Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners
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Today’s free tip is in the A-League encounter between Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners.
The bookies think there’ll be goals here, and they’ve every right to feel that way – so do I! Whether either team has the composure to take their chances or not remains to be seen, but chance creation should happen very authentically here.
The Mariners do tend to struggle to impose themselves away from home, although I was ultimately impressed by their F3 derby performance despite a slow start. The trouble is that the Mariners play rather boldly in general. They know that Triantis and Kaltak will mop up a number of attacks from their opponents so they’re happier to play higher up the pitch. They want to be on the ball, want to overwhelm opponents, and get danger men like Nkololo, Silvera, Tulio, and Cummings in front of goal. When they do, they score goals – it’s that simple.
The visitors do not struggle to create, for the most part, and I don’t see that changing against an Adelaide United side that is conceding a lot of chances right now, even in games that they control. Given that the Mariners need to win, I don’t think they’ll spring any surprises here; they’re going to go for three points. I wouldn’t bet against it, either. They’re in a better place than their hosts in terms of recent displays and all-round performances.
Still, let’s not pretend that the Mariners are perfect; they’re not. They’re very impressive, and are worthy of being respected, but they’re certainly not unbeatable. If you time the runs in behind their defence properly then long balls will be effective, which is why Kaltak has been sent off as many times as he has this season. McGarry and Roux love to get forward but are better at doing so than defending. In other words, they do leave gaps, Montgomery’s boys, and those gaps can be punished, as even a ten-men Jets almost did for the last 5-10 mins of the F3 derby.
Adelaide United are blessed with finishers with a lot of composure at the moment. They’ve been that way for a couple of months now, to their credit. They do create a lot of chances when permitted to do so, but even when not, they tend to take their chances better than those around them. Barring an abject showing against Western United, it’s hard to think of a game where they didn’t have good chances throughout the contest. With Halloran, Goodwin, Ibusuki, and Irankunda all real handfuls, I don’t doubt Adelaide United scoring here, particularly at home.
Much like the Mariners though, they need to win, and that means taking risks. Now, again, much like the Mariners, they look suspect when they push out. Barr isn’t the best on the ball, for example – and that’s assuming he’s fit enough to play – so closing him down is usually a good idea. Warland is a good centre-back but isn’t the fastest, just like Barr. Lopez isn’t as mobile as he once was, and despite Kitto playing marvellously of late, he’s still better at attacking than defending. Factor in the unkind ageing process for Isaias and the continued absence of his defensive midfielder partner Juande, and you’ve got a team that will give chances away, especially in games that they need to win.
Adelaide United do need to win, though – that’s the key here. They’re above the Mariners and WSW but only by a point, and playing for a draw here does not guarantee that City won’t capitulate in a dead rubber game for them, meaning that three points are a must. Adelaide United are very strong at home; moreso than most in the A-League, I would argue. However, they’re not infallible, and they’re giving away too many chances at the moment so the home win doesn’t do a lot for me.
However, backing over 3.5 goals simply makes sense here. Both teams must win, and both teams are going to go for it.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at evens.
Friday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners
Austrian Bundesliga:
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Westerlo
Bulgarian A PFG:
Septemvri Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs OB
French Ligue 1:
Racing Club Strasbourg vs Olympique Lyonnais
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tammeka vs Trans Narva
Laagri vs Vaprus Parnu
German Bundesliga:
VfL Bochum vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs Heidenheim
Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kecskemeti TE vs Paksi SE
Italian Serie A:
Lecce vs Udinese
Spezia vs Monza
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole
Portuguese Liga 1:
Rio Ave vs Arouca
Spanish Primera Liga:
CA Osasuna vs Real Sociedad
Swiss Challenge League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Thun
FC Wil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Lausanne Sport vs FC Schaffhausen
Turkish Super Lig:
Alanyaspor vs Umraniyespor
Enjoy your free betting tips!