Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the early-kick off between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory.
I wanted to back Victory in this derby but the odds are too short. In other words, I believe the bookies have been very clever here. Keep in mind that these two fierce rivals share a stadium so both teams are at home here, really.
Instead of the 1×2 market, I rather fancy unders here. True enough, Victory have been more attack-minded this season but their preference is still to win by attrition, which typically means sitting on leads convincingly, which they do rather well with Miranda and de Silva bossing the backline. They’re not going to take any risks here; their title hopes won’t change depending on the outcome of this game. They won’t want another setback after the last match though, or doubts start to creep in, you know? To be fair to Victory, they did batter Macarthur FC but didn’t take their chances and thus lost 1-0 – typical football, eh?
Victory control games better than City so I don’t see them being worried about this fixture. Fornaroli’s lack of game-time at the Asian Cup showed last match. He will get back to his best sooner or later, and would love to do so against his former club, but he either blows hot or cold and at the moment he’s cold. That means Victory lack a finisher, for which there is no solution until the Australian international gets back amongst the goals. Even Velupillay has been out of sorts lately, and he’s been a mainstay for them this season.
The rest of Victory’s setup is excellent though. Teague and Brimmer have been great in front of the back four, their full-backs don’t lose many duels, and their wide players (especially Arzani) is a handful. Machach is their own little Zidane that could decide this game in their favour but unless Fornaroli gets back in the swing of things, that’s pretty much their only avenue here, hence not fancying the ‘away’ win without draw no bet cover.
It is a fine time to face City though; let’s be frank. They somehow got smashed by Roar last weekend, which is baffling. I mean, I was shocked when they appointed Vidmar as manager but at least that showing finally proves once and for all that they need someone else, and I think they know that too, to be fair. Any other manager would have been sacked after that but Vidmar’s contract is to the end of the season unless my memory is cheating me; I daresay Kisnorbo will come back in then but time will tell.
For now, City are in a bit of disarray. Arslan (chief creator) has been slapped with a three-match ban (and it was recommended to the Australian FA that it should have been more), they’ve lost Behich, MacLaren’s head has gone (out of contract in the summer, constantly linked with other clubs), Leckie, Nabbout and Jakolis are only just back after a long time out so are nowhere near fit enough/close to their best. In other words, controlling games and scoring goals – well, it’s not happening for them.
City will improve, and I suppose I’d like to point out that most of the goals shipped against Roar last time out were the result of individual errors, most of which Young would have saved on another day so perhaps it was just a ‘bad day at the office’ for them. It’s hard to imagine that happening again, basically, and City have good enough personnel to rival Victory here, if not better them, especially now they’ve got Tilio back. Fernandez may debutise at left-back to solve another problem, and Talbot returns at right-back to solve yet another problem. In other words, City should be at least a bit better here.
I still fancy Victory but not enough to back that outcome. For my money, both teams need to prioritise not losing. Doing so would likely cost Vidmar his job at City, and Popovic’s boys showed in previous seasons that they’re a mentally frail group – they wouldn’t want three disappointing results in a row. Caution should be the name of the game here, and that makes me think it’ll be a low-scoring affair, especially with Arslan out and MacLaren having forgotten what a goal is for City, and Fornaroli nowhere near his best for Victory.
For me, derby or not, under 3 Asian goals at 83/100 makes sense.
Verdict: Under 3 Asian goals at 83/100.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Tirol
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach
Blau-Weiss Linz vs Salzburg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs RWDM
OH Leuven vs Sporting Charleroi
Antwerp vs KV Mechelen
Bulgarian A PFG:
Krumovgrad vs Botev Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia vs Beroe
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Kralove
Mlada Boleslav vs Banik Ostrava
Baumit Jablonec vs Ceske Budejovice
Pardubice vs Teplice
Bohemians 1905 vs Viktoria Plzen
English Premier League:
Brentford vs Liverpool
Burnley vs Arsenal
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK vs Inter Turku
Gnistan vs FC Lahti
IFK Mariehamn vs Ekenas IF
SJK vs KuPS
VPS vs AC Oulu
French Ligue 1:
Lille OSC vs Le Havre
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Mainz 05 vs Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin
Heidenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Schalke 04 vs Wehen Wiesbaden
Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kecskemeti TE vs Ujpest
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Varda SE
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Jerusalem vs MS Ashdod
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hadera
Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Genoa
Hellas Verona vs Juventus
Atalanta Bergamo vs Sassuolo
Italian Serie B:
Bari vs FeralpiSalo
Lecco vs Cosenza
Parma vs Pisa
Reggiana vs Ternana
Spezia vs Cittadella
Catanzaro vs Sudtirol
Palermo vs Como
Sampdoria vs Brescia
Dutch Eredivisie:
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ
SC Heerenveen vs Go Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City
Portuguese Liga 1:
Chaves vs Boavista
Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
FC Porto vs Estrela do Amadora
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Las Palmas
CA Osasuna vs Cadiz
Celta de Vigo vs Barcelona CF
Valencia CF vs Sevilla CF
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne-Sport vs Yverdon-Sport
St. Gallen vs FC Winterthur
Grasshopper Zurich vs FC Basel
Swiss Challenge League:
Baden vs FC Schaffhausen
AC Bellinzona vs FC Wil
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Istanbulspor
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor
Rizespor vs Fenerbahce
Enjoy your free betting tips!