Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the early “Big Blue” kick-off between Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory.
What is going on at Sydney FC? Seriously now. I thought it was bizarre enough when they opted to keep Corica on after his contract expired (the big hint for them should have been the zero interest from overseas, which is always very telling in Australian football) after he essentially made a living off of Arnold’s good work before him. I think they’ve got their ‘reward’ for doing so without a thoroughly underwhelming pre-season transfer window.
Well, perhaps I am being harsh there. I like Rodwell; if they can keep him fit, then they’ve got a hell of a player. However, therein lies the problem; he’s always injured. Sure as shit, he’s a doubt for ‘the big blue’ too. Amusingly though, Corica has seen him play in midfield, watched him do his mazy runs through A-League defences, and thought to himself, “I spy a potential centre-back in the making here!”. Yes, their intention is to play him at centre-back, and with only five defenders in their entire squad (keep in mind that they generally play a 4-4-2) he’s going to end up playing there sooner or later. It’s doubtful it’ll be today though.
They’ve signed Lolley; that should be a good signing. Mak is someone I’ve admired for years; he should do well, if he can keep fit. They’ve got Brattan back from long-term injury, which is like a new signing. Caballo has settled in well as their new left-back, especially when getting forward. However, they’ve also done some weird stuff like keeping Le Fondre (who waned last season), not replacing Bobo (so no real alternative to the now 35-year old Le Fondre), not signing another defensive midfielder to help Retre, and not bringing in enough defenders.
The best way to surmise Sydney FC is like this; their starting eleven could, in theory, beat any A-League team on their day. However, there’s no other team in the A-League with such disparity between their starting eleven and their understudies. Any injury in this squad is going to disrupt them massively. They’re placing a lot of pressure on unproven kids, and they’re making themselves look very vulnerable. With the ball, they’ll be a threat. If they’re pressed successfully, then they’re in deep shit for a variety of reasons. Essentially, after the humiliation of finishing outside the play-off places last season, arguably Australia’s biggest club have not done anywhere near enough to ensure it won’t happen again.
Opponents Melbourne Victory know all about that though; they were there themselves a couple of years back, fans protesting at training sessions etc. However, they saw their problem, found a Popovic-shaped solution, and off they went. No, they’re not truly competing for major honours yet but they’re closer than they have been for ages because he’s a natural winner. His football is not even remotely entertaining, but his teams know how to hold a lead; that’s how they win.
I can’t honestly say that Victory have improved their squad pre-season really. Nani was a fine acquisition but Rojas was a big loss. Juric should be able to contribute more than Margiotta but will also be available far less often. Izzo is a good goalkeeper, but so was Kelava. I don’t necessarily think that this team is good enough to win the title – but they should at least claim a top three spot because they’ve got a lot of things right.
What’s important about this Victory side for this ‘big blue’ affair is they’re a settled team with an experienced, proven match winner leading them. Not only that, but Popovic has a reputation for starting his pre-season earlier and more intensely than most of his fellow managers so his teams tend to start very strongly because they’re fitter. Yesterday, City beat Western United by virtue of being fitter and pressing harder. Victory could do that against a somewhat slow Sydney FC team here too.
It’s still a derby so by no means am I offering a guarantee here. However, 83/100 on Victory with draw no bet does not reflect the growing gulf between these two teams in a number of ways nowadays, hence my interest. Sydney FC’s starting eleven might ask a few questions but this is no longer a match that they have any right to expect to win anymore. A draw is possible, so don’t get too bold with your pick, but I believe the value lies in backing the away team.
Verdict: Melbourne Victory to win with draw no bet at 83/100.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur FC
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK vs Hartberg
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau
SCR Altach vs Salzburg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Kortrijk
RFC Seraing vs KV Oostende
Zulte-Waregem vs OH Leuven
Club Brugge vs Westerlo
Brazilian Serie A:
Cuiaba vs Flamengo
Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Varazdin
Czechia Liga 1:
Hradec Kralove vs Teplice
Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Prague
Pardubice vs Baumit Jablonec
Viktoria Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs FC Nordsjaelland
English Premier League:
Bournemouth vs Leicester City
Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City vs Southampton
Newcastle United vs Brentford
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Tottenham Hotspur
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Legion vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva
Tammeka vs Nomme Kalju
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HIFK vs IFK Mariehamn
VPS vs AC Oulu
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs AC Ajaccio
Stade de Reims vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Schalke 04
Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig
VfL Bochum vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga 2:
Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Hansa Rostock vs Paderborn 07
Eintracht Braunschweig vs St. Pauli
Hamburger SV vs Kaiserslautern
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Vasas Budapest
Budapest Honved vs Mezokovesd-Zsory
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Hadera vs Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Maccabi Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Sassuolo vs Internazionale
AC Milan vs Juventus
Bologna vs Sampdoria
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Modena
Brescia vs Cittadella
Pisa vs Parma
Ternana vs Palermo
Venezia vs Bari
Frosinone vs SPAL
Reggina vs Cosenza
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dziugas Telisiai vs FA Siauliai
Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Volendam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Emmen
NEC vs Excelsior Rotterdam
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sarpsborg 08 vs Haugesund
Portuguese Liga 1:
Santa Clara vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Portimonense vs FC Porto
SL Benfica vs Rio Ave
Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Romanian Liga 1:
Universitatea Cluj vs Hermannstadt
Rapid Bucharest vs Botosani
Spanish Primera Liga:
Almeria vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Atletico Madrid vs Girona
Sevilla vs Athletic Club
Getafe vs Real Madrid
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Degerfors vs Sirius
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs FC Sion
Young Boys Bern vs St. Gallen
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne Sport
FC Wil vs Yverdon Sport
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbulspor vs Ankaragucu
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor
Giresunspor vs Besiktas JK
Enjoy your free betting tips!