Be wary about tipsters who don’t let you view past tips
Something we noticed years ago when we were doing research for The Footy Tipster was that a lot of sites were members only and didn’t give away any free tips and they didn’t share old members tips with people. We thought that was interesting but it isn’t really for us and I wanted to share with why and what we did which we think is better!
So the reason that we think not sharing old tips is a bad idea is because you can so easily fake statistics like win rate, you could have placed tips for 100 games and only 25 of them come off, normally this would mean a win rate of 25%, but if you change the stat to say out of the last 50 games then suddenly the win rate is 50%, what if you changed it again to say “in a sampling of 25 recent games, 25 of them were predicted correctly” suddenly you have a 100% win rate!
That isn’t to say that stats like win rate aren’t important, but you need to take them with a pinch of salt and look into the facts behind them, it also doesn’t give you an idea of how many bets are being placed, maybe they have a 90% win rate but they only ever bet on matches when the team at the top of the league play the team at the bottom of the league and when half of the bottom of the league team are out injured! In other words overly safe bets that aren’t going to make anyone any money.
So what we ended up doing was sharing our members tips after the tips are considered old, we decided that after 4 days our tips should be considered old, we think this does two things.
- It allows you to quickly and easily see if our predictions were accurate – the games have been played so checking the results is easy.
- It allows you to see the information we added to the tips.
I feel this second point is very important, most of the time Ian doesn’t just say Team X will beat Team Y – he actually says why he thinks that, getting his thought process on paper like that means that you can see why he came to that result and as a result be a much smarter bettor and be in a better position to judge if you should become a member!
I would love to know what you think about tipsters who don’t share their old results with people, let us know in the comments below :-)