Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama. Logically speaking, this should be a dreadful affair; definitely not one for in-play value picks. Both teams have a ‘defend first’ policy, and in Sao Paulo’s case, it’s been active for quite some years now.
However, I do think that there’s pre-game value to be found by backing the home win. Sao Paulo, love them or hate them, are simply better at playing anti-football than Vasco da Gama are. They’ve just beaten Sport Recife away from home by playing this way (and that’s an awful pitch to play on), and have generally annoyed the hell out of all opponents they’ve faced under Dorival Junior this season because of how well they’re defending. Wonderkid Beraldo and Arboleda have made for an excellent pairing at centre-back, and with Rafael and Rafinha both in the mixer to keep an eye on things, Sao Paulo won’t concede many goals this season, especially not when you consider how cautious they are.
Scoring goals is Sao Paulo’s bugbear, and it is a sore point, I must confess. The good news is that Calleri is too good for Serie A level. The bad news is that most of those around him aren’t natural goal-scorers. I know Luciano is favoured but this simply isn’t a goal-scoring team. That’s why they place such emphasis on not conceding the first goal; they know it’s going to be game over if they do. Luckily, they somehow managed to talk Marcos Paulo into playing for them and he’s doing a sterling job.
Sao Paulo see enough of the ball to make things happen, even if they’re not especially good at it. I believe that scoring one chance in this game would be enough, and in Luciano, Paulo, and Calleri they really should be able to manage that much, especially as the Rio de Janeiro outfit are likely to let them control the game. Again, this is not likely to be a gripping, edge-of-your-seat performance, but it’s one that Sao Paulo should be able to grind out a win in. Also, I know they’re heading to Venezuela for their next match but it’s in a lesser continental competition, and absentees kinda makes it unlikely that they’ll rotate right now.
I see what Vasco da Gama did pre-season to try and prepare for life back in Serie A. I mean, Bambu at centre-back, Teixeira as playmaker – I get it. They want to make the most of the ball when they have it whilst also giving nothing away. However, at the moment it’s just a concept; the reality isn’t there. It takes time to get a team to play in this manner, and the visitors haven’t had long enough together. Subsequently, although nobody is battering them, they’re not imposing themselves well enough.
I appreciate that Vasco da Gama are away here, but look at their recent home games – 1-0 losses against Bahia (who can’t defend) and Santos (who also can’t defend). They’re not annoying anybody, basically. The only games they’re getting something from are those in which they score, and that’s not happening often enough. I very much doubt that Sao Paulo will be as charitable as Coritiba or Fluminense, for example.
Therefore, unless Teixeira pulls a rabbit out of his hat, I can see this team struggling. Sao Paulo give little away, and Vasco da Gama can’t keep teams out. I haven’t seen enough progress from the visitors to believe that they’ll suddenly irk a team that’s been playing this soulless brand of football for years now, and I’ve seen enough from Sao Paulo this season to believe that they’ll capitalise upon Vasco da Gama’s generosity.
For me, the home win at 4/5 is worthy of your consideration.
Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at 4/5.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United
Austrian Bundesliga:
Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Tirol
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo vs Standard de Liege
AA Gent vs Cercle Brugge
Brazilian Serie A:
RB Bragantino vs Athletico Paranaense
Bahia vs Goias
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza
Botafogo vs Fluminense
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
Coritiba vs Atletico Mineiro
Santos vs Palmeiras
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Ludogorets Razgrad vs CSKA Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Gorica vs Varazdin
Czechia Liga 1:
Slovacko vs Sigma Olomouc
Sparta Prague vs Bohemians 1905
Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen
English Premier League:
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford
Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Nomme Kalju
Kuressaare vs Tallinna Kalev
Faroese Betrideildin:
EB/Streymur vs IF
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS vs FC Lahti
Finnish Ykkonen:
SalPa vs Ekenas IF
JJK vs KaPa
French Ligue 1:
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Montpellier HSC
Lille OSC vs Olympique de Marseille
German Bundesliga:
TSG Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin
Hertha Berlin vs VfL Bochum
Schalke 04 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen vs Koln
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn 07
Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Jahn Regensburg
Hamburger SV vs Greuther Furth
Hungarian Liga 1:
Fehervar vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Ferencvaros vs Debreceni VSC
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Cremonese vs Bologna
Atalanta Bergamo vs Hellas Verona
Milan vs Sampdoria
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Zalgiris vs Dainava
Portuguese Liga 1:
Arouca vs Chaves
Santa Clara vs Portimonense
Boavista vs Sporting Braga
Famalicao vs FC Porto
Spanish Primera Liga:
Girona vs Villarreal
Athletic Club vs Celta de Vigo
Almeria vs Real Mallorca
Getafe vs Elche
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Degerfors vs AIK Solna
Swiss Super League:
FC Winterthur vs Servette
Luzern vs St. Gallen
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Wil vs Vaduz
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Istanbulspor
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor
Galatasaray vs Sivasspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!