Anderlecht vs Hajduk Split
FreeAfter a pretty disastrous wednesday, today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Belgium between Anderlecht and Hajduk Split. The Belgian hosts must win to have any hope of qualifying for the latter stages of this competition whereas Croatian visitors Hajduk Split couldn’t really care less as they’re now out of the tournament.
Anderlecht have disappointed in the UEFA Europa League thus far but have a shot at redemption tonight if they win and AEK Athens lose at home to their superior Russian visitors, Zenit St.Petersburg. Anderlecht have to seize the moment and I think they’re well-placed to do so tonight. Anderlecht welcome back Biglia after his lengthy absence so their midfield is immediately stronger, especially with Boussoufa back to pulling the strings in midfield too. The game against Lokeren at weekend will have improved his fitness somewhat and Anderlecht are getting back to full-strength at long last. De Sutter and Suarez are vying for places in attack alongside Lukaku and Legear is playing well in midfield. Anderlecht will miss Deschacht, especially against good sides as their defence is their weakest point. However, with a win essential to them tonight, I’m not envisioning defence to be a big issue for them tonight. It’s true that they face Club Brugge at weekend, which is always a big game for Anderlecht, not to mention in terms of the Eerste Klasse title. However, the new league system drafted in over the past few years means it’s irrelevant where Anderlecht finish in this table as they’re going to be in the top six anyway and that means they get another chance to beat all the sides around them. Therefore, rest assured that Anderlecht’s sole attention is on tonight’s game and with so many important players returning for them, I expect a strong display from the hosts tonight.
It aids my bet massively that Hajduk Split don’t care about this game, however. They’ve left winger Anas Sharbini, defender Maloca, and midfielders Ljubicic and Brkljaca behind for this game, which lessens the ability of this team dramatically. They’ve not played a competitive game of football for eleven days now and have conceded at least two goals in four out of their five UEFA Europa League games. The pace of youngster Vukusic in attack is a dangerous weapon and has proven to be so and on various occasions already this seasion but Hajduk’s defence is very susceptible and we should see that tonight if Anderlecht put in the vibrant display that I expect them to. Hajduk are a capable side but with their absentees and suspect defence, I expect them to be on the receiving end of a fairly hefty defeat tonight.
Obviously the pressure is on Anderlecht to win so do approach this game with caution – pressure can do funny things to different sides. However, with the quality of the players available to Jacobs tonight, I have to back Anderlecht to beat the -1.5 goal handicap in their must-win game against under-strength Hajduk Split here.
Team news – Anderlecht miss Deschacht whereas Hajduk Split miss Ahmad Sharbini, Anas Sharbini, Cop, Ljubicic, Brkljaca, Maloca, Marijan Buljat, Rezic, and Subasic.
Verdict: Anderlecht to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Salzburg vs Lech Poznan – home win at 6/5.
Considering how well Lech Poznan have played in the UEFA Europa League so far, I do have to emphasise caution with this bet but there is method to the madness, of course!
I don’t think I’m being unfair by stating that Salzburg are the better of these two sides, for starters. They’re more experience than Lech, especially on the European front, and have better players by majority. Circumstances and player availability have dictated Lech’s progression and Salzburg’s omission from the UEFA Europa League rather than the seemingly large quality gap between the two sides, which isn’t the case at all. I think tonight we’ll see the real Salzburg and the real Lech Poznan, for a change, because this game in essence is pretty redundant.
Lech can win the group if they win this game but that requires Manchester City to lose at Juventus, which I really don’t imagine that they’ll do. However, for Lech to win this game, they need to overcome a lot of hurdles. First of all, it’s approximately -8 degrees in Salzburg currently and those aren’t easy conditions to play in. Lech played in similar conditions at home to Juventus so I’m not doubting their ability to handle it here but what I am doubting is their match practice in it. Lech have done nothing but train for fifteen days now; they’ve not played any games and they’ve thus not got the same level of “experience” playing in this cold weather, which I personally feel is quite important. We also have to bear in mind that Bakero’s Lech Poznan team travelled to Austria by plane, landed at the airport, and discovered that their bus was still only half-way to Austria due to poor weather so Lech’s preparations have suffered setbacks here. The good news for Lech is that star defender Arboleda has finally signed a new deal but will this allude to the complacency that I expect Lech to finally show now that the pressure is off and they’re lacking in match experience? I think there’s a good chance of it, to be honest. Bakero has said he may rest creative attacker Peszko in this game too, as he’s already on a yellow card, which would be another blow for Lech, although they do have a full-strength squad available to them tonight so a replacement would be available – just not to the same quality, in my opinion.
All in all, we see a Lech side here that can lose against the right opponent and why not Salzburg? They’ve been consistently underestimated thus far due to ineffectual displays and poor finishing but they’ve played very well lately. They’re unbeaten domestically in six games despite facing Sturm Graz (three times!) and Austria Vienna along the way, winning four times along the way. Salzburg’s displays have improved a lot and let’s face it – they’ve had to or they can kiss their Bundesliga title goodbye. They beat Sturm Graz 2-1 at weekend but having watched the game myself, I’d say that 5-1 would not have flattered Salzburg; they were utterly dominant. As with many occasions this season, they have lacked the killer touch in front of goal but they’re still scoring enough goals to win games so I’ll overlook it for this game. Towering striker Boghossian will be a handful for Lech tonight, as will his experienced strike partner Wallner and pacey Zarate so Salzburg do have attacking options. The missing of Leitgeb in midfield is a blow for the Austrian side but Cziommer is at least fit again so their midfield shouldn’t suffer overly from a lack of talent. Svento is a doubt for this game on the flank but I think he’ll play either way, to be honest. Salzburg’s strength comes from their composed defence, however, which gradually spreads to the rest of the team and thus Afolabi and Sekagya are vital to their displays as they tend to keep most sides out. If they play well today then I think a rusty Lech Poznan will have a lot of problems overcoming them tonight and I quite fancy in-form Salzburg to trouble Lech Poznan a lot here, given their recent form.
I’d not hesitate to label this is a risky game as it means nothing but for me, this game has to favour Salzburg more than Lech for varying reasons mentioned above. I think there’s more in favour of Salzburg than the odds reflect, especially with UEFA co-efficient points to be obtained, so the home win at 6/5 really appeals to me for an experienced European side against an inexperienced and over-achieving Lech Poznan side.
Team news – Salzburg miss Hinteregger, Schiemer, and Leitgeb whilst having doubts over Gustafsson, Svento, Schwelger, Ulmer, and Nelisse.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 6/5.
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AEK Athens vs Zenit St.Petersburg – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’m not brave enough to enter the 1×2 market here; AEK Athens desperately need something from the game but Zenit are a lot better than they are, just as they are for most sides in this competition, to be fair.
However, both sides scoring appeals to me here. AEK have played well lately, albeit at taking their chances rather than creating them. They’re a little stretched with their limited squad size and crowded fixture schedule but they’re handling it very well, in my opinion, and are now a side to be taken seriously again in Greece – well, at home at least! They need to win this game and although they’re facing one of the best sides in the competition, AEK will be comforted by the fact that Zenit haven’t played a competitive match for two weeks and by the fact that they’re leaving behind five key players – Anyukov, Danny, Kerzhakov, Krizanac, and Bystov – so they will have their chances here, just as they had at Petrovsky a couple of months ago. AEK’s problem is in defence and they’re likely to concede with that in mind as Zenit are a very good attacking side. However, this is a rusty Zenit side, so who knows whether they’ll play well here or not? I think they’ll create enough chances to score but with missing players, I think there’s a decent chance that they won’t win this game. Defender Lombaerts says they’ll be going for the win and rumours suggest that Zenit will get a bonus for winning all of their games in this group but that’s hearsay in my eyes. The better of these two sides is rusty and missing key players and with their opponents needing the points here, I expect an open game with plenty of goals so my call is for both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news – AEK miss Djebbour and Saja whereas Zenit miss Kerzhakov, Anyukov, Danny, Krizanac, and Bystrov for this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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Accumulator fodder:
Anderlecht
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht and Salzburg at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Salzburg vs Lech Poznan (5) over 2.5 goals
Juventus vs Manchester City (6) 0-0
Aris Salonika vs Rosenborg BK (7) 1-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Atletico Madrid (5) 1-1
LOSC Lille vs AA Gent (7) 1-0
Levski Sofia vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) 1-2
Anderlecht vs Hajduk Split (8) -1.5 handicap
AEK Athens vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) both sides to score
VfB Stuttgart vs OB Odense (5) over 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-0
Debreceni VSC vs Sampdoria (3) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
PSV Eindhoven vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!