Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix.
I know that the Jets sprung a surprise on Phoenix earlier in the campaign but I’m struggling to accept that history could repeat itself here. It’s Australia’s A-League so nothing can be listed as ‘impossible’ but teams aren’t quite as surprised by the Jets now as they were months ago.
I believe there are numerous reasons for such. Firstly, they’re fatigued – they can’t rotate as much as other teams do due to limited depth/limited financial backing. That said, some of it is Stanton’s doing too – I know Jenkinson has been injured for a time but to not play him ahead of Cancar or Natta on occasion is crazy. He filled in for Natta (who is on international duty) last match, and they kept a clean sheet in Brisbane despite mostly being under the cosh – Jenkinson played his part in that. It’s just one example, too. Stanton doesn’t seem to want to rely on foreigners, and although I get that, it’s also partially why the Jets are struggling now.
Secondly, I’d also point to the ongoing confusion surrounding the future of the Jets, who are about to enter their fourth(!) year of looking for someone to buy the club. This uncertainty has not only led them to lose players over years gone by, but also managers. I think Stanton has done a really good job with a very limited group of players, especially outcast striker Stamatelopoulos, who has randomly become one of the top strikers in the division so it wouldn’t surprise me if Stanton himself looked around in the summer.
Thirdly, following on from the above, they’ve deciding to ostracise players that won’t be there next season – or so it seems. O’Neill – easily their best central midfielder – is reportedly homesick, and will return to Perth Glory next season. Therefore, he can’t escape a bench role nowadays. Full-back Mauragis, a name well-known to Phoenix for his loan spell there last season, is another that may suffer the same fate. He’s on international duty at the moment but he’s made it clear that he’ll be joining their bitter rivals Central Coast Mariners next season too. I have to believe that Aquilina is on his way too – they’re forever including him in their extended matchday squad but never even makes the bench so something is amiss there.
What does all this mean? It means that the Jets are down to the bare bones. What they’ve got is all they’ve got. They cannot change a game from the bench so if Plan A doesn’t work, they’re in trouble. I admire their togetherness, and their ruthlessness in the final third. However, this team concedes too many chances in general, and they have a very bad day whenever the goals don’t come. They’ve picked up a little lately, and that momentum will help them, but they need to be tactically smarter than they are to defeat Phoenix. I can’t see this one going well for them.
Phoenix themselves are a big leggy now, to be fair. Even hotshot Barbarouses (and I’ve no idea where his confidence has been hiding for the past few years!) has started to struggle a bit. However, where the individuals struggle, the collective pulls through. Italiano has emerged as a fantastic manager, and these players very much dance to his tune. He’s not afraid to make big calls, both before and during a game, and that gives Phoenix one hell of an edge. There’s a reason that they’ve not been outplayed in a single match this season, and that’s it.
The above doesn’t guarantee Phoenix a positive result in Newcastle but I’m sure you’ll all agree that it’s not a bad pet to have. Furthermore, they again welcome main striker Zawada back from his latest injury. He won’t start, for clarity – it’ll be a bench role at most – but they’re desperate to have him available for the play-offs. It’s seen in the New Zealand media as something of a swansong with the big Pole likely to return to Europe in the summertime. Him being back is a handy offensive weapon, and that’s very good for a team that does remarkably well at holding leads as it gives them a greater chance of getting their noses in front.
I still think that Phoenix will be too smart for the Jets here; that’s the crux of my pick. Who scores the goals doesn’t really matter to them as they perform as a unit. They attack and defend as one. Defeating a team like that is tough; even title rivals Central Coast Mariners really had to fight to beat Phoenix recently. The Kiwis know how to control games, know how to annoy opponents, know how to take their chances, and know how to hold leads. A team like that, who have a lot of motivation to win (finishing top would allow them to play all of their remaining play-off matches at home) should do well here.
Therefore, I’m on the away win.
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at 6/5.
Friday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa vs Etar
Krumovgrad vs Slavia Sofia
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs OB
Faroese Betrideildin:
HB Torshavn vs EB/Streymur
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
SJK vs Ilves
Inter Turku vs KuPS
Finnish Ykkosliga:
KaPa vs SalPa
French Ligue 1:
OGC Nice vs Lorient
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg
German Bundesliga 2:
Nurnberg vs Paderborn 07
Elversberg vs Schalke 04
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs SS Lazio
Cagliari vs Juventus
Italian Serie B:
Palermo vs Parma
Reggiana vs Cosenza
Portuguese Liga 1:
Rio Ave vs Arouca
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club vs Granada
Swiss Challenge League:
AC Bellinzona vs Baden
FC Schaffhausen vs Neuchatel Xamax
Aarau vs FC Thun
FC Sion vs Stade Nyonnais
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK vs Ankaragucu
Enjoy your free betting tips!