Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Western Sydney Wanderers and Melbourne Victory.
Seeing WSW trying to defend without Marcelo lately has been an eye-opening experience. Nevertheless, I believe they’ll win this one, assuming Victory don’t have the same luck that the Jets had yesterday.
To rile a Marcelo-less WSW, you need to apply pressure, and constantly ask questions via both crosses into the box and also via direct running with the ball. Victory don’t really do either of those things, which is why I’m prepared to trust Mrcela and Beadling to do the job here. I do think that their confidence has been shaken a bit by conceding so many goals lately. That much was evident in the derby draw against Macarthur FC. Still, at home, in a game that they must win, and hosting a team that is afraid to commit men forward? They should be able to have their opponents on toast here.
Don’t get me wrong – Victory do hold defensive lines well. They’ll be hard to score against here. I don’t doubt that it’ll take a lot of WSW cunning and perseverance to make a dent. They’ve got the players to do that nowadays, though – that’s just it. Earlier in the season it was literally just Yengi and Ninkovic, the former of which has injury troubles in general, and the latter of which was getting on a bit. Now, though? Schneiderlin is pulling the strings, Amalfitano and N’Gbakoto have settled in superbly, Nieuwenhof has emerged as a star, and Layouni has looked amazing since joining so suddenly they’ve got a load of options, enough so for Yengi and Ninkovic to be utilised selectively.
For me, the above combination is enough to unlock a stubborn Victory defence. I’m especially confident there because the visitors need to win if they’re to avoid the embarrassment of one of Australia’s biggest clubs failing to make the play-offs again. Not only that, but they desperately want to avoid the wooden spoon spot too. Therefore, at some point (probably only late on), Victory are going to have to push out, and that’s when a fast WSW counter should be able to do them a lot of damage because Victory’s defence is slow.
Victory could hurt WSW if afforded space. Fornaroli and Romero are tricky customers, but in order to get the best out of them, I think they’ll need Ikonomidis and Folami to be at their incisive best, which neither of them have been for most of this season. It just makes Victory too predictable, in my experience. Unless they bag from a set piece or a lucky penalty, they just don’t threaten.
Victory also struggle because Popovic keeps playing defender Chapman in midfield ahead of Brillante or Marchan. He works hard enough, but he’s not a distributor so he doesn’t help the building up of play. They also may find themselves without injury-prone right-back Geria again, who has a hip issue, and they miss his mobility and physicality a lot – and at both ends of the pitch. I just see too many weaknesses, and too much mental fragility in this Victory squad. I can’t see how they’d get a positive result in Sydney right now.
Therefore, with the proviso that WSW hold their cool when they find space in front of goal, then they should be able to win this game. There’s no reason to believe that they won’t as Victory would have to do to them something that they’ve not done to any opponent all season long in order to unsettle them. To put it another way, if WSW don’t win this game, then they can only blame themselves.
Verdict: Western Sydney Wanderers to win at 23/20.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory
Austrian Bundesliga:
Hartberg vs SCR Altach
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen vs Zulte-Waregem
Cercle Brugge vs Sint-Truiden
KV Oostende vs OH Leuven
Westerlo vs Club Brugge
Brazilian Serie A:
America Mineiro vs Fluminense
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
Fortaleza vs Internacional
Athletico Paranaense vs Goias
RB Bragantino vs Bahia
Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Slavia Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czechia Liga 1:
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc
Teplice vs Slovacko
Baumit Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Everton vs Fulham
Southampton vs Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Brentford
Manchester City vs Leicester City
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs SJK
Ilves vs Inter Turku
VPS vs HJK
Finnish Ykkonen:
SalPa vs JaPS
KPV vs JJK
Ekenas IF vs TPS
French Ligue 1:
Stade Rennais vs Stade de Reims
Paris Saint-Germain vs Racing Club Lens
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs TSG Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
Koln vs Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg
Magdeburg vs SV Sandhausen
Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kecskemeti TE vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Vasas Budapest
Ferencvaros vs Budapest Honved
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs MS Ashdod
Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Hapoel Hadera vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Milan
SSC Napoli vs Hellas Verona
Internazionale vs Monza
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Sudtirol
Bari vs Como
Benevento vs Reggina
Cosenza vs Cittadella
Genoa vs Perugia
SPAL vs Brescia
Venezia vs Palermo
Cagliari vs Frosinone
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FK Panevezys vs Dainava
FA Siauliai vs Dziugas Telisiai
Kauno Zalgiris vs Riteriai
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs FC Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Lillestrom SK
Portuguese Liga 1:
Estoril vs Portimonense
Maritimo Funchal vs Pacos de Ferreira
Chaves vs SL Benfica
FC Porto vs Santa Clara
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal vs Real Valladolid
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Real Betis Balompie vs RCD Espanyol
Cadiz vs Real Madrid
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Brommapojkarna
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Kalmar FF
Swiss Super League:
Servette vs Lugano
Luzern vs FC Zurich
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbulspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Adana Demirspor vs Kasimpasa
Fenerbahce vs Ankaragucu
Enjoy your free betting tips!