Holstein Kiel vs Paderborn 07
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Today’s free tip is in the German Bundesliga 2 affair between Holstein Kiel and Paderborn 07.
Opposing Holstein Kiel at home is quite brave. It’s difficult to think of a zanier and more untameable Bundesliga 2 team than them. They’re capable of beating any team in this division on their day – but also losing against any of them. They’re far better equipped to attack than defend but they’re simply a very inconsistent outfit. Trusting them is a nightmare. I’ve seen them batter teams this season and still lose. Last time out, they were on the receiving end of a battering – but still won. Get the picture? They’re very random!
One thing they’re not is boring, though. Entertainment is guaranteed in the far north, and I expect it today too, even if Paderborn 07 attempt to instil their usual suffocating tactics away from home (which didn’t work so well in Saxony recently). Holstein Kiel have a way of forcing teams out. Ironically, it doesn’t help the home team as often as it should, but it does make things interesting. Paderborn 07 are well equipped to handle the game either way; they just trust themselves more when they can play the percentages game.
On paper, it’s not hard to see why Holstein Kiel trouble teams. Holtby – despite his perpetual injury problems – along with Muhling, Bartels, Porath, and Reese making things happen (as well as adventurous defenders) makes life complicated for opposing teams. They do miss Pichler’s finesse up front but Skrzybski has contributed where he can. Wriedt is just an intimidating physical specimen; not a good finisher. Arp has been a huge disappointment again – lots of potential but offers little in reality.
They’re not to be underestimated though. Their defence can concede against any team at any time, but their never-say-die attitude, intensity, and stamina makes Holstein Kiel a tough cookie. If you go there with the wrong attitude, they’ll do you – it’s that simple. Or rather, they’ll threaten to do you – effectiveness is not high on their list of things to do, it seems! Again though, they’ll be entertaining, and I’m sure they’ll give Paderborn 07 things to think about.
The trouble that Holstein Kiel are going to have here is that the visitors look really slick. For my money, they’re the best team in the division. Hamburger SV may have more money, but mentally Paderborn 07 convince me a lot more. They know when to attack, when to defend, and they’re good at both. They accept that they won’t dominate every opponent, and they know how to win matches by percentages alone. They’re a serious team, and thus should be treated as such.
The big issue that Bundesliga 2 teams tend to have when confronted with mighty Paderborn 07 is knowing which player to stop. They don’t rely on one player, basically. For example, when Schalke 04 got promoted last season, everybody knew it was all about Terodde banging in the goals. For Paderborn 07, it’s numerous players – Platte, Conteh, Srbeny, Pieringer, Leipertz, Muslija, Justvan – the list goes on. Any of those players can turn up at any time, and decide a game in their favour. Containing so many threats – especially at this level – is a nightmare.
Kwasniok has done a cracking job with Paderborn 07, really. There was a very real danger of them fading into anonymity after their disappointing campaign following relegation from the Bundesliga. They lost some important players, made weird signings, and looked worse for wear. Now, though? They look fresh, hungry, disciplined, and dangerous. There’s still a bit of work to do at the back, especially with Hunemeier ageing, but this is a good group that is experienced and on the same page i.e. to be taken seriously.
I’ve not been blown away by Paderborn 07 in 2023, at least not in terms of displays. For example, I thought that Fortuna gave them a good ride until their second-half capitalisation. I thought they were lucky against Karlsruher SC. They let Hannover 96 hurt them to much, and didn’t really look like breaking through before they eventually beat Kaiserslautern last time out. Here’s the thing, though – they found ways to win all of those matches. That’s what winners do.
Therefore, whether the play well in the north or not, I have to believe that backing Paderborn 07 to win this game is a risk worth taking.
Verdict: Paderborn 07 to win at 13/10.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Sydney FC
Newcastle Jets vs Western United
Western Sydney Wanderers vs Macarthur FC
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Vienna vs Hartberg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
RFC Seraing vs KV Mechelen
Racing Genk vs KV Oostende
AS Eupen vs Cercle Brugge
Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda
Spartak Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
Croatian Prva Liga:
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czechia Liga 1:
Zlin vs Sparta Prague
Mlada Boleslav vs Ceske Budejovice
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovan Liberec
English Premier League:
Everton vs Aston Villa
Leeds United vs Southampton
Leicester City vs Arsenal
West Ham United vs Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti vs KTP
Ilves vs SJK
KuPS vs VPS
French Ligue 1:
Angers SCO vs Olympique Lyonnais
Montpellier HSC vs Racing Club Lens
German Bundesliga:
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Koln vs VfL Wolfsburg
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Hertha Berlin vs Augsburg
Werder Bremen vs VfL Bochum
Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga 2:
Nurnberg vs SV Sandhausen
Kaiserslautern vs Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel vs Paderborn 07
Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV
Hungarian Liga 1:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar
Puskas FC vs Paksi SE
Vasas Budapest vs Varda SE
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs MS Ashdod
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Hadera
Maccabi Haifa vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Empoli vs SSC Napoli
Lecce vs Sassuolo
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Modena
Sudtirol vs Palermo
Ternana vs Cittadella
Como vs Cosenza
Venezia vs Cagliari
Brescia vs Bari
Genoa vs SPAL
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Groningen vs Excelsior Rotterdam
SC Heerenveen vs RKC Waalwijk
AZ vs Cambuur Leeuwarden
NEC vs FC Volendam
Portuguese Liga 1:
Arouca vs Casa Pia
Maritimo Funchal vs Santa Clara
Vizela vs SL Benfica
Spanish Primera Liga:
RCD Espanyol vs Real Mallorca
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Swiss Super League:
FC Sion vs St. Gallen
FC Zurich vs Young Boys Bern
Enjoy your free betting tips!