Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners.
I’d only advise backing this selection with draw no bet cover. It’s a two-legged affair so the Mariners are well within their rights to sit back and wait for opportunities to come here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. I mean, Adelaide United have struggled to create lately; forget the Phoenix win. The Mariners can annoy them here, just as they have done for their last two meetings in a row, each of which resulted in a resounding Mariners victory.
I still don’t enjoy opposing Adelaide United at home, mind you. They tend to do well there. It’s just of late the reality of their matches in 2023 has come back to bite them in the arse. What do I mean by that? Well, their xG has been really low for a team that’s scored as many as they have. They’ve been wonderfully clinical over the past few months but that’s all that’s separated them from others at times. They’ve not been amazing from start to finish, you know? Of late though, they’ve found it hard to take those chances for a variety of reasons, and it’s resulted in some bad displays and lessened confidence.
One specific issue they’ve had has been Clough’s absence because anyone else picking a pass in the final third isn’t all that easy to do – well, not successfully, at least. They’ve had some joy with Barnett pressing higher in his stead, but Clough has been missed. He’s back in the squad today – as is Barnett – but whether used or not remains to be seen as the Englishman is very injury-prone. It’s not been their only problem though – Goodwin has been a bit fatigued, as has Halloran, and Ibusuki’s injury hasn’t helped. They’re still not all that comfortable without Juande in midfield either, and lately have chopped and changed centre-backs because Veart – previously unhappy with Popovic – is now seemingly unhappy with Barr. There’s a lot going on there, really.
By contrast, the Mariners are gliding along seamlessly. They’ve had a week’s rest, and have a fully fit squad (barring long-term casualty Tapp). They’ve looked really hungry throughout 2023, and are absolutely lethal in the final third. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Cummings, Tulio, Silvera, or Nkololo – one of them will find a way through, especially with Nisbet pulling the strings, and a constant plethora of options for him when in possession because of overlapping full-backs too.
Sometimes the Mariners leave themselves a bit open with their high defensive line because Triantis and Kaltak are quite good at dealing with such nowadays. As long as they adjust accordingly when Irankunda’s almost inevitably subbed on, I’d like to think they’d be ok here. They should be able to contain their hosts rather well, interrupt them if they’re getting a bit too much of the ball, and punish them for the mistakes that they always make.
I hate to be dismissive of Adelaide United at home, especially in a two-legged affair, but I’m struggling to envision a logical scenario in which they triumph here. The Mariners are better than them, more clinical than them right now, fitter than them, and more mentally tough to boot. It doesn’t guarantee an away win, but it does mean that a home win is somewhat unlikely here so I’m a tad surprised that the bookies have these two level-pegging.
For me, the Mariners win with draw no bet makes sense.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win with draw no bet at 19/20.
Saturdday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners
Austrian Bundesliga:
SCR Altach vs Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge vs AA Gent
Standard de Liege vs Westerlo
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia vs Flamengo
Fluminense vs Cuiaba
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Atletico Mineiro vs Internacional
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
Istra 1961 vs Gorica
Czechia Liga 1:
Viktoria Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague
Slovan Liberec vs Ceske Budejovice
Hradec Kralove vs Mlada Boleslav
English Premier League:
Leeds United vs Newcastle United
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Southampton vs Fulham
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Vaprus Parnu vs Tallinna Kalev
Flora Paide vs Tammeka
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs KTP
FC Honka Espoo vs KuPS
HJK vs Inter Turku
AC Oulu vs VPS
SJK vs Ilves
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski
Finnish Ykkonen:
MP vs Jaro Pietarsaari
KPV vs JaPS
JJK vs HIFK
Ekenas IF vs SJK-Akatemia
TPS vs Gnistan
French Ligue 1:
Racing Club Strasbourg vs OGC Nice
Paris Saint-Germain vs AC Ajaccio
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Schalke 04
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim
VfL Bochum vs Augsburg
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Holstein Kiel vs Karlsruher SC
Kaiserslautern vs Arminia Bielefeld
St. Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Hungarian Liga 1:
Vasas Budapest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Debreceni VSC vs Budapest Honved
Kecskemeti TE vs Ferencvaros
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Salernitana vs Atalanta Bergamo
Spezia vs Milan
Internazionale vs Sassuolo
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Cosenza
Bari vs Reggina
Benevento vs Modena
Brescia vs Pisa
Cagliari vs Palermo
Como vs Ternana
Frosinone vs Genoa
SPAL vs Parma
Sudtirol vs Cittadella
Venezia vs Perugia
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dainava vs Riteriai
FK Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam
SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior Rotterdam
FC Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg BK
Hamarkamaratene vs Tromso
Molde FK vs Stromsgodset
Sandefjord vs Viking Stavanger
Sarpsborg 08 vs Brann Bergen
Stabaek vs Aalesund FK
Haugesund vs Valerenga Oslo
Portuguese Liga 1:
Chaves vs Pacos de Ferreira
Vizela vs Famalicao
Portimonense vs SL Benfica
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Maritimo Funchal
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Girona
CA Osasuna vs Almeria
Villarreal vs Athletic Club
Real Madrid vs Getafe
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Degerfors
Varberg vs IFK Norrkoping
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Luzern
Servette vs FC Sion
Swiss Challenge League:
Yverdon Sport vs FC Thun
Enjoy your free betting tips!