Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
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Today’s free tip is in the A-League encounter between Melbourne Victory and Perth Glory.
In the past, you could be forgiven for expecting a good game between these two teams. Melbourne Victory are one of Australia’s biggest clubs and the onus on them is always to win games at home, which meant throwing more caution to the wind than they’d ordinarily do on the road. Perth Glory were a much more attack-minded side than their hosts but they usually tried to defend in such fixtures, which went horribly wrong because they couldn’t do that very well, and left them pushing out more, hence the entertainment value. Perth Glory were clinical in attack too though – that made things interesting. Indeed, I recall a game between these two ending 1-1 in 2016 despite Melbourne Victory playing them off the park for the entire game. Perth Glory simply took their chances quite well when Lowe was in charge, and with the players they had, that cannot be considered to be a surprise.
However, I am expecting a very different game today. Despite the A-League being known as a more high-scoring league than anything else, I am expecting a very tense and low-scoring affair in Melbourne today. It’s hardly a secret that Melbourne Victory boss Muscat does tend to err on the side of caution, often deploying two holding midfielders and expecting more from his wingers and full-backs from an attacking perspective. I don’t think that’ll change today, particularly as they don’t tend to fare too well when coming from behind.
The big difference for this game is at Perth Glory, though, where Tony Popovic has taken over. He did marvellously well at Western Sydney Wanderers some years back now, even winning them the Asian Champions League. However, they did that by defending stoutly and being organised at all times whilst remaining clinical at the other end. They were tactical masters, essentially, and that’s what he is going to bring to Perth Glory, which is in stark contrast to their chaotic attacking approach under Kenny Lowe. You can see it from the signings he’s made pre-season – big, strong, vicious defenders/defensive midfielders with lots of experience. Therefore, I think Popovic will make Perth Glory defend in today’s game because attacking Melbourne Victory on their own patch is about as stupid as it gets in A-League football.
I watched the Melbourne derby last weekend, and although Melbourne City went on to win it, I wouldn’t say that they were the better team, per se. I simply thought that they were smarter than Melbourne Victory on the day, taking the chances that came their way and defending well. Here’s the thing though – Melbourne Victory just couldn’t break them down with any consistency. That may improve as time goes by because they have made plenty of pre-season changes so a lack of cohesion could be a factor. To me, though, they lack natural flair players. Their most successful and impressive teams always have a Rojas or a George in there. This one doesn’t though. It has a wonderfully talented playmaker in Honda, and a couple of midfielders that make good driving runs through the middle in Troisi and Antonis. However, they’ve only got one solid wide threat in rapid Barbarouses, and he’s not blessed in the skill department – just speed. Essentially, if you nullify Barbarouses, Melbourne Victory do find it hard to break teams down unless Ingham has one of his rare good days.
Furthermore, you have to bear in mind that Swedish target man Toivonen will be out for a while for today’s hosts. He was signed to replace talismanic Kosovan battering ram Berisha and they don’t have a replacement for him. The only one that can technically play his role is Athiu and although he’s got one hell of a physical threat, his shooting would be at about -4 on Football Manager, you know? On the break, he can do a job, but breaking teams down? No chance. Muscat could make his team play without a striker in a fluid system of sorts but he doesn’t tend to enjoy playing that way; he prefers things to be more regimented. Therefore, I expect Melbourne Victory to struggle a little today unless Perth Glory are feeling incredibly charitable. Melbourne Victory shouldn’t struggle at the back, though – they’re solid and they’ve got one of the best goalkeepers in the league between the sticks behind them.
In addition to Thomas playing, Perth Glory’s attack is unlikely to trouble their hosts. On their day they would, sure, but they’re missing too many players here for that to be the case. They’ve got two naturally gifted playmakers, Perth Glory, in wizard Castro and wonderkid Italiano, and they’re both injured today. Rapid winger Harold is injured, and powerful battering ram Santalab is out too. Now, Irish striker Keogh is a good enough striker at this level, although I have been concerned over the past year as he’s lost his confidence in front of goal. He’s fast and clever, though, so he’s a threat. Fabio Ferreira is a proven winger at this level – if he’s fit. Ikonomidis was a fine signing for them too. However, that’s literally all that Perth Glory bring to the table today, so I don’t see why Melbourne Victory would be quaking in their boots today.
Defensively speaking, Perth Glory have the capacity to be one of the best teams in Australia. They’re loaded with experienced personnel, hard-working players, and vicious, dirty sods in their back four. With Spiranovic, Djulbic, and Lowry at the back, not to mention Kilkenny in front of them, they’re going to rack up plenty of cautions this season. However, they’re capable of dominating every A-League team in the air, they’re not going to give much away, and Popovic’s tactical approach should ensure that the midfield protects them well. Essentially, I don’t see Perth Glory conceding many unless they’re pushing out to score goals, which won’t happen too often, and I certainly don’t see it happening today. Besides, they’ve got enough quality in attack to win them games without committing men forward regularly – it just so happens that most of them are out for this game!
To me, even in a traditionally high-scoring division, I think the value lies in backing under 2.5 goals in this match.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Argentinian Superliga:
Patronato vs Rosario Central
Banfield vs Estudiantes de la Plata
Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano de Cordoba
Racing Club Avellaneda vs San Lorenzo de Almagro
Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker
Wolfsberger AC vs St. Polten
LASK Linz vs Salzburg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk
AS Eupen vs RSC Anderlecht
Waasland-Beveren vs Antwerp
Bulgarian A PFG:
Etar vs Slavia Sofia
Septemvri Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Rijeka
Slaven Koprivnica vs Dinamo Zagreb
Czech Republic HET Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovacko
Baumit Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec
Danish Superligaen:
Hobro vs Vejle
Randers vs Esbjerg
FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus
Aalborg BK vs Vendsyssel
English Premier League:
Burnley vs Chelsea
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Manchester United vs Everton
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tammeka vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
French Ligue 1:
Stade Rennais vs Stade de Reims
Girondins de Bordeaux vs OGC Nice
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
Nurnberg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04
Werder Bremen vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs Dynamo Dresden
Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg
St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Vidi
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs MS Ashdod
Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Italian Serie A:
Sassuolo vs Bologna
Cagliari vs Chievo Verona
Genoa vs Udinese
SPAL vs Frosinone
AC Milan vs Sampdoria
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma
Italian Serie B:
Crotone vs Salernitana
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs Fortuna Sittard
Willem II vs FC Utrecht
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek
Ranheim vs Lillestrom
Sarpsborg 08 vs Haugesund
Odd vs Tromso
Kristiansund vs Sandefjord
Brann Bergen vs Rosenborg BK
Portuguese Liga 1:
Moreirense vs Maritimo Funchal
Tondela vs Vitoria Setubal
FC Porto vs Feirense
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Boavista
Portuguese Liga 2:
UD Oliveirense vs Sporting Braga II
Arouca vs Mafra
Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Pacos de Ferreira
Russian Premier League:
Yenisey vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Akhmat Grozny vs Dinamo Moscow
CSKA Moscow vs FK Krasnodar
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Real Betis Balompie
Barcelona CF vs Real Madrid
Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal CF
Sevilla CF vs Huesca
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Hammarby vs Kalmar FF
Orebro vs Djurgarden
Sirius vs Brommapojkarna
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs Luzern
Lugano vs Thun
St. Gallen vs FC Zurich
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Chiasso
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray
Fenerbahce vs Ankaragucu
Enjoy your free betting tips!