Servette vs FC Winterthur
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Today’s free tip is in the Swiss Super League encounter between Servette and FC Winterthur.
Most bettors seem to think that the value lies in backing Winterthur to avoid defeat in Geneva. I get it – they really have impressed me in 2023. They’ve been so well-organised, and even when they’ve dropped points they’ve typically deserved more from the games they’ve played in. I still don’t know how FC Sion robbed them last weekend, nor Servette themselves before that. I really must take my hat off to Berner because tactically, Winterthur have been a revelation in 2023.
However, I think it’s different, playing at home against Servette vs playing away from home against them. Keep in mind that the home game was called off twice due to a frozen pitch, and it wasn’t much better when the game went ahead. Compare that to the bowling green of a pitch at the Stade de Geneve – it’s chalk and cheese, really. Servette look after their pitch as well as they do because they play some fantastic football on it; the best in Switzerland (on their day), in my opinion. They know how to stretch opponents, how to control them, and how to score goals. They’re a very dangerous side indeed, and I would have to be more impressed with Winterthur than I am in order to believe that they’d avoid defeat here.
Of course, there’s logic in opposing Servette too. I really don’t think that they’ve been consistent enough in 2023, for example. There have been so many games that they’ve only played well for part of, and in the rest of it they’ve embarrassed themselves. The derby against FC Sion sticks in my mind as the worst, really. I mean, how they dominated like they did in the first-half only to give two ridiculously easy goals away against ten men in the second-half (who weren’t even playing well) is just mind-boggling. So, yeah – I do get the desire to doubt Servette.
I don’t doubt them though. Douline is out; that’s not ideal but Valls can fill in. Bedia is back to his best up front, and that’s been their biggest problem this season. Yes, they need to find a centre-back pairing that works because Severin and Vouilloz/Rouiller just isn’t it. Still, with Clichy back at left-back, and Mbabu having returned to the club on loan at right-back, this team suddenly looks a lot more imposing. Keep in mind that Antunes is getting back to his best too, and how much of a match-winner Stevanovic is on his day. I don’t quite understand the Pflucke ahead of Kutesa debate but other than that, I do trust Servette, especially at home. They’ve got their shortcomings, but beating Winterthur at the moment typically just involves scoring – and they’re not having any issues there.
I want to reiterate how impressed I’ve been with Winterthur of late though. I really didn’t think Berner had the balls to play with anything but a 5-4-1 because of how fragile they were in defence. However, since acquiring Ardaiz on loan, he’s been pairing him with Buess more often than not, and that’s very adventurous. Why not, though? Ramizi, Burkart, and Di Giusto are causing a lot of problems, and they’re not going to stay up by simply defending. It’s a little surprising that Schmid has been getting the nod over Gelmi in defence but this is no time to doubt Berner; they’ve looked really well prepared for all of their matches in 2023, even when they’ve gone on to lose.
I do think that Winterthur will cause Servette problems here, in short. They’ve even got Fayulu back in net so they’ve nothing to worry about. However, this is a team that deploys a hit-and-run approach, and against Servette I don’t see that working too well. You need to get at them and force them into errors, generally speaking. Letting them have the ball uninterrupted is usually fatal because they’re very, very good at monopolising it, and finding ways through opposing teams. I actually think they’ll end up switching back to their 4-2-3-1 for this fixture, Winterthur, but let’s wait and see.
For me, backing Servette to beat most Super League teams at home at 4/5 is something to be seriously considered. Winterthur are a problem, but if the game is played Geiger-style, the home team will win – and it usually is in Geneva.
Verdict: Servette to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna
SCR Altach vs WSG Tirol
Salzburg vs SV Ried
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs AA Gent
OH Leuven vs Antwerp
RSC Anderlecht vs Standard de Liege
Sporting Charleroi vs Sint-Truiden
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Hebar 1918
Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
NK Osijek vs Varazdin
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
Slavia Prague vs Slovacko
Baumit Jablonec vs Teplice
Banik Ostrava vs Hradec Kralove
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Lyngby
AC Horsens vs Viborg
FC Copenhagen vs Aalborg BK
AGF vs Silkeborg
English Premier League:
Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea
English League Cup:
Manchester United vs Newcastle United
Estonian Super Cup:
Flora Tallinn vs Flora Paide
Faroese Super Cup:
KI vs Vikingur Gota
French Ligue 1:
Lorient vs AJ Auxerre
AC Ajaccio vs Troyes
Clermont Foot 38 vs Racing Club Strasbourg
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Stade Rennais
Stade de Reims vs Toulouse
AS Monaco vs OGC Nice
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
German Bundesliga 2:
Hannover 96 vs Magdeburg
Arminia Bielefeld vs Heidenheim
St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kecskemeti TE vs Ujpest
Debreceni VSC vs Ferencvaros
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Internazionale
Salernitana vs Monza
Udinese vs Spezia
Milan vs Atalanta Bergamo
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Benevento
Dutch Eredivisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
FC Emmen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Vitesse Arnhem vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Twente Enschede
Portuguese Liga 1:
Rio Ave vs Chaves
Pacos de Ferreira vs Boavista
FC Porto vs Gil Vicente
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club vs Girona
Celta de Vigo vs Real Valladolid
Almeria vs Barcelona
Sevilla vs CA Osasuna
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Grasshopper Zurich
Servette vs FC Winterthur
Lugano vs FC Basel
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs AC Bellinzona
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Schaffhausen
Vaduz vs Neuchatel Xamax
Enjoy your free betting tips!