Cameroon vs Netherlands
FreeToday’s featured game is the redundant World Cup encounter between Cameroon and Netherlands. Cameroon are already out of this competition and Netherlands are already through so I don’t see too many goals or too much passion in this one. However, there’s still a big gap in quality and that’s what interests me here today.
I feel quite sorry for Cameroon, as it happens. They’ve exceeded my expectations of them in this tournament, based on their performances, and have still gone out. They were poor in their opening game against Japan and Japan’s tactics worked superbly well as a result. However, they played really well against Denmark in their last game and were unlucky not to get anything. Or were they not unlucky? Did they deserve what they got because they couldn’t put the ball in the net? It may sound harsh, but I certainly think so. The usually compact Danish defence was ripped apart more often than not and Cameroon continually failed to capitalise on that. How much more can you assist a side to win a game than by being poor in defence? Cameroon simply don’t take their chances and thus their weakness in defence is always evident because they don’t counter the goals scored against them by scoring themselves. They’ve got some good players in there and I’ve been particularly impressed with both Emana and Assou-Ekotto but as a team, they’re not good enough to get something off Netherlands today.
It’s interesting how well the Dutch have done despite not playing particularly well. They’ve taken on a style made popular by their fierce rivals Germany by winning games in ugly fashion. It’s remarkable that they’ve not conceded yet too, a record which I think flatters them massively as their manager prefers to focus on them keeping the ball rather than training his side to defend effectively. However, they remain an extremely potent threat in front of goal, hence their ability to win these games so hats off to the Dutch! They play attractive football when given chance and they’re facing the weakest defence in the group so they have an opportune moment to awaken the fear in their potential future opponents in the next round by winning this game in dominant fashion so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a well-oiled display from the Dutch today.
I was sorely tempted to back the Dutch with -1.75 goal handicap today at very generous odds but decided not to as they’ve not scored enough goals, they’re dodgy at the back, they don’t have many reasons to make the effort to win by two or more here, and they may field a weakened line-up. I don’t doubt for one second that the Dutch are capable of breaking the handicap but the cons outweigh the pros here so I’ll give it a miss. However, the odds on Netherlands to beat what I can only describe as an inferior side at 4/5 is laughable – they shouldn’t be longer than 1/2 to win this one today with whatever side they field! With that in mind, backing a Dutch win here looks good value to me.
Verdict: Netherlands to win at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Denmark vs Japan – both sides to score at 4/5.
To be honest, I’d prefer longer odds for this selection as neither side can be described as “prolific”. However, I do feel there’s value in the selection today. Why?
Well, ordinarily, I’d have been tempted to back Denmark to keep a clean sheet here. However, the manner in which they were ripped apart by Cameroon last match and the fact that Kjaer misses the game through suspension is enough to convince me that Denmark are capable of conceding here. On a similar note, Denmark’s display against Cameroon also convinced me of their capability to score goals due to their pace down the flanks finally being effective. The greed of Bendtner needs to be contained because he’s not playing in the likes of Tomasson when that is the better choice but overall, the Danes have improved a little since their pre-World Cup friendlies and now look capable of causing a few problems.
Japan will be as organised and difficult to beat as ever in this game but the underlying factor here is that both sides need something from this game to go through. Japan are second in the group on goal difference, admittedly, but they can’t play for a draw here because that’s suicidal as a football team – you’ll end up losing the game. Japan have the capacity to launch lethal counter-attacks with the usually-defensive Danes forced to come at the Japanese, which creates spaces at the back for the Japanese to exploit. Japan have looked good going forwards and only lack a little luck in the finishing department so I think they’ll have their chances to score here too, particularly with the ever-present Honda a potent threat from midfield.
Although both sides are unquestionably defensive sides, I doubt we’ll see a defensive game here. Denmark have to attack and Japan can counter-attack so we may even see a surprise over 2.5 goals here. However, I’ll stick with my preferred bet of both sides scoring as realistically, both sides need to do so and should have the necessary opportunities to do so.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Paraguay vs New Zealand – Paraguay to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/5.
I’ve stuck up for New Zealand in this tournament when everyone had written them off and they’ve done me proud. However, today’s the day that their world comes crashing down, in my opinion. Why?
Well, they’re facing the only side in the group with the necessary incision, creativity, and finesse to do damage to them. New Zealand have performed brilliant tactically in this group and frustrated the hell out of sides but manager Herbert knows that to create further history, they have to attack here. A draw is unlikely to be enough for them so I feel that at somepoint in this game, New Zealand will be forced into attacking Paraguay, which will be a nightmare. New Zealand do have threats in attack but their rigid defensive shape should be torn apart by whatever potent attack that the Paraguayans will inevitably field. A win here for Paraguay sees them win the group irrespective of what the other sides do so I think they’ll go for it. They’re a positive side and press high up the field, which will be difficult for New Zealand to deal with. Paraguay have the individuals to unlock stubborn defences though, far moreso than both Italy and Slovakia, so I envision the Paraguayans having a lot of joy here today. Maybe they will field a few second-string players but from what I’ve seen, they’re just as good. Indeed, they may even “risk” Cardozo in attack – oh no! I actually rate this guy as one of the best in Europe at the moment and I hope he gets his chance to shine because he’s got so much ability a an out-and-out striker that it’s unreal.
Either way, Paraguay really should be able to win this one today. They’ve got enough to break through the New Zealand defence and even score one or two more. I wouldn’t touch the HT/FT markets as some of you did the other day for Argentina vs Greece for the same reasons that I wouldn’t have done so in that game – the defensive side will not want to be losing at half-time. In the second-half, they have to go for it, so if I did venture near a market then it’d be Draw/Paraguay, just as food for thought. However, my main bet on this game today is Paraguay to win by two goals or more at generous odds of 6/5 as they should realistically win this game 2-0 or 3-0.
Verdict: Paraguay to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/5.
Slovakia vs Italy – lay Italy at 13/10.
As much as I’ve gone with New Zealand in this tournament, I’ve gone against Italy in this tournament and each has paid huge dividends. Italy are not what they were. I don’t care what the media says or what Lippi says or how many World Cups they’ve won – they don’t have enough ability as a unit to beat sides on a consistent basis. They don’t score enough goals, they don’t create enough chances, and they don’t do enough with the ball as a result. Their one predominant strength is being strong in their air at the back and that’s where they’ve conceded both of their two goals conceded thus far in this tournament from! Italy are too old, too slow, and too lacking in the magical Andrea Pirlo department to threaten or concerns sides like Slovakia today, in my humble opinion, and whilst I do not doubt that their individual talent should scare any side, they don’t look intimidating as a unit.
Slovakia have one massive problem – creating and scoring chances. The ever-increasing dependancy on Marek Hamsik in the middle is doing damage to Slovakia creatively, hence Weiss’ decision to field his son in their last game because they’re the only two players that make something happen. Slovakia have too many forwards of similar styles – all pace and tenacity, little finesse, movement, or even aerial ability. They need to field Holosko in a 4-4-2 to trouble Italy today or at least put Sestak in attack with Vittek because Vittek looks isolated far too often. However, I still don’t envision the Italians winning this one because Slovakia’s main strength is defence. It took Paraguay, the most creative side in the group, a lot of effort to break through their defence twice and for that reason alone, I doubt that Italy can do so.
If Italy take the lead in this game then I will be concerned because Slovakia don’t have enough going forwards. However, I have so little faith in the Italians scoring that I cannot fathom how they’ve gotten such short odds to win this one other than on their name alone. They’ve scored two goals in the tournament thus far – one from bad goalkeeping and one from a dubious penalty – not convincing, is it? Let’s not forget that a draw most likely sees Italy go through here too so I don’t think they’ll be distraught at drawing this one – it’s Slovakia who need to win here so hopefully they’ll get an early goal and sit on it. Either way, the only value in this game is laying Italy in my opinion.
As a side-note, given how impotent the two sides above are in front of goal, considering backing under 1.5 goals at 7/4 and Italy to score no more than once at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Italy at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Netherlands.
Recommended bets:
Paraguay and Netherlands at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Paraguay vs New Zealand (7) 2-0
Slovakia vs Italy (6) 0-0
Denmark vs Japan (5) 1-1
Cameroon vs Netherlands (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Gombak United (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!