FC Basel vs Luzern
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I’d love to back Luzern not to lose here but with Beloko out, I just don’t trust them enough defensively. Beloko helps them control games better alongside Jashari. When one of them is missing, Luzern lack the capacity to do that, and playing in such a way against FC Basel is very dangerous. This may not be the FC Basel of old, but it’s still one with very good individuals, and they’re playing at home too. That said, I wouldn’t endorse backing FC Basel either. Their standout player of the campaign – Burger – is suspended, so they’re not going to control this game particularly well either. Factoring in that both teams are missing one of their best defenders apiece (Comas and Burch respectively), I suspect this game will be more about attacking than defending. Therefore, I’ll cheerfully give the 1×2 market a miss here, and focus on goals instead.
Are Luzern confident enough to take the game to FC Basel? Absolutely. Frick has worked wonders there. It’s fair to say that the timing isn’t great for Luzern, though – Beloko is such a big miss for them, and Burch will be too. Keep in mind that they didn’t even play Burch’s usual defensive partner last weekend, opting to field Beka ahead of the battle-axe, which I found strange. This defence is not where it should be right now, and that’s not going to change in this game.
Luzern’s attacking is superb though. The alternating of Drager and Dorn on the right, Meyer’s drifting between the lines, Abubakar’s stretching of back lines, Sorgic’s positioning and finesse etc. – they’ve got options for every occasion, Luzern. I would perhaps argue that sometimes they’re not clinical enough but when Sorgic is ‘there’ mentally, he fits the bill nicely. They’ve also recently signed Kimpioka so they’re obviously hoping he’ll contribute more. I would also point out how good Chader was last time out – we may see more of him in the second half of their campaign.
This is a really good Luzern team. They’ve got good individuals, a good level of experience, excellent cohesion, and they’re flexible enough to deploy multiple styles. Frick has made really intelligent acquisitions that have fit in really easily, and the team benefits hugely from such. They may not be a top tier team in Switzerland nowadays but they soon will be if they keep this up because there aren’t many impressive Super League outfits right now, and pretty much everything Luzern are doing is right. Their defence may cost them points in Basel, but I don’t doubt them delivering an overall convincing display.
FC Basel are an anomaly. Predicting them has been a nightmare for a while now. The players are there, the club legend the fans wanted is in charge – and it’s still not working. This team does not play like a team, and I have no idea why. Some individuals shine from time to time, and some don’t. That’s all that denotes the outcome of FC Basel’s matches because collectively, they’re not good enough at either end. They don’t suffocate opponents enough, and they don’t hurt them enough.
They’ve got big absentee issues here though, FC Basel, so I suspect they’re going to have their hand forced into making this game more interesting. With Comas out, Katterbach gone, and Calafiori out, half of FC Basel’s back four is missing. They opted to play without Lang last match; he’s their best right-back. I know he picked up a slight niggle in recent friendly, but come on – he’s a warrior; he’d play if required. The ostracising of Pelmard hasn’t helped his confidence either. That defence – especially without Burger’s protection – is going to concede goals, especially if they field midfielder Frei in their backline again.
I like their options in midfield and attack but again, they just play as individuals. It’s no surprise to me that Ndoye is missed as much as he is. Sure, he’s one of their better players but what makes him so important is that he can make things happen by himself. His end product hasn’t been great this season but he’s a threat. Without him, they’re a bit predictable, unless Amdouni is in the mood. Millar’s nose is still out of joint after Frei benched him earlier in the season too. Subsequently, there’s a real over-reliance on Diouf at the moment that I don’t see him being good enough to handle. Last weekend they fielded Kade, who has barely been given a shot this season, which smarts of desperation. Augustin is still injured, Szalai still training by himself, Zeqiri is way out of favour, and I’ve not even seen Sene in ages, which is just bizarre after such a good loan spell with Grasshopper Zurich last season. Frei has gotten so desperate now that he had a teenager – Akale – on the bench last match because he’s sick of his existing attacking options.
Bluntly put, FC Basel have a lot of problems. At home, I think they can take advantage of Luzern’s defensive situation but I wouldn’t bank on them winning it. I don’t see them controlling the game well enough, and I’d be pretty damn shocked if they kept Luzern out here. Again, I won’t touch the 1×2 market because of absentees, but backing goals simply makes sense, especially after the mistakes that both teams made at the back last weekend.
Verdict: Over 3 Asian goals at 26/25.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory
Macarthur FC vs Western United
Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo vs KV Mechelen
OH Leuven vs Sint-Truiden
Kortrijk vs KV Oostende
Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Croatian Prva Liga:
Sibenik vs Rijeka
Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Czechia Liga 1:
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice
Viktoria Plzen vs Hradec Kralove
Slovacko vs Ceske Budejovice
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Prague
English FA Cup:
Walsall vs Leicester City
Accrington Stanley vs Leeds United
Southampton vs Blackpool
Fulham vs Sunderland
Preston North End vs Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United vs Reading
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti vs FC Honka Espoo
SJK vs KuPS
AC Oulu vs Ilves
VPS vs Haka Valkeakoski
Finnish Ykkoscup:
HIFK vs Gnistan
Jaro Pietarsaari vs SJK-Akatemia
KPV vs JJK
French Ligue 1:
Troyes vs Racing Club Lens
Olympique de Marseille vs AS Monaco
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs VfL Bochum
TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin
SC Freiburg vs Augsburg
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt
German Bundesliga 2:
Holstein Kiel vs Greuther Furth
Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock
Darmstadt 98 vs Jahn Regensburg
Hannover 96 vs Kaiserslautern
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Paksi SE
Debreceni VSC vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Ferencvaros vs Vasas Budapest
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
MS Ashdod vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya vs Sektzia Nes Tziona
Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Italian Serie A:
Empoli vs Torino
Cremonese vs Internazionale
Atalanta Bergamo vs Sampdoria
Italian Serie B:
Sudtirol vs Reggina
Venezia vs Cittadella
Ascoli vs Palermo
Cosenza vs Parma
Ternana vs Modena
Brescia vs Como
Bari vs Perugia
Genoa vs Pisa
Dutch Eredivisie:
PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles
RKC Waalwijk vs FC Emmen
NEC vs Sparta Rotterdam
SC Heerenveen vs Vitesse Arnhem
AZ vs FC Utrecht
Spanish Primera Liga:
Cadiz vs Real Mallorca
Girona vs Barcelona
Sevilla vs Elche
Getafe vs Real Betis Balompie
Swiss Super League:
Lugano vs Grasshopper Zurich
FC Basel vs Luzern
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs FC Thun
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor
Ankaragucu vs Gaziantep
Giresunspor vs Galatasaray
Antalyaspor vs Umraniyespor
Enjoy your free betting tips!