a terrifying prospect for the Kotka outfit.

I see a lot of individuals in this KTP squad that won’t lose many 50/50 balls; fair play to them for that. However, I also see a team that can be passed around rather easily, or passed over rather easily too. I think they’re going to concede a lot of goals this season, and I don’t think that they’re going to score anywhere near enough to counteract such. I hate to be depressive about a team’s chances so early in the season, but I believe that KTP will be relegated this season – and rather swiftly, too. They simply don’t look ready for this level in any way.

For me, an impressive SJK side should really demolish KTP today. 

Verdict: SJK to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20.

Mainz 05 vs Hertha Berlin 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

These odds are shorter than I’d like but I am hopeful that they’ll rise further by the time you all see this preview because that’s the direction the odds are heading in right now.

I don’t really know why folks are backing Hertha here, mind you. I appreciate the feelgood factor is back now that Dardai is bizarrely back in charge of the capital club but beating Mainz 05 at this stage of the season is, well – look what happened to Bayern Munich last weekend. Mainz 05 are very much a team that excels at this stage of the season. True enough, they’ve probably done enough to avoid the drop now but it’s not certain yet so they need to be vigilant. This is not a team you should ever oppose at the business end of a campaign, though. Their resilience levels are out of this world.

Hertha Berlin have had almost three weeks off because of Covid-19 in their camp, and you might think that makes them fresher than the rest here. That’s certainly what I thought when the same thing happened to Holstein Kiel in the division below. If anything though, such a break seriously disrupted their flow. Holstein Kiel have been absolutely atrocious since their return, honestly. I don’t know how they avoided defeat against Nurnberg, and their 5-0 hammering against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund this weekend may not have raised many eyebrows but it did for me because that’s not the kind of team that gets turned over by anyone. I can’t help but wonder if Hertha Berlin’s feelgood factor and fitness levels will have been shot to shit by this unexpected break, you know? Time will tell, I suppose, but I can’t see Hertha Berlin having the professionalism to suddenly turn the form faucet back on. There’s a reason they’re in the relegation battle, and it’s not because they’re good enough to do that!

I can’t deny that Hertha Berlin have a seriously good squad, of course. I think they’ve made seriously intelligent signings over the past year or two, and in theory, this is a team that should be pushing for a UEFA Europa League place. As the Bundesliga table all too clearly reveals though, little could be further from reality for the capital club right now. Much like teams in the past that have either been relegated, or come close to it, they seem to lack soul. That’s why Dardai was brought back – he got more out of this group than anyone else has. There’s a reason he was sacked from it in the first place too, though. 

To put it bluntly, things are not ideal at Hertha Berlin, and this is a far harder fixture than you’d think purely by looking at the league table. Hertha Berlin have brought in some real ‘Hollywood’ type players, the likes of which aren’t really cut out for a relegation battle. By contrast, Mainz 05 are littered with passionate fighters, and they’re used to fighting against the drop. This is not a battle Hertha Berlin can realistically expect to come out of. They’re really going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat before I take them seriously, especially in a game like this one.

This form guide of Mainz 05’s – it’s not an accident. It’s not a fluke. It must be crazily frustrating for their fans, who witness some absolute dross at the start of every campaign only to watch the exact same team channel their inner Brazil 1970’s skill in the second-half of their campaign. I’ve lost count of how many years they’ve done it for now, but it keeps happening. You know, I bloody knew they’d do it again too, as soon as I watched them tear Bayern Munich apart for fifty minutes back in January. Defending let them down in the end but that was a team that was never going to get relegated, nor accept the possibility of such. This is not a team to fuck with.

The home team are fit, hungry, and aren’t missing anyone of note. Not only do they have experienced heads in their squad but they’ve also solved little dilemmas that had cropped up. For example, St. Juste and Niakhate have emerged as perfect partners in a high defensive line, and both have managed to stay injury/suspension free a lot in 2021, which is a big step forward for them both. They’ve got Quaison back from injury, who is easily their most skilful and mobile forward. Target man Szalai is back in the squad now that Danish manager Svensson is in charge, and he’s a legend in these parts so it goes without saying that having him back is a positive. They’ve also got winger Oztunali back after a few months out with injury. 

Essentially, Mainz 05 are in a really good place right now. They added Kohr in January to beef up their midfield, and they’ve unearthed the latest Luxembourgian wonderkid in Bareiro, who gets better every time I see him play. Acquiring da Costa to play on the right has helped them out at both ends too. Everything feels very healthy and productive at Mainz 05 right now, and they look unbelievably fresh. They’ve had incredibly tough games lately, both physically and mentally, and yet have come out of them smelling of roses. I just don’t know why a team like that would drop points against the Bundesliga’s version of Hamburger SV. For clarity, I expect Hertha Berlin to be disjointed and unfit here, and with one of their best match-winners Lukebakio out, I can’t see them winning in Mainz. 

For me, backing the home team with draw no bet makes sense here. 

Verdict: Mainz 05 to win with draw no bet at 73/100.

Hapoel Haifa vs Beitar Jerusalem

KO: 18:15 (UK time)

This preview should be the easiest one I have to write tonight because it’s not about motivation or form, of which both teams have neither. For absolute transparency, this game is a complete dead rubber; neither team can achieve or lose anything from playing in it.

For me, what it’s about is which team has the most first-team players available in attack, and that’s Beitar Jerusalem. I would argue that Hapoel Haifa have the greater spirit, which has been highly evident ever since Barsky returned to the club to partner Maman in midfield. However, they’ve had serious injury problems in 2021, losing Zamir for the rest of the campaign, who has been in the form of his life this season. They’ve now lost Barsky too, and are without forwards Ben-Basat and Ganem. Promising young midfielder Shahar is another absentee, as is defensive regular Sirostein. I like Hapoel Haifa more than I like soulless Beitar Jerusalem, but they cannot operate with this many players out. Unless Turgeman rolls back the clock (unlikely, after failing to score in his eleven games since returning to Israel) or Maman produces a moment of magic (always possible, I’m afraid) then Hapoel Haifa are in trouble here.

Beitar themselves are without a number of players, of course, but it goes without saying that, as the bigger and richer club, they have far more depth in their squad. I mean, consider that they’ve been without Portuguese defender Verdasca all season long, who is basically their best defender, in my opinion. It’s something they can deal with, basically. Therefore, even with Shua, goalkeeper Nitzan, Vered, youngster Zargari, and Adi joining Verdasca on the sidelines, I am not concerned here. They’ve still got Ohana, Atar, Vlijter, Muhammad, and their two newbies in attack, Jankovic and Matheusinho to make things happen in the final third – and they do. No, I will never have complete trust for Beitar but the reality is that they’re in a better place than their hosts tonight, and it almost feels ironic to say that, considering they did the most backward of things in April by sacking talented boss Drapic. What they thought would happen, I don’t know – there’s nobody better waiting for this poisoned chalice of a job out there! It’s all very Beitar, isn’t it?

Anyway, the visitors are simply in a better place to win this game than their hosts; that’s my take on things. Interestingly, the main focus about this game will not actually be the footballers on the pitch, but the referee. You see, Sagi Berman was already a referee in Israel but recently needed approval from the Israeli FA to continue being one as he’d underwent a sex change, and become Sapir Berman instead (so now a woman). The Israeli FA approved, and immediately chucked her into the limelight to demonstrate how inclusive Israeli football can be, albeit in a complete non-event of a match. These are interesting times, folks!

Anyway – for me, backing Beitar with draw no bet makes sense here. 

Verdict: Beitar Jerusalem to win with draw no bet at 22/25.

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv 

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

Well, now, are we actually going to see Maccabi Tel-Aviv surrender this title, despite having the support of most officials? It’s far too early to write them off, but they’re five points adrift of pesky Maccabi Haifa right now, and they won’t find any favours waiting for them in Be’er Sheva, with whom they’ve shared the newest Ligat Ha’al derby over the past five years or so, which frequently becomes rather testy.

I’d be the first to admit that I didn’t think Maccabi Haifa’s run would last as well as it has, especially not when star striker Rukavytsya kept picking up knocks earlier in this calendar year. Fair play to them, though – the usual bottlers are grinding like professionals, and the usual professionals are…well, bottling it. Again, I still can’t write Maccabi Tel-Aviv off; they’re still the best team in Israel on paper, and they really do have a penalty awaiting them in every game, if required. That defeat against Ironi Kiryat Shmona demonstrated how their grip on Israeli football is waning though, and I am curious to see what that translates to.

It goes without saying that Maccabi Tel-Aviv need to win tonight. They’ve won their last three visitors to Be’er Sheva without even shipping a goal, so I daresay some folks are expecting an easy ride for them here – but not me, which is in stark contrast to what I thought would happen when the two teams locked horns here in the State Cup. There were some signs last month when Maccabi Tel-Aviv beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva at home that tonight’s hosts are improving, which has naturally coincided with key players being available again. I still don’t think that they can be trusted to stop Maccabi Tel-Aviv tonight, truth be told, but rest assured that they’ll do all in their power to make it so, such is their hatred of Maccabi Tel-Aviv.

The visitors naturally have more match-winners, and they’ve got a mostly fit squad now that Pesic and Cohen are back up front. Ben-Haim is getting better, Panama’s Guerrero has started to score goals, and even Blackman has remembered how to be a good player, although it seems to have evaded him as to how to avoid unnecessary red cards. Biton, Peretz, Rikan – the class in this team is undeniable. If they want it enough, and they work hard enough, then they should win tonight. Lately though, they’ve looked more vulnerable than usual – and that presents the home team with a window of opportunity here, and I don’t expect Hapoel Be’er Sheva to pass up on such.

The home team appointing Levy as manager was silly; I can’t see how that’s a remotely progressive move. However, he has at least steadied the ship since arriving, and what’s become very clear is that he’s working on fitness levels and intensity with this team. They may not be winning games, Hapoel Be’er Sheva, but they’re staying in them better than they have for ages, even moreso than when they’ve won matches this season. They’ve had tough games in this stage of the Ligat Ha’al because they’re in a group of teams that really should be too good for them at this moment in time. I almost forgot how much they love being underdogs though, Hapoel Be’er Sheva, and they’ve reminded me on three occasions now! 

Winless, yes, but not without passion nor belief – that’s how to view tonight’s hosts. Their 1-1 draw against bogey team Maccabi Haifa last time out was the best I’ve seen Hapoel Be’er Sheva play in ages, fighting like lions for every ball. There’s still a shortage of quality in the final third; everybody knows that. The only one of them I trust to make a simple pass is Josue! Still, they’re getting a lot right at the moment, they’ve got a lot of their best players back and fit, and have even found another creative outlet in Brazilian winger Rosa. These are strangely positive times for Hapoel Be’er Sheva, who can now play without any pressure, and I think they’re going to make the most of it by trying to drive a nail into the coffin lid of their bitter rivals tonight.

I’m not brave enough to call this one, even though I recognise that the visitors should have enough quality to win it. I do like the idea of backing both teams to score though.

Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Karlsruher SC

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

Well, better late than never eh, Fortuna? With Hamburger SV typically bottling it, and Holstein Kiel’s Covid-19 break having done them more damage than a hurricane, not to mention Heidenheim’s dip in form, the promotion play-off place looks to be heading to Fortuna. It’ll be entirely bizarre if it does, mind you.

I wouldn’t have thought it was bizarre at the start of the season, not after they arrived in the Bundesliga 2 with almost the exact same team that should have avoided relegation from the division above, not to mention the same manager. It’s never worked for them at this level though. They’ve had some injuries, sure, but none that can explain what they’ve done this season. They’ve been horribly inconsistent throughout, conceding goals far too easily and only scoring a lot in dribs and drabs. Essentially, they’ve been a marginally more effective version of Nurnberg.

However, now that the chips are down, Fortuna have really started to turn it on. They’ve won some very challenging fixtures of late, including one against the Bundesliga 2 form team of 2021, St. Pauli. A slight stumble at Paderborn 07 was unwelcome but can happen when you attack a team that lives for counters. I’d like to think that Fortuna would get back to winning ways tonight. There aren’t many games left, and this really is a perfect time to host Karlsruher SC, who have looked out of gas for a few weeks now.

There’s plenty of good news from the Fortuna camp too. Appelkamp is back and fit, Karaman has returned from his bout of Covid-19, Iyoha is back after almost an entire season out (looks it, too – he can barely trap the ball at the moment!) – and Sobottka is keeping fit too, not to mention getting back to his best. These are all good things for Fortuna in the long run, and it’s helping to keep their squad fresh. No, I still don’t trust a Danso-led defence but with their eyes on the prize, and a seriously capable attack on their books, I have to believe that Fortuna will take tonight’s game seriously enough to win it.

I like their opponents, Karlsruher SC. I’ve backed them a lot this season because they’ve amply proven how far spirit and tenacity can take a limited group of players. However, they really are running on empty now, as I intimated above. They’ve got nothing left to play for, and just can’t score goals. Big target man Hofmann looks fucked, and without him, there isn’t an attack to speak of, as the first few games of this campaign all too clearly revealed. This team thrives on energy, you see, but they have very little of it because of a long campaign and limited rotation.

Mentally, Karlsruher SC are still hard to beat, of course. Getting around that midfield of theirs is beyond annoying, and there are so many dangerous individuals in this squad that containing them is awkward. I can’t say that the likes of Gueye and Batmaz are especially good, for example, but they’re painful to have to deal with. That sums up Karlsruher SC, really – painful to have to deal with. They’re easier now that they’ve no motivation and energy though, and that’s what I am banking on today.

No doubt Fortuna will find a way to make this tough, and knowing my luck at the moment, Karlsruher SC will probably win 10-0. However, all logic points to a home win – and so do I. 

Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 9/10.