Chile vs Northern Ireland
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Chile and Northern Ireland. Not only have Northern Ireland faced the lengthy trip to USA to play a game in gruelling heat against a superior Turkey side just four days ago but now they find themselves facing a daunting trip to one of the most inhospitable of terrains in the world – Chile. Home to the Atacama desert and a good portion of the Andes mountains, Chileans are no strangers to baking heat nor freezing temperatures. This game will be played in Concepcion, the second largest city in Chile so I expect a good level of support here tonight for their country’s send-off to the World Cup.
Chile warmed up for this game by hammering Africa’s Zambia 3-0. Zambia were missing players, admittedly, but the way that Chile demolished them was breathtaking. Chile have some fantastic players currently and that much is evident from watching their U20 players in the Toulon Tournament – you know, the players that didn’t make the team, and they were excellent! Chile were incisive and clinical last match with Jorge Valdivia pulling the strings in midfield and pacey hitman Alexis Sanchez looking on-fire for his country despite only playing forty-five minutes of the game. Marcelo Bielsa has done a superb job with Chile and has certainly made every nation’s trip to face Chile in the past twelve months a difficult one with Chile being arguably the most tenacious nation in South America. Chile have a great goalscoring record despite a young side and their determination knows no bounds so I really fancy Chile to demolish Northern Ireland tonight.
Northern Ireland put up a valiant show in Conneticut against Turkey four days ago but were undone by baking heat and a superior Turkey side. Northern Ireland fielded a second string for that game and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. Concepcion shouldn’t boast the same level of heat that USA did but they boast a similar advantage with their tenacious home side and intimidating atmosphere. Northern Ireland’s second string suffer from a lack of quality in every department, really. They’re well-organised, as you’d expect under Nigel Worthington, but they’re simply not good enough to play sides like this, especially not away from home. This is a whole new experience for the Northern Ireland boys and I expect them to learn a lot from it but ultimately you learn from mistakes and after this game has finished, I think it’ll be safe to call Northern Ireland’s trip here with a second string as “a mistake”.
There’s a massive quality difference between these two sides and I thoroughly expect it to show tonight. The only way this game would be fairer would be if it were played in Northern Ireland but as it’s in Chile I cannot do anything but massively favour the hosts. Altitude is generally not an advantage of the Chileans as most of their football (if not all) is played in the west of the country, on the coast. However, they more than make up for it with their tenacity and ability so expect a strong display from Chile tonight. Northern Ireland had a rough time against a good Turkey side a few days ago – they’re going to have an even harder time against a flambuoyant Chile side tonight, in my opinion. Northern Ireland should be tired from the trip and if they fall behind early on then they’ll find this a very tiring game indeed. Either way, a Chile win with a -1.75 handicap on the hosts at evens looks great value to me.
Verdict: Chile to beat the -1.75 handicap at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Corinthians vs Santos – home win at 11/10.
This game is a derby of sorts so be careful here – we know how these samba bastards love to get red cards for no reason whatsoever!
However, I’m going to call a Corinthians win today. I’ve been impressed with their efficient displays in Serie A this eason, which is largely due to them facing an early exit from the Copa Libertadores as everybody knows that the Brazilian sides focus far more on their continental trophy given chance. Corinthians have already won their two home games this season and have a good home record against Santos in recent years, winning three out of their last four home games in all competitions, drawing the other game. This may not be the biggest of Paulista derbies but it is up there so I expect motivation from both sides and plenty of cards as a result.
Santos have also done well in Serie A this season but I think their statistics are a little misleading. They don’t travel well, as a rule, but are unbeaten from their two away games already this season. However, if we look at their away games, it’s understandable as to why they have that record as Santos won their only away game against newly-promoted Atletico Goianense and drew at a potent Botafogo side, which was quite impressive, although Botafogo can’t defend so not massively impressive! Santos employ a similar our-defence-is-our-strength tactic as Corinthians do although generally with less success. Santos have the likes of wonderkid Neymar to bail them out of situations where they’re conceding too easily and I am fearful about the mayhem this youngster is capable of wreaking upon a strong Corinthians defence. Nonetheless, man for man, Santos aren’t as good as Corinthians, particularly not away from home, so I expect Corinthians to inflict Santos’ first defeat of their Serie A campaign at good odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 11/10.
Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense – home win at evens.
I don’t like betting against Fluminense because they’re a good side but I have little choice when there are such generous odds against them like they are today. Fluminense perform well away from home but simply don’t score goals. They don’t concede many but the fact that they’re just one of four sides (including Vitoria, Palmeiras, and Goias) that are yet to score an away goal in two games shoud indicate my point quite well. Fluminense rarely concede goals so this game for me is all about whether they concede or not. If they do, they should lose the game. Atletico Mineiro will give them a good game because they’re traditionally strong at home and have shown that this season with two wins from two home games, scoring five goals along the way. Mineiro have bagged six goals in their last two games so Fluminense’s defence will get a thorough test from their hosts tonight. Although I don’t pay too much attention to Fluminense’s form last season as it was just a disaster from start to finish and doesn’t reflect them accurately as a whole, it’s still worth noting that they lost here last season and the season before that so they’re certainly capable of losing again tonight.
There’s little between these two sides quality-wise but I have to favour a potent Atletico Mineiro over a defensive Fluminense side as one goal for the hosts should be enough to see them win the game. I’ll be concerned if Fluminense take the lead despite Atletico’s comfort with conceding goals as Fluminense are strong at the back but ultimately there is value on the home win tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Mineiro to win at evens.
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama – home win at evens.
Botafogo have rapidly developed into one of Serie A’s most potent sides and although their defence can be shocking at times, their attack is excellent and isn’t to be underestimated. They’ve already scored six times in two home games and should welcome back Abreu in attack after he was unavailable for their last match. The experienced Uruguayan is essential to their attack, in my opinion, and does more than enough up front to cause problems for opposing defences. German Herrera has been lethal in front of goal this season and youngster Caio is showing some good promise too with his goals tally but all three were missing during their trip to Cruzeiro last match hence their defeat. Whichever way you look at it, however Botafogo are scoring goals for fun and it’s taking a lot for sides to get anything against them here as a result as Santos discovered in a 3-3 draw.
I may not be confident about Botafogo’s shoddy defence but Vasco da Gama’s defence on the road makes Botafogo look competent in defence. They’ve leaked four goals in two away games, losing both of them, and conceded two at home to out-of-form Internacional last match, eventually stumbling into a 3-2 victory. Vasco da Gama aren’t finding their away trips particularly friendly considering it’s the first season back in Serie A but frankly that’s how it goes in Brazil – it’s dog-eat-dog here. Vasco da Gama are facing their third consecutive trip a strong home side and yet again they look ripe to be overcome by a very potent Botafogo.
Botafogo may concede in this game but they should be able to put two or three past a shoddy Vasco da Gama tonight. I expect plenty of goals in this defenceless game but there’s value on a Botafogo win whilst they’re at evens of above.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at evens.
Hvidovre vs Naestved – away win at 11/10.
I’ve had a lot of joy in Demark of late because bookies put better prices on games like this. Hvidovre need the points and Naestved don’t, hence the good odds, but the gulf in ability is massive in this division and today is a fine example of that. Hvidovre are in trouble because their home form is shocking. They’ve won once in thirteen home games this season, losing six times along the way. They average scoring less than a goal per home game, which is why they struggle so much as they don’t concede many. Hvidovre have shown no particular desire to get away from the drop zone with just one win in their eleven games played since the winter break and I can’t see that changing today.
Naestved have proven that meaningless games are their forté with three consecutive wins as they’ve been released from their shell now seemingly! They’ve won two games away from home and one at home during that run and have notched up eight goals during that run despite having nothing left to play for this season. Naestved have already won six out of thirteen away games this season and are sound defensively so a solitary goal should really be enough for them to win this one today. They’ve beaten two sides lately that needed the points when they didn’t so motivation isn’t an issue for them with momentum so strong in their camp currently. Ultimately, I expect Naestved to put in a professional display and overcome yet more impotent and poor opponents although at surprisingly generous odds.
Verdict: Naestved to win at 11/10.
El Nacional Quito vs Liga de Quito – lay Liga de Quito at 4/6.
I normally wouldn’t touch a lay at 4/6 but this looks too good to be true. This is a derby, first of all. It’s not the main derby in Quito nowadays but a derby it remains nonetheless. El Nacional don’t enjoy winning games at home anymore but they don’t enjoy losing them either, hence five draws in seven home games with just one win and one defeat adding to that list. They tend to score over a goal per home game on average and concede just less than a goal per home game on average so it’s easy to see why they draw so many games with no particular differential on their goals scored/conceded list. To top that off, Liga de Quito have drawn five out of seven away games already this season because they don’t score many away from home – just six goals in seven games, in fact. Liga de Quito have only won two away games in Primera A this season and have won just once in their last four visits to El Nacional so I can’t fathom why there are decent odds available on laying the visitors, particularly with this season’s record in mind. There’s rarely many goals in games between these two sides so under 2.5 goals looks likely and it may even be worth a cheeky bet on the outright draw but ultimately laying Liga de Quito at 4/6 should be good value as El Nacional should be hitting 8/13 on the lay stakes for me given the difficulty that all sides have winning here against them.
Verdict: Lay Liga de Quito at 4/6.
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Cuenca – away win at 6/4.
You’ll rarely see me back Deportivo Cuenca away from home but that in itself should hopefully indicate to you how badly Espoli Cayambe are playing currently. Espoli have already lost five out of seven home games in the Primera A this season, which is an unthinkable record in Ecuador of all places, hence their problems. They’ve leaked an average of nearly two goals per home game, which is the worst record in the division, and average scoring a single goal per home game so it’s easy to see why they’re struggling. They’ve lost their last four home games consecutively without scoring a goal in any of them despite hosting two newly-promoted sides – Universidad Catolica and Independiente – so morale is low and potency is non-existant for the hosts tonight. Deportivo Cuenca just don’t travel well; that’s my big concern here. They never have travelled well. They’ve won just once on the road all season despite only losing twice because they don’t score goals away from home. However, they navigated their way to victory here last year and I’m confident that they can do the same again tonight given the ineptitude of their hosts. It should only take one goal for Deportivo Cuenca to win this game and at 6/4 to win the game with that in mind, they have to be worth a bet as they’re the superior of these two sides by some distance. Let’s just hope that Primera A leading goalscorer Luis Escalada does the job for Deportivo tonight!
Verdict: Deportivo Cuenca to win at 6/4.
Rotherham United vs Dagenham & Redbridge – Rotherham United to win at 6/4.
What can anyone write about such finals? This game is at Wembley, first and foremost, so there is no home advantage. Rotherham have beaten Dagenham twice already this season and are the better of the two sides for my money. Dagenham made it to the play-offs thanks to a late surge, not consistency throughout the season whereas Rotherham were consistent throughout the season. Le Fondre for Rotherham is on top form and is out to impress any scouts as he reportedly wants to move on. Dagenham don’t travel well as it is, let alone to a venue like Wembley. I can’t really comment on a lot more here – I just believe Rotherham are the better side and are value at 6/4. In finals like this, anything can happen, so do approach with caution, but there should be value in the Yorkshire club gaining promotion by winning this game today.
Verdict: Rotherham United to win at 6/4.
KPV Kokkola vs MP Mikkeli – lay KPV Kokkola at 6/5.
I’m taking a real chance with this one today because KPV Kokkola are twice the side that newly-promoted MP Mikkeli are but I’m basing it on two things; fatigue and momentum. KPV played Inter Turku a few days ago in the Suomen Cup in a game that went to extra time and ultimately resulted in KPV going out to ten-man Inter Turku. That in itself is a tiring excursion and a demoralising one at the end of it with the next round within arm’s reach for KPV. Instead, they’ll have to focus on promotion from the Ykkonen again this season and they’ve got a good chance to do that this year, to be fair. However, they’re going to be very tired for this game and they’re facing an MP Mikkeli side that bring some momentum into this game with two consecutive Ykkonen games without defeat. MP lost in the Suomen Cup mid-week too but in a more comprehensive 2-0 defeat at home against KuPS Kuopio – nothing they wouldn’t have expected anyway as avoiding the drop is their main goal this year. They’ve won at Hameenlinna and drawn at home to PS Kemi Kings lately though without conceding a goal in either game so MP are getting stronger at the back and if they can hold PS Kemi Kings then they can hold most sides. They had to ride their luck, of course, but luck is an integral part of football as it is so credit to MP Mikkeli for their results. I expect those results to mean that MP gives KPV a tough game today. Hopefully Murphy’s Law won’t apply here where KPV score after thirty seconds but there should be value in laying the weary hosts against their driven visitors today at 6/4.
Verdict: Lay KPV Kokkola at 6/5.
Japan vs England – both sides to score at 11/10.
Japan were poor against bitter rivals South Korea in their last friendly and will no doubt put up a better show in this friendly as a result. They’ve impressed me a lot over the past twelve months and then have let me down lately, which is a bit bizarre. They’re a very capable side, much better than they used to be, in my opinion, as J-League football continues to expand their style. The likes of Honda are proving great success stories in Europe and Japan are benefiting as a result. They’re a capable and well-organised side with plenty of pace and that caused problems for England against Mexico so it should cause problems today, particularly on neutral ground here in Austria. England won 3-1 against Mexico but the result flattered England as two goals came from Mexico consistently pondering what the term “defending from corners” actually means. England were actually sub-par, in my opinion, but always manage to get a goal somewhere along the line. England were much better in the second-half with terrifying pace down the right from the likes of Lennon and Mexico found it hard to deal with, which is something I’m expecting to see again today against Japan. England were susceptible in defence however and conceded against Mexico. They probably should have conceded again, in fact, but Mexico were quite wasteful. The Japanese will take their chances if they get them and I do expect them to have chances against an uncertain England defence so taking both sides to score on neutral territory at 11/10 looks a good bet for me today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Bodo Glimt vs Bryne – home win at 4/7.
There’s not much I can say here that the odds don’t already reflect other that Bodo Glimt should be shorter odds to win this game. They’re an Eliteserien side and it’s been evident ever since they got relegated last season. Their home form in the north of Norway is terrific with five wins from five home games, averaging scoring over three goals per home game whilst having conceded just once during that run. Bryne don’t travel well as three defeats in five away games indicates all too well and with an average of nearly two goals conceded per away game, it’s hard to see that changing today. Hell, it may even be worth handicapping Bodo Glimt today because I expect them to really lay into Bryne today. I’d have priced this at 1/3 and I think it would be at those odds if it was played in the Eliteserien so there should be value on the home win here today.
Verdict: Bodo Glimt to win at 4/7.
Deportivo Tachira vs Caracas – lay Deportivo Tachira at 5/6.
I’m not sure why Tachira are so short against Caracas for this game. Caracas are marginally the better side but there’s little in it. These two sides rarely beat each other at either ground but Caracas won the first leg of this title-deciding tie 1-0 so only need a draw here to win the Primera Division proper. Caracas rarely lose on the road due to their solid defence and have only lost here on one of their last five visits so again, I’m not sure why Tachira are so short for this game. Tachira are very good at home but the odds on laying them against a bogey side like Caracas looks a good bet to me tonight.
Incidentally, none of the players for either side (to my knowledge) were in the squad that was called up for Venezuela to play against Canada last night in Merida.
Verdict: Lay Deportivo Tachira at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Fredericia, Emelec Guayaquil, FC Honka Espoo, RoPS Rovaniemi, Keflavik, Mexico, Chile, Banga Gargzdai, Suduva Marijampole, Vetra Vilnius, Bodo Glimt,
Recommended bets:
Chile, Mexico, Corinthians, and Emelec Guayaquil at 6/1.
FC Honka Espoo, RoPS Rovaniemi, Keflavik, and Bodo Glimt at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U17 Championship Final:
England U17 vs Spain U17 (6) both sides to score
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Georgia U21 vs Switzerland U21 (6) 0-2
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Santos (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Guarani vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-2
Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense (6) 1-0
Internacional vs Atletico Paranaense (6) 2-0
Ceara vs Cruzeiro (5) 0-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Goias (6) under 2.5 goals
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama (7) over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Vestjaelland vs Lyngby (5)
Hvidovre vs Naestved (7)
Roskilde vs Thisted (5) under 2.5 goals
Kolding vs Frem (7)
Skive vs Fredericia (8) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
El Nacional Quito vs Liga de Quito (7) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Manta vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 0-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Independiente (5) 1-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 0-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs Macara Ambato (7) over 2.5 goals
English League Two Play-Off Final:
Rotherham United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs TPS Turku (5) 0-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Tampere United (6) 1-1
FC Honka Espoo vs VPS Vaasa (9) 3-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV Kokkola vs MP Mikkeli (5)
Viikingit Helsinki vs TPV Tampere (7) under 2.5 goals
RoPS Rovaniemi vs FC Hameenlinna (9) under 2.5 goals
PS Kemi Kings vs KooTeePee Kotka (5) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Breidablik Kopavogur (5) over 2.5 goals
Keflavik vs Selfoss (9) 2-0
International Friendlies:
Japan vs England (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score (played in Austria)
Nigeria vs Colombia (6) 1-2 (played in England)
Paraguay vs Ivory Coast (6) 1-1 (played in France)
Mexico vs Gambia (7) 2-0 (played in Germany)
Belarus vs South Korea (6) 1-1 (played in Austria)
Chile vs Northern Ireland (9) -1.75 handicap
Tunisia vs France (6) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Albinoleffe (6)
Crotone vs Ascoli (7)
Padova vs Brescia (6)
Torino vs Cittadella (6)
Modena vs Gallipoli (6)
Empoli vs Grosseto (6) over 2.5 goals
Ancona vs Mantova (4)
Lecce vs Sassuolo (6)
Frosinone vs Triestina (5)
Salernitana vs Vicenza (7)
Piacenza vs Cesena (7)
Latvian Virsliga:
Jelgava vs Blazma Rezekne (6) 0-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Banga Gargzdai (7) 0-2
Mazeikiai vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 0-2
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Siauliai (6) 1-1
Klaipeda vs Vetra Vilnius (7) 1-2
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Bodo Glimt vs Bryne (8) over 2.5 goals
Lyn Oslo vs Follo (6)
Strommen vs Alta (4)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Moss (5)
Sandnes Ulf vs Tromsdalen (4) over 2.5 goals
Nybergsund vs Ranheim (5)
Slovenian Prga Liga Promotion/Relegation Play-Off:
Triglav vs Interblock Ljubljana (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Girona vs Recreativo de Huelva (7)
Salamanca vs Real Union Club de Irun (5) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Cadiz (4)
Real Murcia vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Numancia vs Castellon (7) under 2.5 goals
Hercules Alicante vs Albacete (7) under 2.5 goals
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Tachira vs Caracas (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!