Blau-Weiss Linz vs Austria Vienna
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Today’s free tip is in the Austrian Bundesliga encounter between Blau-Weiss Linz and Austria Vienna.
Sometimes I wonder if the bookies have watched any Austrian football in the past decade or so. I mean, Austria Vienna odds-on to win away from home against Blau-Weiss Linz, a team that recently foiled (comfortably so, actually) Salzburg at home? I’m missing something here if that’s accurate; the visitors haven’t been that good in ages! I’m not saying that Austria Vienna can’t win this game; of course they could. I’m just saying that them being stone cold favourites to do so is pretty damn weird in my world.
Firstly, let’s examine the capital club, shall we? A top six finish is now close to impossible thanks to their derby drubbing against Rapid Vienna last weekend. That means that they have to win both remaining games whilst hoping that other results go their way. That’s problematic because Austria Vienna operate far better on the counterattack than they do from open play, and without main striker Asllani (still injured), hurting teams is going to be very complicated for them, as it has been all season long.
Secondly, despite getting goalkeeper Fruchtl back from injury, they’re now without defensive mainstay da Graca, who is injured, as is Potzmann. This team does not have much by way of depth anyway so any absentee is generally felt. Their defensive structure is easily their biggest strength but it’d question how reliable it is without those two, not to mention wing-back Ranftl, who is suspended.
Thirdly, I’d also point out that in all but one away game this season, every time they’ve entered as favourites they’ve failed to win. They operate far, far better as underdogs than they do as favourites because they’re simply not very good anymore, which stems from more complicated matters behind the scenes (they’re basically bankrupt, and just keep getting saved sporadically). I like Austria Vienna, and Austrian football would be missing something massive if they were to disappear from it, but they’re not particularly good anymore; that’s the bottom line here.
The above is problematic enough here, even though they’ve got Vucic back (who has done quite well in Asllani’s absence, admittedly – it cannot last though). Now they’ve got to win away from home on an unfamiliar pitch (stadium only built this season – they’ve never played on it before), against a ballsy, confident home team with everything to gain and nothing to lose? I just don’t fancy it. Blau-Weiss Linz are basically safe from relegation because Austria Lustenau are a stone cold atrocity, and it would take several miracles to save them now. Therefore, there’s no pressure on the home team whatsoever, who tend to be at their best when allowed to sit and counter.
Although without a win in 2024, they’ve impressed me a lot, Blau-Weiss Linz. They were a bit unlucky to lose against Austria Klagenfurt last weekend but that was a Pacult masterclass, getting his team to make more of their moments than their opposition did. Other than that, they’ve deservedly drawn at home against Salzburg (and could have won it), and fought hard enough to draw in western Austria (although were disappointed to let their early lead slip at the death, much as though a point apiece was a fair outcome). They don’t give an inch, Blau-Weiss Linz, and I don’t see that changing here.
Importantly, star striker Romivaldo is back now – that’s a big boost for the hosts because none of their other players know how to put the ball in the net. Hofer did, but he was pointlessly recalled by Salzburg from his loan spell despite them not playing him. Haudum’s out in defence but I don’t really care about that, not with Pasic back and Tursch in good shape now. Noss is starting to get back to his best too, which is also important – he lost his way for a long time earlier in the campaign. They’ll need him here with Dobras suspended.
This is not a great team; let me be quite clear about that. On paper, Blau-Weiss Linz arguably have the weakest squad in the Bundesliga. However, in reality they have a lot of industry, cohesion, and they really care about the club that they represent. For a limited group, they give a lot for Scheiblehner. I’d argue that they give closer to 100% of what they’re realistically capable of than most teams in Austria, and that’s enough for me. If they can annoy Salzburg, Sturm Graz, LASK, Wolfsberger AC, TSV Hartberg, and Austria Klagenfurt at home (none of which have beaten them in Linz this season – only Rapid Vienna have!), then I don’t see why Austria Vienna would suddenly become an exception just because they ‘need to’.
For me, laying the away win at 83/100 makes sense.
Verdict: Blau-Weiss Linz to win with a +0.5 Handicap at 83/100.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Austria Klagenfurt
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau
Blau-Weiss Linz vs Austria Vienna
SCR Altach vs LASK
WSG Tirol vs TSV Hartberg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Club Brugge
Antwerp vs Sint-Truiden
RSC Anderlecht vs AS Eupen
Kortrijk vs RWDM
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia vs Beroe
Ludogorets Razgrad vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Varazdin
NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
Czechia Liga 1:
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec
Zlin vs Banik Ostrava
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs Hvidovre
Viborg vs Randers
Brondby vs Vejle
AGF vs OB
English Premier League:
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Manchester United
French Ligue 1:
Toulouse vs OGC Nice
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Metz
Montpellier HSC vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Stade Brestois vs Le Havre
Stade Rennais vs Lorient
Olympique Lyonnais vs Racing Club Lens
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga 2:
Hamburger SV vs VfL Osnabruck
Paderborn 07 vs Magdeburg
Elversberg vs Wehen Wiesbaden
Hungarian Liga 1:
MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE
Ferencvaros vs Kecskemeti TE
Ujpest vs Fehervar
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Hadera
Italian Serie A:
Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo
Empoli vs Cagliari
Frosinone vs Lecce
Atalanta Bergamo vs Bologna
SSC Napoli vs Juventus
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Reggiana
Bari vs Spezia
Cittadella vs Pisa
Como vs Venezia
Cosenza vs Catanzaro
FeralpiSalo vs Sampdoria
Modena vs Cremonese
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dainava vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen vs TransINVEST
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
SC Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Rotterdam
Heracles Almelo vs Almere City
Portuguese Liga 1:
Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente
Portimonense vs Vizela
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Farense
FC Porto vs SL Benfica
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF vs Granada CF
Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis Balompie
Real Mallorca vs Girona
Athletic Club vs Barcelona
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Lugano
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon-Sport
FC Zurich vs Young Boys Bern
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Sion vs AC Bellinzona
Vaduz vs FC Schaffhausen
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor
Pendikspor vs Konyaspor
Besiktas JK vs Galatasaray
Enjoy your free betting tips!