Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
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Today’s free tip is in the UEFA Champions League encounter between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United.
Atletico Madrid are never an over 2.5 goals team. Under Rangnick, the idea isn’t that United should be either. However, Atletico’s archaic style keeps getting them caught out, and United are nowhere near fit enough nor focused enough to play the Rangnick well for longer than forty-five minutes at the moment. They keep playing well in the first-half, and falling apart in the second-half. The sole reason they managed to beat Leeds United at the weekend was because Leeds United simply aren’t very good, especially in defence. A better team would not have lost that game at 2-2 – and Atletico can be that team.
I don’t trust the hosts though. I’ve said for years that he needs to leave the club but they won’t make it happen because of the magnificent work he did at the club over many, many years. He should absolutely have a statue erected outside the Wanda Metropolitano of him, or even a stand named after him – but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t passed his ‘best before’ date. He cannot take Atletico to the next level. He cannot escape his cautious style, and it’s too outdated nowadays; just ask Mourinho.
Crucially, key centre-back Gimenez is a big doubt for this game. Without him, keeping a clean sheet against Ronaldo, Fernandes, and Sancho looks very unlikely. They also don’t have the same protection from midfield that they used to have, despite the right names being in the squad. They’re willing enough; Atletico are never short on that front. However, their defensive structure is really quite poor nowadays, and I suspect they’ll struggle to contain United here, at least for the first-half.
Would I advise you to back the visitors though? Absolutely not. Atletico have a far, far more capable attack than they’re given credit for, and that’s entirely Simeone’s fault; they’re too defensive. When they fall behind, and are forced to send men forward, that’s when Atletico are at their most watchable and entertaining. That’s when everybody gets reminded as to just how good they can be. Before that though, they look cautious and slow.
As I can’t accept the hosts keeping a clean sheet tonight, I believe we’ll see Atletico attack a fair amount – and that’ll lead to goals. You don’t need me to tell you how brilliant Griezmann can be. Correa too. Lemar and de Paul can impress too. Felix has been a bit of a peripheral figure this season for varying reasons but remains a phenomenal talent on his day. Cunha and Ferreira Carrasco won’t play but that’s probably a good thing, really – they’re both very inconsistent. The one I think will show up is Suarez though. He’s got a long history of playing brilliantly when his motivation is high. Last season, he wanted to prove Barcelona wrong for letting him go – and he did. This season, he’s been anonymous because he’s not had that extra motivation. An ex-Liverpool striker with his racist past against a fierce rival of his beloved Liverpool though? He’ll turn up here, the Uruguayan, I am sure of it.
With the proviso that United force them into it, Atletico should help to keep this game interesting. They’re going to have to change their style anyway, given that away goals don’t count anymore, so I have to believe that they’ll try harder than normal to outscore teams. I cannot begin to fathom them not attacking United right now either; Maguire is a walking disaster, and Shaw is in ‘lazy’ mode, and neither of them know what an offside trap is during such periods. It also remains to be seen how De Gea will fare on his first return to the club that raised him.
Bluntly put, although it’s not the preference of either team, I think we’ll see an over 2.5 goals game. Neither looks capable of keeping any team out at the moment, and both are very capable in the final third.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Champions League:
SL Benfica vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Copa Libertadores:
Bolivar La Paz vs Universidad Catolica (ECU)
America Mineiro vs Guarani Asuncion
Audax Italiano vs Estudiantes de la Plata
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universitario Lima
Recopa Sudamericana:
Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Sydney FC
Perth Glory vs Macarthur FC
Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Belgian Eerste Klsase:
AA Gent vs RFC Seraing
English Premier League:
Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur
Watford vs Crystal Palace
Liverpool vs Leeds United
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti vs Haka Valkeakoski
AC Oulu vs KuPS
SJK vs VPS
Italian Serie B:
Brescia vs Ascoli
Benevento vs Como
Crotone vs Cosenza
Lecce vs Cittadella
Frosinone vs Reggina
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantep vs Yeni Malatyaspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!