Gremio vs Sao Paulo
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A match between Gremio and Sao Paulo. Although both juggernauts of Brazilian football, it’s fair to say that neither team is on top of the world at the moment. They’re in respectable enough positions in Serie A, I suppose, but neither have ever really been in the title race this season, Gremio because they’ve not defended well enough, and Sao Paulo because they’ve not attacked well enough. With the growing financial support for Flamengo and Palmeiras, it’s hard to imagine that gap lessening in the near future either.
When it comes to the two teams facing one another, I believe Gremio have the edge, at least tonight. For starters, they’re at home, and Gremio are always strong at home. That’s been the case even with bad squads in the past. Furthermore, Sao Paulo – like most Brazilian teams – struggle to get near to their best away from home. Indeed, Sao Paulo struggle against Gremio in general, having now failed to beat them for seven consecutive meetings. They’ve lost three in a row at the Arena do Gremio too, and I would be surprised if it became four in a row tonight.
For me, the reason Gremio always seem to have this edge over Sao Paulo is because they play with more energy and conviction. Sao Paulo’s style is more reminiscent of their bitter rivals, Corinthians, which means they prioritise organisation and defending over attacking. That in itself is quite frustrating, given that Sao Paulo do tend to produce good attackers. Still, it’s what they’ve opted to do, so that’s how things are. They get away with it against most teams in Serie A, to be fair. Possessing a classy playmaker like Hernanes, experienced poacher Pato, wonderkid Antony, Bueno, and Tche Tche will always give them a shot of taking the lead in a dour, lifeless game. Against good teams, though, Sao Paulo tend to look out of their depth, which is what I expect to happen in Porto-Alegrense tonight.
Gremio, despite being defensively poor, are a very energetic and entertaining outfit. They’ve got good finishers, and good flair players supporting them. Tardelli and Everton will always get a team in Brazil goals, and with Luan, Pepe, Luciano etc. supporting, Gremio usually threaten their opponents’ goal. Their attacking power often discourages teams from attacking them, which helps them win matches. If teams were to actually take the game to Gremio (as some did earlier in the season) then they’d score a lot of goals against a slow, inconsistent back four.
Still, the Gremio midfield helps to keep things in check, especially Romulo. They tend to keep the ball well, and with the flair players in the squad, Gremio seldom struggle to break teams down. Breaking Sao Paulo down is unquestionably a painful task because it takes time and patience. However, there’s a touch of inevitability about such here because Gremio always manage it in the end. Therefore, assuming that Sao Paulo don’t scrape an undeserved goal together from nowhere in the meantime, it’s a realistic to expect Gremio to win this one.
With the above in mind, backing Gremio to win at 4/5 makes sense to me.
Verdict: Gremio to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Sydney FC
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix
Austrian Bundesliga:
Admira Wacker vs Salzburg
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC
LASK Linz vs Rapid Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Oostende vs RSC Anderlecht
Standard de Liege vs Cercle Brugge
Kortrijk vs AA Gent
Brazilian Serie A:
Goias vs Fortaleza
Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians
CSA vs Bahia
Avai vs Fluminense
Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Santos vs Chapecoense
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda
Vitosha Bistritsa vs Dunav 2010
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Rijeka
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Baumit Jablonec vs Ceske Budejovice
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice
Viktoria Plzen vs Bohemians 1905
Slavia Prague vs Karvina
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs Brondby
Randers vs SonderjyskE
AC Horsens vs OB
Esbjerg vs AGF
Aalborg BK vs Hobro
English Premier League:
Norwich City vs Arsenal
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sheffield United
Leicester City vs Everton
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
French Ligue 1:
Nantes Atlantique vs Toulouse
Stade Rennais vs AS Saint-Etienne
AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga 2:
Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld
Heidenheim vs Greuther Furth
SV Sandhausen vs VfB Stuttgart
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Ferencvaros
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Juventus vs Sassuolo
Internazionale vs SPAL
SS Lazio vs Udinese
Parma vs AC Milan
SSC Napoli vs Bologna
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma
Italian Serie B:
Trapani vs Chievo Verona
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia
Perugia vs Pescara
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Twente Enschede vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
FC Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar vs VVV Venlo
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger
Haugesund vs Odd
Kristiansund vs Stromsgodset
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08
Mjondalen vs Valerenga Oslo
Molde FK vs Bodo/Glimt
Rosenborg BK vs Ranheim
Tromso vs Stabaek
Portuguese Liga 1:
Tondela vs Belenenses
Vitoria Setubal vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Portuguese Liga 2:
Casa Pia vs CD Nacional de Madeira
SL Benfica II vs Mafra
FC Porto II vs Cova Piedade
UD Olivierense vs Academico Viseu
Russian Premier League:
Sochi vs FK Orenburg
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF vs Leganes CF
Athletic Club vs Granada
RCD Espanyol vs CA Osasuna
Getafe vs Levante CF
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona CF
Swiss Super League:
FC Basel vs Young Boys Bern
Lugano vs Servette
Luzern vs St. Gallen
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Chiasso
Turkish Super Lig:
Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Denizlispor
Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor
Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray
Enjoy your free betting tips!