TFT Issue 3424!

Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar 

KO: 07:05 (UK time)

Folks are backing goals here, which I find a little curious. Admittedly, the A-League is very good at randomly throwing up high-scoring matches so it’s never an insane idea, backing goals. Doing so today seems a tad foolhardy, though – assuming City don’t score early on.

I’ve mentioned a bit lately about the fatigue that all A-League teams are experiencing right now,and the predominantly low-scoring matches reflect that. Adelaide produced yet another weary display against Phoenix, for example, which ended 0-0, and Jets vs Sydney yesterday was hardly a high-scoring bonanza! In other words, expect a bit more of the unexpected in Australian for the foreseeable future, at least as far as the 1×2 market goes.

I daresay some people will be getting carried away because City have won 3-1 against the Jets and against Glory recently. On one hand, I really do applaud City for grinding like only champions do – and I really wouldn’t bet against them winning the entire thing. I’ve been seriously impressed with them in 2021. However, they – just like everybody else – are getting tired, which means that they’re finding matches harder to win.

Just because they’ve won two games lately and scored six goals along the way should not have people believing that they’re at their free-flowing best though, because they’re not. They’ve beaten two of the most impotent, sideways-passing, and predictable teams in the entire competition lately. They’ve not been great in either game, City, but it’s testament to the brilliance of their organisation and individuals that they’ve won both games. 

Today’s game will be harder for them though. Even without Aldred in their back four, Roar are really hard to break down. They live for games like this, where they can sit back and counterattack; it’s what they’re best at. They much prefer playing in matches like these rather than opponents similar to themselves (e.g. Phoenix) because they get more space, and can create more chances. Roar need more chances, too – with McDonald now donning the red-and-black of Western Sydney Wanderers, they literally do not have any good finishers left. Great movement and tenacity, absolutely, but no consistently good finishers. 

I agree that City should be favourites to win this game, and truth be told, they’ll probably do enough to win it. However, this is a far harder fixture for them, and it’s one that could well unveil how bang average their recent displays have actually been. Again, an early City goal will severely piss on our chips because Roar will have to try and get back in it, and City will damage them if they break ranks in their own half. 

I trust the organisation and consistency of Roar to shine through here though. This is very much their kind of match to shine in. They don’t have any pressure whatsoever, and are only missing one regular. All of their frontline are fast, aggressive pressers, and will make City’s defenders think twice about going forward, especially if Griffiths is deployed in the back four. Whichever way this one goes, I believe the setup and general nature of Roar will make it an extremely awkward encounter for City, and that in itself should make this a low-scoring encounter.

The last two meetings between these two teams both ended 1-0 to City – and that’s when these two outfits were both in far fresher condition than they currently are. For me, backing under 3 goals at 51/50 is a very logical pick.

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 51/50.

FC Emmen vs FC Groningen 

KO: 11:15 (UK time)

A win is paramount for FC Emmen today. I don’t just say that because they want to get away from the relegation play-off place that they currently occupy, either – ADO Den Haag were gifted three points last time out, and it could set them off on a good run. Remember that they have signed a lot of good attacking players in 2021 but haven’t been able to get going yet. Momentum might just do that, and if it does, then they’re going to trouble FC Emmen. 

It’s tight at the bottom of the Eredivisie though; too tight to decide on anything but that VVV Venlo are almost certainly going down for a variety of reasons. FC Emmen can still get out of the mire, and they’ve been playing fantastically well of late too, so it makes sense to take them seriously. I feel a bit harsh on them by stating that they’ve played well lately when the truth is that they’ve played well throughout 2021, for the most part. Luck hasn’t always been on their side, but FC Emmen play without fear, bullishly trying to outscore their opponents. If anyone deserves to stay up on merit, it’s them.

Until their drubbing against the new champions last weekend, FC Emmen had gone eight matches unbeaten. They started off with draws, but they progressed to wins against RKC Waalwijk, Fortuna Sittard, and Heracles Almelo respectively. Like a phoenix from the ashes, they’ve risen up to try and give themselves a shot at survival, and for my money, they’re going to stay up. There’s too much togetherness, belief, and tenacity for them to mess this relegation battle up.

Credit must go to the board, too – nobody says that very often, do they? It would have been easy to sack boss Lukkien for their Eredivisie league placing, but they didn’t, meaning that he’s now entered his fifth year in charge. It shows, too – he knows how to get the best out of these players at key times. I mean, would forward de Leeuw even get into another Eredivisie line-up? If he would, I doubt he’d hit double figures, which he’s already done this season! His mid-season raid of Turkey to bring in Adzic and Frei has helped improve their creativity massively too, which yet again is down to Lukkien. Former AFC Ajax Amsterdam full-back van Rhijn has kept fit for a lot longer since he joined this club too, and Peru’s Araujo has become a real rock at the back. Everything about this club has improved because of the board’s trust in the manager to do the right things at the right times. How could I possibly oppose such a team when they’re in dire need? FC Emmen were made for situations like these because of their mental strength.

It looked for a while like FC Groningen were assured of a UEFA Conference League qualifying place but their recent dismal run has led to questions being asked, particularly because Sparta Rotterdam have picked up so many points in 2021 that only the newly-crowned champions have picked up more. The problem now is that you need momentum at the business end of the season – and FC Groningen don’t have any. I won’t say that they’ve been lazy because it’s untrue; I watched them scare the shit out of PSV in Eindhoven a fortnight back because of how hard they pressed, and how much they wanted it. However, what I will say is that FC Groningen are making too many mistakes at both ends, and that lack of momentum is not helping.

A defeat today won’t be a complete disaster for the visitors, but it would hand the incentive to their chasers. They’ve still got to host AZ Alkmaar too, which I doubt they’ll win. These are grim times for Buijs’ men. I don’t think anyone is daft enough to expect to actually make it to the UEFA Conference League proper, but they should really be able to be in the qualifiers, if nothing else. Instead, I’m not even convinced that they can manage that now. The good news for them is that Vitesse Arnhem finishing as runners-up in the KNVB Beker means that they are removed from the qualification process, which means that even if Sparta Rotterdam were to pass FC Groningen, then today’s away team would still make the qualifiers – just. However, Heracles Almelo can still enter the equation, and they’re playing well at the moment so again, FC Groningen need to be wary.

They’ve got another problem today, the northerners – absentees. Robben’s absence is nothing new, of course, although no less problematic given that they signed Norway’s Larsen to be a target man, which tends to be best accompanied by a good wide game. Now they find themselves without key centre-back Dammers and Swedish wide man Gudmundsson, both of which have been regulars this season. In other words, unless Morocco’s El Messaoudi produces a moment of magic here, then they’re going to find it incredibly hard to score goals, yet again. That, fused with the unlikeliness of them keeping a clean sheet against FC Emmen leads me to believe that we’ll witness a home win today.

Verdict: FC Emmen to win at evens.

AS Saint-Etienne vs Olympique de Marseille

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

It remains to be seen as to how long it lasts, but Sampaoli sure has got Marseille playing well. I rate him highly as a manager, but it’s fair to say that I was dubious about whether he – or indeed anyone – could change the fortunes of the coastal club.

Since the Argentinian arrived from Atletico Mineiro though, Marseille have played with much more freedom and confidence – and it suits them so much more than the overly cautious football of Villas-Boas. They concede more, yes, but Sampaoli’s pressing game and desire to get men forward plays right into the hands of his more talented players, which are all in attack. If you surround the likes of Thauvin, Payet, and even Khaoui with runners then they’re going to do a lot of damage, especially because they’re seeing more of the ball because the team is pressing higher and harder.

Subsequently, Benedetto, Germain, and Milik are getting more chances, and thus scoring more goals. It’s all very logical, isn’t it? It’ll be fun to see what’s made of him when Sampaoli gets the best out of Henrique, which I firmly believe he will – he’s that kind of manager. He’s an excellent man manager, Sampaoli, and the team have shown that with improved displays which mean that they may just be in Europe next season after all. 

The bad news for Marseille is that they’ve now lost Thauvin on a free transfer, who has become the latest Frenchman to go and play in Mexico, joining Gignac at Tigres UANL. What’s not been made clear yet is when he will leave, though. My understanding is that his contract at Marseille ends in June, so that’s when he should leave. However, if a deal has been struck between the two clubs, then he may have already gone. It won’t be clear until Sampaoli names his squad for this match.

Still, it’s a big feather in the cap of Sampaoli that he’s taught the team how to not over-rely on such players. It’s become more about the team as a whole since he joined, which is really encouraging. They’re still not a particularly good team, and certainly aren’t good enough to keep teams out. However, their attacking looks far better, particularly because of the overlapping runs of their attack-minded full-backs, and their confidence levels have ensured that such displays have led to more wins than not. Indeed, they’re now unbeaten in five, Marseille – and I would not oppose them today either, not after what I saw from AS Saint-Etienne against Montpellier HSC.

They may have won the game in Montpellier, Les Verts, but it was horribly open at all times, and really could have gone either way. For what it’s worth, I thought that they managed the game better than their hosts, and that they had more chances to kill the game off in the second-half, but it was simply one of those crazy games that led to lots of chances, and what should have resulted in more goals too. I gave up trying to count how many corners there had been!

Much like Marseille though, Saint-Etienne are way too open to be trusted. It’s far too easy to get at them from out wide. Yes, they pose a significant counterattacking threat, but that’s their only means of stopping teams getting at them. Although it’s admirable, what they’re doing, and very easy on the eye, it’s not a particularly prudent long-term approach in Ligue 1 when you consider that they’re a mid-table team. Still, they have kept things interesting, and I am sure they’ll do the same against Marseille today too.

What I like the most about what Puel has done is that it’s mostly come from the kids, which is a very Galtier-esque approach – that was how he got the best out of them during his time at Les Verts. Despite Saint-Etienne having a seriously talented attacking team on paper, the more impressive players for them have been the youngsters. Modeste has done nothing since his return to France, and is now injured. Boudebouz has done little, Monnet-Paquet looks like injuries have finally stopped him from being able to play at this level. It’s only Debuchy and club talisman Hamouma that have really stood up to be counted from the more experienced players in their squad – and occasionally Kolodziejczak, to be fair.

It’s the kids like Abi, Nordin, Rivera, Youssouf, Camara, and especially Aouchiche/Gouma-Douath in midfield that have excelled. They bring such energy and life to this team that it’s seriously difficult to contain Saint-Etienne, whether they’ve got proven Ligue 1 players on the pitch or not. It helps to have someone like Bouanga and Neyou Noupa to add a bit of experience and composure at key moments, but it’s the kids that make this team so complex to handle. I should really throw Khazri into the mix too. By no means is he a kid, but he’s a phenomenally gifted footballer. He’s been too inconsistent this season for my liking, but when he’s on song, he’s unplayable.

Saint-Etienne have a strong nucleus and a great sense of togetherness now. They’ve rediscovered their identity, just as Marseille have begun to under Sampaoli. This is a meeting of two old, proud clubs that are beginning to remember what it’s like to play with passion and belief. They’re both top-heavy teams, and with Marseille needing the win in order to aid their push for European football next season, I have to believe that this match will be open and fast-paced, which should lead to a high-scoring affair.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam 

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

Given that this match is Der Klassiker, and that Ajax have already won the title, I shouldn’t get involved – but I’m going to. I’m sure the Ajax fans wish they hadn’t won it yet, just so they could win it at De Kuip, but no such luck.

The reason I want to get involved here is because of the intense hatred between the two teams, and the difference in quality and drive between them nowadays. In the past, the characteristics of both clubs were pretty straightforward – Ajax produced the fancier players with more questionable attitudes, and Feyenoord produced the natural fighters with limited ability. However, in recent years, Ajax’s players have been getting stronger mentally, and Feyenoord’s players have been getting less physical too. The gulf between them is just getting wider and wider, basically.

I had the misfortune to watch Feyenoord’s recent trip to Den Haag, and Christ they were bad! Look, I’ve been one of the biggest advocates of the work ADO Den Haag have done in 2021 in the transfer market but it’s fair to say that it’s not been working. They’ve been whipping boys for every team they’ve come up against because their attacking play wasn’t working, and their defending has been as bad as ever. However, Feyenoord simply invited them to score goal after goal, and even when the team that cannot defend sat in to defend, Feyenoord still did very little to them. Despite the motivation of ADO Den Haag, that was not good enough from Feyenoord – and it’s not the first time I’ve thought so this season.

It’s simply not a very good Feyenoord team, and it hasn’t been for quite a long time now. They’ve not got anything left to play for this season, and their limp displays over the past two games prove it. I don’t know what else to expect from an Advocaat team than lifelessness, and that’s precisely what they are. The only one of this team I feel sorry for is goalkeeper Bijlow. Such a promising shot stopper, but injuries have stopped him from moving to a better club. The rest? Well, Berghuis is brilliant, and Toornstra works hard, but I can’t be pleased with this team. When Geertruida almost certainly leaves in summer, this will be a very bland team indeed.

As far as today’s game goes, apart from their general disinterest in attacking, they’ve also got absentee issues. Star attacker Berghuis, who is the brains in their attack as well as their leading goal-scorer, is out. Midfielder Toornstra, generally perceived as their leader in the middle, is out thanks to his completely unnecessary red card against ADO Den Haag. Those two players are the heartbeat of this team. Without them both, I’d doubt Feyenoord against most Eredivisie outfits, let alone the best one in it! I just don’t have a reason to trust this team anymore, I’m afraid, big derby or not today.

Ajax are flying too, which helps my pick. I mean, I was never a fan of Blind as a defender – he always looked far better as a defensive midfielder to me – but he’s been key for Ajax since returning to the club. Despite his absence over the past couple of months, his team have gone on to win the title. In addition to Blind’s absence, they’ve also been without their Cameroonian shot stopper Onana, who is suspended for a long time. Both are key defensive players for this team, and yet they’ve triumphed over adversity by still succeeding without them, having now completed the domestic double.

That mental strength they’ve unearthed is a big part of me trusting them today. They look ready for a fight now, Ajax. They also have more than one route to the goal, which makes such a nice change. It was so easy to oppose them over the past ten to fifteen years because they always played the same way. Now, with a target man like Haller on their books, they have another route – and teams cannot defend against them via both approaches. That’s why they’ve been more effective than ever this season, especially after shifting on dead weight like Promes.

I know Ajax are often associated with emerging wonderkids, and it’s easy for folks to get carried away with them sometimes. They really do have some gifted lads on their books right now though. I daresay Antony gets a lot of the attention, and Brobbey has already been snapped up by RB Leipzig, but for me, Kudus, Gravenberch, and Traore are all terrific prospects, and both Timber and Rensch at the back have done sterling jobs too. There’s an awful lot to like about the current Ajax sepup, and the overriding outcome is that they function brilliantly as a unit because everybody is on the same page.

They may still concede the odd daft goal, the visitors, but they dominate games, and I’ve not seen a single Dutch team contain them all season long. I appreciate that this is the game of the season for both of these two Dutch powerhouses, and there’ll almost certainly be red cards because of it, but for me they’re poles apart in every single way. With that in mind, plus the impact of Covid-19 on the fixture, I have to believe that backing Ajax to beat the handicap today is a risk worth taking.

Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 43/50.

IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

The reports I’ve read in Finland suggests that Aland (self-governing island group belonging to Finland) are a lot more relaxed Covid-19-wise. In practice, they’re expected to let a lot more fans attend today than are allowed to attend on the mainland at the moment, which can only help the home team.

Not that IFK Mariehamn need any help in home games, mind you. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – that ferry trip does weird, weird things to players. I’ve seen unbelievably poor displays from away teams in Aland over the years, and I’ve seen IFK Mariehamn struggle on the road a lot too. Still, it works to their advantage in this particular scenario, so I’m certainly not complaining; it’s more an observation than anything else.

I opposed IFK Mariehamn last weekend because they looked seriously short of compatibility in the Suomen Cup this season, frequently being bludgeoned by opponents. Much to my surprise, the islanders recorded a handy 2-0 in Espoo against a superior FC Honka. I watched that game, and I think that the home team can only really blame themselves for what happened. Olawale’s opener, for example, was a long goal kick that caused confusion in the FC Honka Espoo back line – and the Ivorian nipped in, and delivered a surprisingly composed finish. Their second goal came from the spot too. FC Honka Espoo saw more of the ball but just looked a bit rusty themselves, which was also surprising. Fair play to IFK Mariehamn for doing a professional job, though – and they did.

I still think that the islanders can be better than that this season though. It’s one thing to play as underdogs, without any pressure, but another to play as favourites at home. I still want to give them a few weeks to settle down because they really did make a lot of changes pre-season. That may not be a new experience for them, but it’s still something that lends an air of uncertainty to the equation. However, I saw enough togetherness and tactical prowess in Espoo to believe that they can do a reasonable job on the northerners today.

It goes without saying that facing AC Oulu played a significant part in my decision to back the home win here though. AC Oulu, just like KTP, are not good enough to play at this level. They’ve joined a seriously competitive Veikkausliiga, and they’ve done so with a very limited squad, having had to wave goodbye to some of their best/most consistent players pre-season. They’re battlers, the away team, but not much more than that. IFK Mariehamn may not be operating at their maximum just yet, but the players they’ve brought in this season are seriously exciting.

I mean, I know the names may not mean a lot to folk that don’t follow the Nordic leagues but Igboananike, Hambo, and Olawale as strikers is a very exciting prospect because there’s a bit of everything in there, even if none of them have been consistently good at finishing over the past twelve months for one reason or another. Then there’s Svensson, Tendeng, Abubakari, Mastokangas, and especially Mattsson providing support from midfield, all of which are very fit, mobile players. Their defence is not great, but their midfield and attack has the potential to be deadly – and I don’t see AC Oulu being able to contain them today.

It’s nice to see the visitors back in the Veikkausliiga after a decade in the Ykkonen. What would Finnish football even be without a painfully long trip north once in a while, huh? Just when the Veikkausliiga celebrated as RoPS got relegated, up came AC Oulu to dampen those cheers. Don’t get me wrong; I really don’t see how today’s visitors are going to avoid relegation this season. I think they’ve done better than KTP since promotion but that’s about as much as I can praise them right now.

I will give AC Oulu their due respect, though – they really have done as much as they’re capable of in order to give themselves a reasonable shot at surviving the season. Instead of just relying on Sadat, players that are arguably too old to do well at this level anymore, or on players that have failed to produce the goods at this level, they’ve gone out and signed Malolo and Alanko, both of which are more than capable of playing well at this level. Malolo is a bit inconsistent, and it remains to be seen if Alanko can keep fit, but both improve the passing and general speed of the AC Oulu attack, and with Popa/Jokelainen ahead of them, they need it.

I genuinely hope that Jokelainen, Nurmela etc. go on to make it at this level, which they’ve failed to in the past, but I just don’t see it. It never seems to be concise enough with them – passing with Nurmela, and finishing with Jokelainen. It’s easy to see why they were promoted last season; this is a squad that could – and should – dominate the Ykkonen. The Veikkausliiga requires a certain quality, and a physical presence that AC Oulu just don’t have though. 

On paper, losing at home against Ilves last weekend may not be considered a terrible result. After all, Ilves have done brilliantly in the Veikkausliiga over the years – and on a shoestring budget, too! All credit to Wiss for that. However, Ilves have lots way too many players pre-season, and even one of their replacements – Tolonen – has already left in very quizzical circumstances. In other words, it was a perfect time to face Ilves at home – and yet AC Oulu still lost 2-0, as I suspected they would. It was purely the organisation of Ilves that caused such problems, but it’s one of what is soon to be many examples of how this level is beyond AC Oulu.

Therefore, I think this new-look IFK Mariehamn side are going to pick up the three points today.

Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 83/100.

Klubi-04 vs KPV

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

I think it’s safe to say that we’re in for some interesting and entertaining Klubi-04 displays in the Ykkonen this season. They’ve only just been promoted from the Kakkonen but never fail to show adventure in their efforts because they’ve nothing really to gain or lose from their matches. I mean, Klubi-04 is basically HJK’s “B” team so they come and go from the Ykkonen every now and then.

This season, they’ll be led by ex-Finland international playmaker Vayrynen, who is probably still good enough to be playing at this level. He’s got a lot of kids on his books as well as the odd veteran. I’ve not seen anywhere near enough of Klubi-04 this season to accurately judge them but at the risk of sounding a touch blase, not much changes at Klubi-04; it’s always the same, attack-minded displays from a top-heavy team. At this level, they tend to score and concede a lot, and that’s all I expect from them today.

KPV were incredibly disappointing in the Ykkonen last season. The expectation was that they’d be pushing for promotion, considering that they were only relegated from the Veikkausliiga the season prior. Instead, they struggled for any kind of momentum, and found themselves closer to the relegation battle than the promotion push. Indeed, given how much Kajaani and Gnistan improved with their mid-season signings, it could be argued that KPV were lucky to stay up. Had both teams not been so utterly disastrous at the start of the season, we may have seen a different conclusion altogether.

They’ve made some substantial losses pre-season with Ivorian defender Meleke joining Botosani in Romania, target man Roiha returning home to RoPS, Doumbia moving to Maccabi Netanya in Israeli, star striker Karvonen signing for KTP in the division above, and Ahde opting to play for FC Jazz in the Kakkonen. It goes without saying that we should expect relative turmoil from them this season, especially in the early exchanges, and their Suomen Cup/friendly displays lead me to believe that it’ll still be the case today.

KPV should not be underestimated though. They’re not a consistent team, but with Mannstrom pulling the strings in midfield and now Malonga up front, as well as Zapata, this is a team that could score a lot of goals in the Ykkonen this season. It’ll take a while before I can trust them to actually win matches, but scoring goals against HJK’s youth team should not be a tall order for the ex-Veikkausliiga outfit.

Therefore, I’m on over 3 goals here.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 22/25.