Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Perth Glory and Melbourne Victory.
Glory have settled in quite well at Macedonia Park. They’re proving to be annoying to beat. They’re back to struggling with availability but that’s a perpetual struggle out west. I don’t really know what’s going on with Beevers and Ryan Williams – some sources say they’ve fallen out with Zadkovich, and some just say that they’re carrying knocks but they keep drifting in and out of the squad in a somewhat ad hoc fashion. Glory need both of them if they’re to win games like this one though.
I’d normally have given Glory the time of day when it came to a winner here too, given Victory’s malaise. The odds are appealing too. However, I just don’t know if they’re going to be able to break Victory down. Say what you like about a Popovic team, but they do generally know how to defend, and although I think the Miranda return is something of a smokescreen, there’s no denying that Spiranovic’s return has helped them defend more intelligently so Glory are going to have to find a way through.
Glory have several issues on that front though. Firstly, converted wing-back Khelifi is still injured – they miss him big time. He’s been electric for them this season. Ryan Williams is a key creator – I’ve already mentioned that I don’t know if he’ll play or not. New striker Taggart was brought in to be their lethal poacher for the third time but now he’s picked up an injury so it’ll be a misfit like Ivanovic or David Williams leading the line – good players, but nowhere near clinical enough. That, fused with a consistent 5-4-1 – well, let’s just say that it’ll take a lot of luck for Glory to find a way through here.
It’s no different for Victory though. They’ve lost Nani for the season, and no matter what their fans say, he was unquestionably one of their best players, even if it didn’t show enough on the pitch because of Popovic’s reluctance to send men forward regularly. They’ve lost goalkeeper Izzo, making them even more hesitant about attacking. The doubts over Miranda’s fitness don’t help at the back either, and losing screener Marchan to concussion is a real problem. They’re going to have to be cautious in this game because if they fall behind, I think they’ll lose it.
The far more pressing problem for Victory is in the final third though. They just don’t create chances, and when they do, everybody is under so much pressure to convert that they bottle it. Now they’re on the cusp of losing ex-Glory forward D’Agostino to Viking Stavanger in Norway. Popovic thinks he’ll play here but he’s probably just deluding himself because without him they lack mobility and energy at the top of their line. Ikonomidis and Folami will do their best but the latter still has his nose out of joint after being benched too many times this season, and Ikonomidis doesn’t have good enough movement in front of him. Barring some Brimmer magic – which also hasn’t been seen in ages – I just don’t know what Victory are going to do here to break through what is usually a pretty solid Glory setup.
I’m sure that Glory will bring enough energy to threaten, and I’m equally as sure that Victory will be the more composed/tactically efficient of the two teams. However, neither fill me with confidence when it comes to actually winning matches right now, and should either take the lead, I suspect they’ll try and sit on it. Therefore, under 2.5 goals is my call here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Sydney FC
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Westerlo
KV Mechelen vs Kortrijk
KV Oostende vs Cercle Brugge
Union Saint-Gilloise vs OH Leuven
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Rijeka
Dinamo Zagreb vs Gorica
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Southampton vs Aston Villa
West Ham United vs Everton
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Honka Espoo vs IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Ykkoscup:
Gnistan vs MP
French Coupe de France:
Niort vs AJ Auxerre
Thaon vs FC Nantes Atlantique
Stade Brestois vs Racing Club Lens
Lille OSC vs Pau
Toulouse vs AC Ajaccio
Bastia vs Lorient
Les Herbiers vs Stade de Reims
Chambery vs Olympique Lyonnais
FCOSK vs Angers SCO
German Bundesliga:
VfL Bochum vs Hertha Berlin
Union Berlin vs TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart vs Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Schalke 04
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg
Koln vs Werder Bremen
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Hadera vs MS Ashdod
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Bnei Sakhnin
Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Hellas Verona vs Lecce
Salernitana vs SSC Napoli
ACF Fiorentina vs Torino
Italian Serie B:
Venezia vs Sudtirol
Parma vs Perugia
Benevento vs Genoa
Como vs Pisa
Reggina vs Ternana
SPAL vs Ascoli
Modena vs Cosenza
Cittadella vs Cagliari
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC vs FC Emmen
PSV Eindhoven vs Vitesse Arnhem
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Sparta Rotterdam
RKC Waalwijk vs Go Ahead Eagles
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Braga
Santa Clara vs SL Benfica
Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Sociedad
RCD Espanyol vs Real Betis Balompie
Atletico Madrid vs Real Valladolid
Sevilla vs Cadiz
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs FC Zurich
Grasshopper Zurich vs Young Boys Bern
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!