Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between giants Sao Paulo and battling Vasco da Gama. The hosts have a good deal of issues at the moment, which partially explains their poor form, whereas their opponents have seldom looked as unified as they do now so they should present stubborn resistance tonight.
So – Sao Paulo – where to begin? Four wins in fifteen Serie A games is not the record of a Serie A title contender, I’m sure you’ll agree. They’re actually dangerously close to the relegation zone and whereas I’d be surprised to see them relegated from the division, no side is too big to go down so they’re going to have to be very careful here. The departures of defender Cicinho and playmaker Hernanes in the transfer window are big losses for Sao Paulo. Their defence is still fairly solid without Cicinho, I think it’s fair to say, but they’re certainly better with him rather than without him, especially from a creative angle too. Hernanes is a massive blow, however – he’s joined Lazio and without him, Sao Paulo’s midfield core is gone. They find it very hard to score goals without him because there is nobody who can take his place, which is largely why Sao Paulo have only beaten Ceara in their last eight games in a nervy 2-1 home win. They’re still not an easy side to beat but if you’re not scoring goals then you’re not a threat at the other end of the field. Sao Paulo’s new manager Baresi is yet to impress with a draw at home to impotent Cruzeiro and a 3-0 defeat at bitter rivals Corinthians last match so Sao Paulo aren’t exactly flying high at the moment. Star striker Dagoberto is out-of-form and has been for a while so that’s why he’s not been playing. Who’s left – ageing duo Fernandao and Ricardo Oliveira? It doesn’t exactly overwhelm defences, does it? Sao Paulo are still a very compact side and tend to keep the ball well but when it comes to breaking sides down and creating chances, they really fall short and Vasco da Gama are the type of side that they really hate playing against currently due to their strong defence so I have my doubts over Sao Paulo winning this game tonight.
Visitors Vasco da Gama enter this game on the back of an impressive 2-2 derby draw with high-flying Fluminense, which was a fair result although it could have and should have been a higher-scoring games with both sides wasting good chances in that game. I’m pleased that the game developed as I hoped and expected it to as it was a very good game by all accounts between two very in-form sides and both sides leave the game with some momentum because of the fair result. That game takes it to eight consecutive games without defeat for Vasco da Gama. If this record continues, they’ll be building a statue of manager Gusmao outside the Sao Janurio due to his tremendous achievements with the club and he’d have earned it too! Vasco are starting to take their chances a lot better despite having a relatively average attack and they’re defending better than ever because of his organisational skills so Vasco are very much the side to beat at the moment. Ironically, it was defensive errors last match that cost them three points but Fluminense’s overall display earned three points either way so the draw is still a fair result in my eyes. However, Vasco’s momentum is tremendous at the moment and you’re a braver man than I am if you go against them currently!
Now for the bad news – head-to-heads drastically favour Sao Paulo, as you’d expect really. They’ve won five consecutive games against Vasco da Gama and have beaten them at home for eight consecutive meetings. However, I would be quick to point out that Vasco da Gama haven’t had as good a manager as Gusmao in charge of them in that time and Sao Paulo haven’t looked as poor as they do now in that time so it’s not a massively relevant statistic, although as with all statistics, they’re certainly worth bearing in mind. Given that nobody seems to be able to beat Vasco da Gama at the moment and that Sao Paulo are really struggling to break resilient and well-organised sides down, I have to view the odds of laying Sao Paulo at 4/5 as as a reasonably generous price although under 2.5 goals at 3/4 also looks tempting.
Verdict: Lay Sao Paulo at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Auxerre vs Zenit St.Petersburg – draw with away win no bet at 11/10.
These two sides are similar tactically but only one of those two sides has quality throughout and that’s the Russian league leaders Zenit St.Petersburg. Russian sides don’t tend to travel well for obvious reasons but Zenit’s side is experienced in Europe so this shouldn’t be an issue for them. Luciano Spalletti is a very good manager tactically and that showed with Zenit’s dominant display in Russia in the first leg where they could have and should have won by more. If there’s one fault Zenit has then it’s scoring goals but perhaps the return of prodigal son Alexandr Kezhakov to goalscoring form may inspire them to do so, although they’d no doubt love to have the Kerzhakov-Arshavin partnership re-united in attack currently! Nonetheless, the Portuguese midfielder Danny, who was signed to replace Arshavin initially, has done a very good job for Zenit with good dribbling skills and a knack of finding space wherever possible so Zenit aren’t exactly short of talent. The acquisition of Porto defender Bruno Alves a week or two ago for approximately twenty-two million Euros showed that Zenit mean business again this year and it’s going to take a better side than Auxerre to break them down, in my humble opinion. Kerzhakov said in an interview lately that Spalletti told them exactly what to expect from Auxerre and that’s exactly what happened so you have to feel that Zenit have the edge here mentally too. Auxerre are a decent side in Ligue 1 but nothing more than that. They over-achieved last season to get where they are now and they’ve not made drastic improvements over the summer with their most worthwhile signing being Le Tallec signing to replace AS Monaco-bound Niculae but they’re not good enough to be playing at this level. It doesn’t help that Auxerre have started their Ligue 1 campaign in poor fashion with three consecutive draws, two of which were at home, so it’s unlikely that Auxerre will turn that around tonight. Zenit looked a class above them in St.Petersburg in the first leg and the fact that they’re mid-season obviously benefits them so I really favour the Russians here.
However, they simply don’t score many goals and with an Italian in charge, you know they’re going to play for the draw. I expect a similar display to the one that Zenit showed in Romania against Unirea Urziceni in the last round so we’ll most likely see a draw here. My tip today coves what I deem as the only two possible outcomes as the stake is returned if Zenit win but your bet wins if the game is a draw. I simply can’t see how Auxerre will win this game so this should be a good bet today.
Verdict: Draw with away win no bet at 11/10.
Colo Colo vs Universitario de Sucre – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
This particular bet brings me back to one of my favourite bets ever; going against Bolivian sides when the Bolivians are away from home on the continent. Because of the severe altitude that most of the Bolivian sides play at, they tend to get annihlated away from home and that’s not likely to change tonight. I’ve compiled a list of the results of Bolivian sides away from home on the continent from 2008 until today’s date in both the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamericana for you to view below to emphasise my point:
2010 – Alianza Lima vs Bolivar La Paz – 1-0
2010 – Universitario Lima vs Blooming Santa Cruz – 0-0
2010 – Atletico Lanus vs Blooming Santa Cruz – 1-0
2010 – Estudiantes De La Plata vs Bolivar La Paz – 2-0
2010 – Juan Aurich vs Bolivar La Paz – 2-0
2010 – Libertad Asuncion vs Bolivar La Paz – 4-0
2010 – Cruzeiro vs Real Potosi – 7-0
2009 – Boyaca Chico vs Aurora Cochabamba – 2-1
2009 – Deportivo Quito vs Universitario de Sucre – 3-1
2009 – Gremio vs Aurora Cochabamba – 3-0
2009 – Cruzeiro vs Universitario de Sucre – 2-0
2009 – Universidad de Chile vs Aurora Cochabamba – 3-0
2009 – Estudiantes De La Plata vs Universitario de Sucre – 1-0
2009 – Cerro Porteno vs La Paz – 2-0
2009 – River Plate Montevideo vs Blooming Santa Cruz – 2-1
2008 – Santos vs San Jose – 7-0
2008 – San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Real Potosi – 1-0
2008 – Cucuta Deportivo vs San Jose – 0-0
2008 – Caracas vs Real Potosi – 2-1
2008 – Guadalajara vs San Jose – 2-0
2008 – Cruzeiro vs Real Potosi – 3-0
2008 – Atlas vs La Paz – 2-0
2008 – Olimpia Asuncion vs Blooming Santa Cruz – 4-2
2008 – Liga de Quito vs Bolivar La Paz – 4-2
Summarised – there are twenty-four games here. Twenty-two ended in home wins and the other two were draws. Bolivian sides only scored in six of those games, which is an average of a goal per every four away games. Fifteen of the twenty-two home wins have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap. Only one of those games was in Chile in which Universidad de Chile beat the -1.5 goal handicap against Aurora Cochabamba.
I’m sure you can see my point here! Colo Colo are vastly experienced in continental football having played in either the Libertadores or the Sudamericana for longer than I care to remember. They’ve only hosted two Bolivian sides here in the past six years – Real Potosi in 2007 (3-1) and Bolivar La Paz in 2004 (2-0) – and as you can see, they’ve always come out on top. They lost the first leg 2-0 in Bolivia due to severe altitude; this time they have the home advantage. The Chilean side have been superb at home domestically this season with nine wins from ten games, averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game. Star striker Ezequiel Miralles from Argentina has been without a goal in three consecutive games but is on-fire this season and was rested during their last match so he could play tonight. Colo Colo need to go all out against their inferior opponents here to progress and far more favours them than opposes them. Universitaro are not a good travelling side, just like the rest of their country, with a 3-1 defeat in Ecuador, a 2-0 defeat in Brazil, and a 1-0 defeat in Argentina to show from their most recent trip into continental competition. They’re far from the most experienced side in Bolivia with smatterings of experience here and there but given that they’re not even the best side in their own country, it’s hard to take them seriously here.
If Colo Colo turn up tonight, I expect this game to be 4-0. Even if they don’t, they really ought to beat the -1.5 goal handicap. With the above information in mind, taking Colo Colo -1.5 at 4/5 looks far too generous to ignore tonight.
Verdict: Colo Colo to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Goias vs Fluminense – away win at 6/5.
Four wins in eight away games for Fluminense makes them the best away side in Brazil’s Serie A currently and it’s deservedly so too. They’ve played some excellent attacking football this season and with strikers Fred, Washington, and Emerson all pulling their weight, Fluminense are rarely short on options. Deco looked good during their derby against Vasco da Gama last match and should prove an invaluable acquisition for Fluminense in their bid for a first league title in a long time. Fluminense’s away wins this season include trips to Santos, Avai, and Gremio, so they’re not exactly played poor sides to boost their away form statistics! They defend astutely away from home and take their chances so they should always be considered a threat away from home. Fluminense don’t have a good record at Goias but no defeats in twelve consecutive games (including nine wins) says that they have the ability and momentum to change that tonight.
There’s a reason that Goias are in the relegation zone currently; they don’t know how to score in any other way than on the counter-attack. They’ve won just once at home in seven attempts this season and that was solely down to a last-gasp goal so Goias really aren’t a force at home. They’re solid enough defensively but as the joint lowest-scoring side in Serie A at home (along with Cruzeiro) it’s no surprise that they’ve still managed to lose three of their home games. Goias have lost at home to Atletico Paranaense and Gremio Prudente in their last four home games, which is unacceptable as both of those sides are terrible away from home. They’ve actually held better sides than those two in-between those two games but the fact remains that Goias are in essence a very poor side. They’ve now lost two consecutive games in Serie A and with Everton Santos being the only striker of theirs with any intention of trying to stop the club going down, things look rather bleak for Goias.
Away wins in South America are never easy to call so approach with caution. However, the away win is decently priced tonight so it should be worth a punt for what is unequivocally the best side in Brazil currently – Fluminense.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at 6/5.
Cruzeiro vs Corinthians – away win at 33/20.
Corinthians? Away from home? No chance!
However, before your dimiss this bet, let me point out that this game is not being played in the Mineirao in Belo Horizonte, where Cruzeiro’s usual home games are played. That stadium has now been closed due to renovation ahead of the next World Cup so both Cruzeiro and Atletico Mineiro will be playing at nearby grounds for the forseeable future, which removes the majority of the home advantage. Are you interested in the bet now?! You should be!
The above doesn’t guarantee us success, naturally – Corinthians still don’t travel well. However, on the back of an emphatic 3-0 derby win against Sao Paulo despite missing star strikers Ronaldo and Dentinho should give them a massive boost, not to mention their coach Batista claiming his second win in charge of Corinthians. Corinthians are still very much in the Serie A title race and they have to keep winning to stay close to Fluminense. I’d ignore this game entirely if it was at the Mineirao but it’s not so the two sides should at least be at the same prices. For some reason, the bookies have priced Corinthians longer than they should be for this game although I expect that to change quite rapidly when this information is out. Cruzeiro are still a decent side and don’t concede many goals but five wins in fifteen Serie A games shows where their problem lies; goalscoring. Cruzeiro are relying far too heavily on Wellington Paulista in attack and it’s crippling them from within so Corinthians have a real chance to capitalise on an under-performing Cruzeiro side that don’t even boast a genuine home advantage here.
I’m ultimately expecting a close game between two good sides so under 2.5 goals looks a given here. However, I think the price on Corinthians is too long here so they have to be given a thought here, although my confidence will be lessened if Dentinho doesn’t start.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 33/20.
Botafogo vs Ceara – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
This one speaks for itself, surely? Botafogo averaging scoring just below two goals per home game and Ceara don’t even average scoring goal per away game but compensate by averaging conceding just a goal per away game. Barring in a freak 2-1 win at home to Gremio last match, Ceara just don’t offer any goal threat. They failed to register against a rather average Flamengo in their last away game so I expect another defensive line-up from Ceara tonight because that’s basically all that they’re good at. Botafogo have done well at home this season without winning enough but four consecutive wins leads them into this game so they have enough momentum to shatter a stiff Ceara resolve. They’ve scored four times and kept two clean sheets in their last two home games and are generally playing very well indeed so Botafogo should really be able to win this one tonight. Either way, I’m banking on Ceara’s defence holding as firm as usual and Ceara hopefully not doing anything stupid like venturing forward and scoring! The odds look a tad generous either way so my call is under 2.5 goals in this one tonight as I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
B71 Sandur vs Vikingur Gotu – away win at 11/10.
B71 are staring relegation in the face with fifve defeats in six games because their defence simply isn’t good enough, averaging conceding nearly two goals per home game and over two goals per away game. Uncharacteristically, B71’s only break from defeats during that time was at giants HB Torshavn, winning 2-1. Since then, however, B71 have shipped nineteen goals in three games, which is an average of over five goals per game so you can see why relegation from the Meistaradeildin is a very real possibility this year. They lost 5-0 at Vikingur Gotu two days ago; what’s to say today will be any different? Vikingur have won this fixture for two consecutive years and are simply a better side. B71 also miss their best player Simun Hansen through suspesion for this game so it’s hard for me to engineer any kind of reasoning for there to be anything other than an away win here today. Vikingur have won four consecutive games ahead of this one as they look to secure a European place for next season and with thirteen goals scored in four games, that looks a very real possibility, especially with star midfielder Solvi Vatnhamar in such potent form. Youthful duo Justiunssen and Klettskard have contributed with goals from attack this season for Vikingur Gotu but the driving force behind the side is their midfield – winger Suni Olsen, and the two central midfielders Sam Jacobsen and Solvi Vatnhamar – and with the hosts lessened in potency without their leading goalscorer, the Vikingur Gotu midfield should have even more chance to dominate here. For me, 11/10 is too generous on the away win so that’s my recommendation today, especially as Vikingur love their trips south to Sandur to play in the Inni I Dal!
Verdict: Vikingur Gotu to win at 11/10.
Helsingborgs vs Trelleborg – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
A lot of people are fawning over the home win here and wheras statistics do support it, I’m a little hesitant with it. Why? Well, Helsingborgs have looked nervous of late and Trelleborg have looked inspired, to be blunt. Trelleborg have won four out of their last five games in the Allsvenskan and were beyond unfortunate not to win the other at Kalmar, conceding two late goals to eventually lose the game 2-1. Trelleborg’s heads didn’t drop, however, and they followed the defeat up with a hard-fought 3-2 win at home to Hacken Goteborg. Trelleborg are scoring goals both at home and away from home at the moment and although their defence is far from stable, their potency is undeniable, especially with such momentum behind them. Trelleborg also have the mental advantage of knowing that they’ve not lost Helsingborgs in three consecutive visits since gaining promotion back into the Allsvenskan in time for the 2007 season, drawing each encounter. Trelleborg’s away record in the Allsvenakn is poor currently and Helsingborgs’ home record is very good this season but something warns me against the home win here and I’m not entirely sure what it is! I think it’s basically that Helsingborgs’ displays of late have merited an upset and the way Trelleborg are playing at the moment could mean that they’re the team to upset them. Helsingborgs average scoring two goals per game at home and conceding a goal per home game whereas Trelleborg average conceding just under two goals per away game and score just under a goal per away game. Trelleborg have gone over 2.5 goals in five out of their last six games and Helsingborgs have gone over 2.5 goals in six out of their last seven Allsvenskan games so we have a real collision of form and potency here that should yield a lot of goals. Personally, at short odds on Helsingborgs, I wouldn’t touch the home win here as I do believe Trelleborg can cause an upset. However, the market for over 2.5 goals does intrigue me as it’s reasonably priced at 4/5 and both sides have demonstrated their inability to defend of late, although both sides to score at 10/11 also intrigues me.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Tottenham Hotspur, Colo Colo, Everton, Suduva Marijampole, Sogndal.
Recommended bets:
Fluminense and Colo Colo at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:
FC Copenhagen vs Rosenborg BK (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
MSK Zilina vs Sparta Prague (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Tottenham Hotspur vs Young Boys Bern (8) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Auxerre vs Zenit St.Petersburg (6) 0-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 2-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Colo Colo vs Universitario de Sucre (9) -1.5 handicap
Recopa Sudamericana:
Liga de Quito vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Goias vs Fluminense (7) 1-2
Avai vs Internacional (5) 1-1
Botafogo vs Ceara (7) under 2.5 goals
Gremio Prudente vs Atletico Paranaense (5) 0-0
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama (6) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Corinthians (6) 1-2
Gremio vs Santos (5) 1-1
English League Cup:
Accrington Stanley vs Newcastle United (7) over 2.5 goals
Everton vs Huddersfield Town (8) 2-1
Fulham vs Port Vale (3) 1-1
Faroese Mestaradeildin:
B36 Torshavn vs Suduroy (6) 1-0
EB/Streymur vs NSI Runavik (6) 1-1
B68 Toftir vs HB Torshavn (5) 1-2
B71 Sandur vs Vikingur Gotu (7) over 2.5 goals
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Tauras Taurage (8) 2-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Ranheim (7)
Alta vs Follo (5)
Sogndal vs Bryne (8)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborgs vs Trelleborg (7) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-1
Montevideo Wanderers vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!