In the past, the usual process for the tipsters was to answer a set of questions in order to determine which bet they should suggest for a good prospect for success. Similarly, all the top bookmakers in Europe and Asia, took the results of their own research teams and posted their odds. A most important aspect of the homework for both is the advantage that a side may enjoy over another.
What sort of advantage?
First and foremost, the home field advantage. It is well-known that the location where an event is conducted may play a critical part for one of the adversaries. Then come other edges:
- The weather:
One side may be better in adverse conditions that require strength, while the other side may be better when the pitch may allow them to deploy superior tactics and skills.
- Missing players:
The usual case is for sides of lower classification to depend upon the performance of fewer players than their opponents. If these are not present in a confrontation, then the chances are quite clearly against them.
- The incentive:
If a side is still trying to achieve the season’s goal and the other has no real interest in pursuing a positive outcome, then the advantage lies with those that still have something to hope for.
- The psychology: There are plenty of examples where the condition of either adversary makes no difference. There are encounters were the incentive is just pride.
The above are usually the ones that have the greatest effect. If you knew the answers, then it would be rather easy to correctly predict the outcome. However, through some recent developments, it would appear that they are nullified. Let’s discuss the issue.
The system nullifies the advantage given to a side “in respect” of the name. The home field advantage also provided a 60-40 on the calls from the officials in favor of the hosts. It is also well-known that the sides with a “heavy” uniform enjoyed more “protection”. All of the above do not exist any longer.
The rules defining what constituted a handball and which would be punished, changed twice in the last 2 years. Any incidental or accidental touch may result in a free kick or even a penalty call. Effectively, the new regulation increases exponentially the chance of an “unforeseeable” event that may shape the outcome.
The previous rules made it very easy for a referee to point to the penalty spot. That had an effect on the final victory and score. That has changed and the condition of a “meaningful contact” was added. Now it is harder for a team to be awarded with a penalty call “for the slightest touch”. Again, an advantage (usually awarded to the strongest side or the smartest player) was nullified.
In the betting world, nothing is guaranteed. You can do all your homework to make an informed decision on where to bet. You can be given all the tools you need that allow you fast bet placement to many bookmakers at the same time. You may even have a fair amount of luck. However, there still are plenty of aspects in a game that cannot be foreseen. In all fairness, it is this exact unpredictability that makes betting worth. If you already knew what was going to happen it would not be exciting, would it?