TFT Issue 311!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla CF – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Basque outfit Real Sociedad and Sevilla CF. It’s the second time this weekend that a Basque side has met an Andaluscian outfit with Real Betis Balompie overcoming Athletic Club de Bilbao in a 2-1 win on saturday night. Real Sociedad would love a repeat scoreline in favour of the hosts tonight!
As usual, I am taking Real Sociedad’s chances of winning at home very seriously indeed. Real Sociedad playing at Anoeta in San Sebastian is just such a tough away game for any side! Atletico Madrid winning here 0-4 lately saw Atletico produce their best display of the season thus far and actually increased Real Sociedad’s goals conceded at home in the Primera Liga this season by 100% such is the dominance of the Basque hosts. So yeah – underestimate Real Sociedad at your own peril.
For today’s game, Real Sociedad have no major concerns. De la Bella, Zurutuza and Illarramendi sit this one out but none are of the level of importance that Griezmann and Xabi Prieto are, for example.
I caught the second-half of Real Sociedad’s recent trip to the Nou Camp to take on Barcelona was very impressed with their belief and attacking quality. They caused Barcelona’s defence a good number of problems and could have even equalised at the end had Lady Luck been on their side. It was not to be, however. I doubt Real Sociedad will feel demoralised from that game, though – they gave a terrific account of themselves and ran Barcelona close for the second time this season. At home, Real Sociedad make the most of their fanatical support at Anoeta and whilst they continue to play better football than most people expect from the usual physical Basque side, I’m happy to give them a chance of winning a difficult game like this.
Visitors Sevilla CF just keep going up and down. The 1-2 defeat against Villarreal CF was the end of the line for boss Marcelino, who has been dismissed and replaced by Michel. The Sevilla story goes on with the Andaluscians beginning to look remarkably similar to old Atletico Madrid with corruption a-plenty and managers going in and out of a revolving door at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. It’s not helping the players one iota because there’s no consistency in the management and thus Sevilla tend to fall foul of sides that are well-organised and work hard ala Real Sociedad, hence today’s tip.
Unhelpfully, Sevilla also have some notable absentees for this game. Chilean battleaxe Medel is absent for this game, as are regular defenders Spahic and Escude. Michel welcomes back Alexis into his defence and Guarante into midfield but they’re hardly what I would call replacements for those not in today’s selection.
Michel’s got one hell of a task ahead of him here to turn the fortunes of Sevilla CF around and I doubt it’ll begin in this game. This is a very tough game and I think Sevilla will have to play better than I’ve seen them play this season in order for them to win this game. Subsequently, given the consistency of Real Sociedad at home, I have to consider the home win with draw no bet cover at evens as a good value bet here.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional game
Ermis vs Aris Limassol – over 2 goals at 9/10.
This should be a fascinating game, contrary to what Division 1 statistics suggest. Ermis are doing much better than anticipated with all their local boys playing with spirit and belief. They’re playing somewhat redundantly, of course – everyone knows that Ermis are going down – but that eases the pressure in some ways and that is helping Ermis’ kids, surprisingly enough. Ermis will still lose most of their remaining games this season but they’re playing better than they’re being given credit for and this could be the ideal platform for them to showcase their potential today.
Taking over 2 goals in any Ermis game would mean that you’ve either won or “pushed” each bet since the start of November so the high odds surprise me a lot here. Sure, Aris Limassol don’t have convincing away form but they’re a decent outfit and play some good football. They’re keen to end their drought on the road in term of wins and this is a “winnable” game for them to so why not today? Unlike most Cypriot sides, Aris enter games with the intent of winning them rather than playing a shrewd and calculating game of composure. This obviously has positives and negatives but hey, they’re playing against a side that they’re better than today so I’ll give them the nod to cause problems in this game.
Vasiliou and Theofanous’ absence from the Aris midfield are big blows but the return of Romanian midfielder Ionescu does ease concerns on that front. Aris have enough to function here and Ermis have nothing to lose so I anticipate a more open game than the bookies seem to think there’ll be. Therefore, taking over 2 goals at 9/10 appeals to me a lot in this game.
Verdict: Over 2 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis – Formica is absent.
Aris Limassol – Vasileiou, Aristeidou, and Thofanous are absent. Ionescu returns.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa – Boccoli, Cohen, Davidovic, Amasha, Azriel, Cesarec are absent. Meshumar returns.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – Golan, Elbaz, and Mashiah are absent.
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli – Cannavaro is absent.
Chievo Verona – Dainelli is a doubt.
Siena – Brkic and Bolzoni are absent. Rossettini is a doubt.
AS Roma – Osvaldo, Burdisso, and De Rossi are absent. Gago, Kjaer, Perrotta, and Viviani are doubts.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra – Eder, Nivaldo, Mvom, Araujo, Ferreira, Joao Dias, Fabio Santos, Saulo, Joao Real, Orlando, and Diego Gomes are absent.
Gil Vicente – Joao Vilela, Sandro, Luis Carlos, Roberto, and Caicara are absent.