Today’s featured game is the Ukrainian Premier League encounter between heavyweights Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk and newly-promoted Volyn Lutsk. The hosts are a top four side and have been for some time, although I think it’s fair to say that they’re still some way behind Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev. Visitors Volyn Lutsk are new to this division, having earned promotion last season, and face something of a baptism of fire today having exprienced an extremely demoralising opening day defeat.
You will most likely never see me back Dnipro again on the handicap because I’ve never seen a side win by one goal as often as Dnipro do. It’s like they actually dislike scoring goals sometimes! They play very efficient and highly uninteresting football but credit given where it’s due – the football style is effective. They’re generally a strong and reliable side when playing at home although not scoring enough goals is a big flaw of theirs, something I feel is reflected well in the pricing of the handicap today. Atypically, Ukrainian Premier League games are so short that you wouldn’t believe it i.e. Dnipro are 1/5 to win this game. They’re not good enough to earn those odds! However, that’s the way that the bookies price sides in Ukraine so that’s why I find it strange that they’ve priced the handicap so long today, although I can understand it because Dnipro really don’t score many at all.
The reason for my confidence behind Dnipro beating the handicap is their opponents, Volyn Lutsk, to be blunt. Any side that can enter this division and lose 4-0 at home to one of the most impotent sides in the division (Vorskla Poltava) have serious issues. They’d made a few good acquisitions in summer, Volyn, but nothing worked whatsoever during their opening day game and now they have the arduous task of picking themselves up in Dnepropetrovsk to chase shadows for ninety minutes as the hosts keep the ball so well. It’s not an appealing thought for the visitors, I’m quite sure, and I think they’re going to struggle massively today as a result.
Do approach with caution because Dnipro love their 1-0 wins but I feel Volyn are bad enough to give them more so the handicap at 3/4 could be good value today.
Verdict: Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 3/4.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Austria vs England – England to win at 3/5.
As much as I respect the Austrian youth sides (which are rapidly improving at a rate you wouldn’t believe!), the pricing is wrong for England on this game. England’s first team may have their faults but their youth teams are impeccable. Only a handful of players were refused permission to play in this tournament due to club committments so England have still brought a strong squad to France. I thoroughly expect Austria to give England a good game because they’re a good side but England should never be as long as 3/5 to win this game, neutral venue or not. England should be no longer than 1/2 so there should be some value here today.
Verdict: England to win at 3/5.
Avai vs Palmeiras – home win at 13/10.
We all know how potent and impressive Avai are at home. They average scoring two goals per home game and have only lost once in their four home games, winning twice along the way. They’re capable of scoring against anyone in this division, especially at home, which makes them a very dangerous opponent. Palmeiras are the bigger side but their problems are well-documented at the moment and whereas their united front approach worked well at the start of their Serie A campaign, they’re beginning to struggle a little now. They’ve won just once in four games and have only scored once during three away games this season, drawing twice and losing once. All that has saved Palmeiras on the road is their defensive ability, which will certainly be put to the test tonight by a potent Avai side. Avai themselves aren’t exactly on fire at the moment but an impressive win at Sao Paulo a few days ago will have boosted morale to no end so I do fancy them to bring momentum into this game and do damage tonight. This should be a close game but there looks to be value on the home win for Avai today.
Verdict: Avai to win at 13/10.
Internacional vs Ceara – lay Internacional at 31/20.
Absolutely baffling! How on earth are Internacional 2/5 to win this game?! I’ve not rated Internacional’s attack since Pato left anyway but this will be an even more stern test than usual! Little Ceara are still unbeaten in Serie A following promotion because of their rock-solid defence and whereas I’ll admit that they’re certainly stronger at home than they are away, the fact remains that they just don’t concede goals. Only Corinthians can match Ceara’s unbeaten record so do give the minnows the respect that they deserve. Internacional have been far from convincing at home this season because of their fairly impotent attack and although I rate their midfield a lot, I just cannot see a way through a solid Ceara defence for the hosts today. I shouldn’t be able to lay an Internacional side that cannot penetrate defences effectively and consistently at such long odds but I’ll happily do so today.
Verdict: Lay Internacional at 31/20.
Santos vs Fluminense – home win at 7/10.
I have a lot of respect for Fluminense and the massive spirit that the side possesses, which is arguably more than any other Serie A side, in my opinion. They’re a good side to boot and will always make life uncomfortable for their opponents. However, I feel they’re going to be out of their depth tonight and the odds don’t reflect it as they should. Santos are finally back as a Serie A side that boasts consistency, particularly at home, something that they massively lacked last season. They boast a frighteningly good attack and it shows, especially so at home where they’ve won twice and drawn once this season whilst scoring eight times and conceding just twice. Defeat at Palmeiras a few days ago wasn’t particularly welcome but Santos are a very different side at home so I still have a lot of faith in them here. Fluminense’s only real weakness for me is their inability to score enough goals away from home. Their defence is rock-solid but in the Brazilian Serie A, it only takes a magic moment to unlock a solid defence and then a side like Fluminense will lose because they don’t have enough potency. They exemplified it at home to Gremio Prudente a few days ago by drawing 1-1 but the best example was their 1-0 defeat at Corinthians, which they could easily have drawn if someone would have put the ball in the net for them. It’s that problem that I think will cost them today and with Santos having won this fixture for two seasons running, I can’t quite fathom why Santos are longer than 1/2 to win this game.
Verdict: Santos to win at 7/10.
Usti nad Labem vs Mlada Boleslav – both teams to score at evens.
Mlada Boleslav can score and concede against anyone quite easily. They were the top goalscoring side in the Gambrinus Liga last season away from home and yet still finished in the bottom half of the table. They can score but simply cannot defence, which is naturally a recipe for disaster. Usti nad Labem are not a good side; they’re new to the division and I expect them to go straight back down, in all honesty. However, it’s the opening day of the season for them and they’ll be motivated as anything to get a result here. I don’t know if they will or not but what I’ll say on that matter is that Mlada are bad enough defensively to give them the opportunity to do so. With the above in mind, I think taking both sides to score is a good value bet today.
Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.
Nordsjaelland vs Silkeborg – home win at 21/20.
Approach with caution because it’s the opening day of the season but there should be some value here. Nordsjaelland have looked good in their friendlies and have scored plenty of goals along the way too. They’re a good side but lack consistency, something which played a major part in their disappointing Supgerligaen campaign last season. However, don’t let that deceive you; they are a good side, much moreso than Silkeborg, in my opinion. Silkeborg rode a momentum wave last season following promotion but became exhausted mid-season and lost the vast majority of their games after that, very nearly getting relegated in fact. They’re a stubborn side, particularly away from home, but they’re simply not a good side. They’re not great in front of goal and whereas their defence doesn’t leak many, it does tend to leak the necessary amount for them to be beaten with the right application. With that in mind, I’m happy to take the home win today, although again – don’t wade into this one blindly!
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 21/20.
IFK Mariehamn vs Inter Turku – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I have some very stupid reasoning for this game but in line with Veikkausliiga’s unwritten rules, it’s got to be succesful. Both of these sides are low-scoring and tend to not concede many, despite the statistics this year showing otherwise. It’s been a very bizarre Veikkausliiga season, really. Normally, this game would have under 2.5 goals written all over it but the fact is that both sides cannot stop scoring and conceding goals at the moment, no matter who they play. You’re a braver man than I am if you back a winner of this game but over 2.5 goals should be a mere formality at the moment, particularly as it would be in line with some other very bizarre Veikkausliiga results of late!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Viikingit Helsinki vs RoPS Rovaniemi – away win at 9/5.
This is my favourite bet of the day although I didn’t have the balls to make it my title game. I rate Viikingit Helsinki very highly and they’re definitely one of the top three sides in the Ykkonen. However, they’ve never faced a side like RoPS Rovaniemi before i.e. a side that is simply a lot better than they are. RoPS haven’t always convinced on the road this season but despite that, they’re still unbeaten in five away games, winning three times along the way. RoPS aren’t as potent on the road as they are at home but they’re still a fantastic side by Ykkonen standards and should never be at such long odds to win this game. Ykkonen football tends to be organised and low-scoring wins for the better sides, which is what Viikingit do very well, which is also why newly-promoted FC Espoo were so effective for a while. RoPS don’t do that though – they play flambuoyant attacking football and tend to win most of their games because sides in this division (barring PoPa Pori) don’t score more than two in a game at the best of times! RoPS can easily score four against the vast majority of opponents in this division and although that’s an unlikely prospect against a good Viikingit side today, it still wouldn’t surprise me if it happened. I think the bookies have made a mess of the pricing here – I’d expect both sides to be similarly priced, not laughably good odds of RoPS at nearly 2/1! I’m not saying this is a banker but with RoPS clear superiority and potency and momentum, you have to feel that the away win here is worth a shot at very generous odds indeed.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at 9/5.
Hameenlinna vs PK-35 Helsinki – away win at 13/10.
Two away wins in the Ykkonen in one day? No chance!
However, this has to be worth a shot. Hameenlinna have fallen into their usual trap of not scoring goals so even their strong defence can’t bail them out. Only under-achieving PS Kemi Kings and newly-promoted MP Mikkeli have scored less home goals in the Ykkonen than Hameenlinna this season so the hosts still have the same problems as last season. Along with MP Mikkeli, they’re yet to win a home game in six attempts, losing three times and drawing three times. They’ve lost two consecutive games now and this sight is becoming all too familiar for Hameenlinna fans – no goals = no wins. They’re not a side to be underestimated, incidentally, because on their day they can defend with the best of them in this division. However, morale is low and potency is virtually non-existant so it’s hard to see the hosts doing anything today. PK-35’s persistent squad rotation appears to be paying off with three consecutive wins and an impressive eight goals scored along the way, let alone the three clean sheets that they’ve kept. They’ve won three out of five on the road this season, which is virtually unheard of in the Ykkonen! They’ve got everything going for them and they’re scoring goals for fun. With that in mind, it could be a good value bet to back the away win today against their impotent hosts although caution is always recommended because the Ykkonen is not welcoming for away wins and many a punter has been burned by blundering into this division with no caution whatsoever. However, there’s enough there to convince me to back the away win today.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 13/10.
Keflavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur – home win at 5/4.
Breidablik suffered the embarrassment of losing in Scotland mid-week against Motherwell and have one shot to turn it around in a few days time to keep their European dream alive. They’ll be a little demoralised from the result and although it’s quite a short trip to make, I expect tiredness in the Kopavogur camp – they’re not used to playing two games in such a short period of time. I think they may rest a few faces against Keflavik today, which could be fatal. Keflavik are the better of these two sides and whereas their form of late hasn’t been particularly flattering, they’re still a very good side. They don’t score enough goals but then again, nor do Breidablik. I expect a low-scoring game here but with no committments elsewhere and a full squad to choose from, I have to favour the superior hosts to win this one today at generous odds of 5/4.
Verdict: Keflavik to win at 5/4.
Dundalk vs St.Patrick’s Athletic – away win at evens.
Dundalk arae having a nightmare with European football at the moment. Not only were they put to the sword by CS Grevenmacher of Luxembourg and only just managed to qualify but they were utterly destroyed in Bulgaria mid-week by Levski Sofia, who ran out 6-0. Dundalk’s limited squad will not only be demoralised but tired too, particularly after chasing shadows for the majority of that game. They then have to come home to Ireland to take on one of the best sides in the country with the knowledge that they’re facing Levski again next week. Their schedule has been utterly exhausting of late and their results reflect that too. St Pat’s aren’t great on the road but they’ve got enough ability to win this one today. They’re one of the most potent sides in the division and do well on the road because they rarely concede. They’ve won two out of their last three games and have scored seven times during that run so they’ve got good enough momentum to take the game to Dundalk today. Ordinarily, I’d expect a close game here but to be honest, I think St. Pat’s might just run away with it because of Dundalk’s fatigue and the visitors’ momentum. Dundalk have failed to score against St.Pat’s in their last eight attempts, four of which were at home. They’ve lost two of those home games and drawn the other two but as I can’t see the hosts keeping their rampant visitors out today, the away win at evens looks good value.
Verdict: St.Patrick’s Athletic to win at evens.
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs DAC Dunajska Streda – both sides to score at 5/4.
Dukla have endured a 3-0 hammering in Georgia over the past few days against Zestaponi and have the gruelling, uphill task of turning it around at home in a few days time. Will they manage it? Very unlikely. However, it’s been five years since they were in European football so they’re not going to sit back and let it just fall away. With that in mind, I expect Dukla to rest players today for that game. They’re not used to playing football after such long trips either so those who do play should be tired. Whereas I don’t rate opponents DAC whatsoever, I think it’s fair to say that they’ve got a chance of doing some damage today against a demoralised, tired, and under-strength host. I’m not bold enough to lay the hosts because DAC are quite poor but I think taking both sides to score at 5/4 looks an interesting bet today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/4.
Elfsborg Boras vs Orebro – lay Elfsborg Boras at 21/2o.
Orebro have done well in the Allsvenskan this season by beating very hard to score against. Whereas Elfsborg are arguably the most potent side in the division, particularly when in Boras, it’s hard to see them giving 100% today or playing a full side after their dubious 2-1 win at home against Moldova’s Iskra-Stal mid-week in European football and with the trip to Moldova in a few days time looming large. I think Elfsborg will rest players here whereas Orebro have no other committments so they’ll try and get at least a draw here and they’re frankly good enough defensively to get it too. Approach with caution because Elfsborg are the better side but I think there’s value in laying the hosts today.
Verdict: Lay Elfsborg Boras at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Spain U19, England U19, Austria Vienna, Corinthians, Viking Stavanger, Sogndal, Lokomotiv Moscow, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Shakhtar Donetsk.
Recommended bets:
England U19 and Spain U19 at nearly 2/1 – can’t believe how generous that is!
Keflavik, Viking Stavanger, and Nordsjaelland at 5/1.
Corinthians, Avai, and Santos at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European U19 Championship:
Croatia vs Spain (7) 0-2
Italy vs Portugal (5) 0-0
Austria vs England (8) 1-3
France vs Netherlands (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Rapid Vienna (6) 1-2
Austria Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (8) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Atletico Mineiro (8) 2-0
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo (5) 0-1
Avai vs Palmeiras (6) 2-1
Internacional vs Ceara (5) 0-0
Cruzeiro vs Goias (6) 1-0
Santos vs Fluminense (7) over 2.5 goals
Botafogo vs Guarani (5) over 2.5 goals
Gremio Prudente vs Gremio (5) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Huila vs America de Cali (6) 2-1
Boyaca Chico vs Cortulua (6) 1-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Envigado (5) 0-0
Deportes Quindio vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 1-1
Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Usti nad Labem vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 1-1
Marila Pribram vs Banik Ostrava (4) 1-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc (5) 1-0
Ceske Budejovice vs Slovan Liberec (6) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Midtylland (6) 1-2
Randers vs Brondby (5) 1-1
Nordsjaelland vs Silkeborg (7) 2-1
SonderjyskE vs FC Copenhagen (7) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
El Nacional Quito vs Liga de Quito (7) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Espoli Cayambe vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 0-1
FinnishVeikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn vs Inter Turku (6) over 2.5 goals
MyPa Anjalankoski vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 2-1
TPS Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV Kokkola vs PoPa Pori (5)
MP Mikkeli vs OPS Oulu (7)
Viikingit Helsinki vs RoPS Rovaniemi (7) over 2.5 goals
Hameenlinna vs PK-35 Helsinki (6) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Valur Reykjavik (6) 2-2
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs KR Reykjavik (5) 1-1
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Selfoss (6) over 2.5 goals
Keflavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (7) 2-0
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 0-1
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers (5) 0-0
Japanese J-League:
Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare (5) under 2.5 goals
Gamba Osaka vs Urawa Red Diamonds (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F.Marinos (6) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Aalesund (6) over 2.5 goals
Brann Bergen vs Stabaek (5) 2-2
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund (6) 2-1
Viking Stavanger vs Honefoss (8) 2-0
Molde vs Sandefjord (6) under 2.5 goals
Rosenborg BK vs Odd Grenland Skien (7) under 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Fredrikstad vs Bryne (6) over 2.5 goals
Bodo Glimt vs Tromsdalen (7) at least one red card in this game
Strommen vs Sarpsborg 08 (6)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Alta (5)
Nybergsund vs Sandnes Ulf (4)
Sogndal vs Follo (8)
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6) 1-0
Terek Grozny vs Amkar Perm (7) 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Beijing Guoan (5) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs DAC Dunajska Streda (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-1
Maribor vs Triglav (7) 2-1
Gorica vs Nafta Lendava (7) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Orebro (5) under 2.5 goals
Djugardens vs Kalmar (6) 1-1
Trelleborg vs Gefle (5) 1-0
GAIS Goteborg vs Atvidabergs (5) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasby United (6)
Falkenberg vs Hammarby (4)
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs Sion (5) 0-1
Luzern vs St.Gallen (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Arsenal Kiev (4) 0-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Volyn Lutsk (8) -1.75 handicap
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 0-2
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!