Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors
FreeToday’s featured game is the Argentinian Primera Division encounter between Velez Sarsfield and Boca Juniors. Velez Sarsfield have launched a solid bid for each Apertura and Clausura title for some time now whereas it’s been some time since Boca Juniors have looked like winning it. Boca are the bigger of these two sides but the balance of power is shifting in Argentina so it’ll be interesting to see just how this develops.
Velez Sarsfield are notorious for being extremely efficient and well-organised; two characteristics that you don’t tend to associate with Argentinian sides. That said, their disappointing 3-2 defeat at goal-shy Huracan last match whilst being reduced to nine men suggests otherwise but I’m still confident with my point! Velez have won two out of their three home games in the Primera Division this season, drawing the other encounter. Velez have scored an average of two goals per game and have generally been convincing barring a rather rusty opening day draw with a good Colon de Santa Fe side. Velez have given some very assured performances wherever they’ve played this season (barring last match) – in Venezuela in the Copa Libertadores, at home to last year’s Copa Libertadores runners-up Cruzeiro, keeping a clean sheet at rivals San Lorenzo de Almagro, annihlating well-organised Independiente – the list goes on. My point is that Velez are simply a good side that is very well-organised and has a good level of ability, probably the best in Argentina in my opinion. Velez haven’t lost at home to Boca in Boca’s last four visits with Velez winning three times and drawing once. Indeed, Boca have only beaten Velez once at either ground in their last six meetings so you can see how the balance is shifting in this division.
Boca Juniors are still a giant club within Argentina but their performances are somewhat lacklustre and disappointing nowadays. Their glory days appear to be behind them and it’s always sad to see that, in my opinion. The fact that Boca have only won once in the Primera Division this season despite playing six times speaks volumes. They’ve only overcome a defensively-inept Lanus side whereas they’ve been held to draws by the likes of Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, Atletico Tucuman, and Argentinos Juniors and were even crushed 4-2 by Newell’s Old Boys. Boca simply aren’t a good side anymore and only manage to produce good performances against below par sides generally. Boca may have only lost once this season but they’ve just not looked like winning, something which has to be concerning for them. If a side like Atletico Tucuman can go to Boca Juniors and emerge with a clean sheet then Boca have issues.
I feel Velez Sarsfield are twice that side that Boca Juniors are nowadays, frankly. Their form in head-to-heads and in general in recent times is far more assured and they tend to be ruthless with it. Velez are more than capable of embarassing Boca Juniors tonight and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. Boca will come here for the draw but I just don’t think they’re good enough to get it, simply. The odds on the home win should be very much worthwhile tonight.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Aldershot Town vs Bradford City – home win at 11/10.
I love backing Aldershot Town, although they did fuck us all over winning at Chesterfield last match! Nonetheless, this is a testament to their capability so I’ll never hear a bad word against them!
Aldershot have won eight out of sixteen home games this season, losing just twice along the way. Their form has been patchy of late but their ability is unquestionable. Their predominant strength is goalscoring, something that they average doing more than twice per home game, which is one of the best records in League Two. They’re not shy when it comes to conceding goals, unfortunately, but they tend to outscore their opponents and make this game a very tough away trip. Aldershot haven’t won either of their last two games but when you consider that those two games were against Notts County and Dagenham & Redbridge respectively then you can understand why. In fact, Aldershot were 2-0 up at home to Dagenham before capitulating and losing 3-2 so although their mental strength and composure may need some work, their actual ability is very good. I think Aldershot’s impressive win at Chesterfield last match will give them some good momentum given how strong Chesterfield are at home and the fact that Aldershot kept a clean sheet so they stand a good chance of winning tonight.
Visitors Bradford City are one of the biggest clubs in this division and are very capable but continually fail to impress. The reasoning behind this is that they concede too many goals. I mean, any side that has scored twenty-five goals in fifteen away games in League Two has to be considered capable at the very least but then consider that they’ve conceded twenty-six goals and you see where their problems lie. Bradford actually have a good away record; better than their home record, in fact. That factor does concern me a little as they’ve only lost five away games in League Two this season. However, this is a side that has only scored in two of their last five games so don’t be too taken in by them!
I’m expecting a good game between two good sides tonight with plenty of goals. However, I feel that Aldershot will expose Bradford’s defensive ineptitude tonight and hope Bradford’s little burst of form is turned on its head by a tough away game.
Verdict: Aldershot Town to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Notts County, Spain U”1, Brazil, Scotland U21, Northern Ireland U21, Germany U21.
Recommended bets:
Germany U21, Spain U21, Northern Ireland U21, and Scotland U21 at evens.
Brazil, Notts County, and Aldershot Town at 5/1
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Germany U21 vs Iceland U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
Luxembourg U21 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (6) 0-1
Spain U21 vs Liechtenstein U21 (10) -1.75 handicap
San Marino U21 vs Northern Ireland U21 (8) 0-2
Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21 (8) under 2.5 goals.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Rosario Central vs Arsenal de Sarandi (6) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors (8) 1-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Huracan (5) 1-1
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Stockport County (7)
Southampton vs Huddersfield Town (6)
English League Two:
Aldershot Town vs Bradford City (7)
Darlington vs Port Vale (6)
Rochdale vs Rotherham United (5)
Cheltenham Town vs Hereford United (5)
Notts County vs Macclesfield Town (8)
Torquay United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
French Ligue 2:
Arles vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
International Friendly:
Republic of Ireland vs Brazil (8) -1.75 handicap
Turkey U21 vs Slovakia U21 (4) 1-1
Portugal U21 vs Sweden U21 (7) 2-1
France U21 vs Croatia U21 (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Caersws vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!