Gremio vs Sao Paulo


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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A match between Gremio and Sao Paulo. Although both juggernauts of Brazilian football, it’s fair to say that neither team is on top of the world at the moment. They’re in respectable enough positions in Serie A, I suppose, but neither have ever really been in the title race this season, Gremio because they’ve not defended well enough, and Sao Paulo because they’ve not attacked well enough. With the growing financial support for Flamengo and Palmeiras, it’s hard to imagine that gap lessening in the near future either.

When it comes to the two teams facing one another, I believe Gremio have the edge, at least tonight. For starters, they’re at home, and Gremio are always strong at home. That’s been the case even with bad squads in the past. Furthermore, Sao Paulo – like most Brazilian teams – struggle to get near to their best away from home. Indeed, Sao Paulo struggle against Gremio in general, having now failed to beat them for seven consecutive meetings. They’ve lost three in a row at the Arena do Gremio too, and I would be surprised if it became four in a row tonight.

For me, the reason Gremio always seem to have this edge over Sao Paulo is because they play with more energy and conviction. Sao Paulo’s style is more reminiscent of their bitter rivals, Corinthians, which means they prioritise organisation and defending over attacking. That in itself is quite frustrating, given that Sao Paulo do tend to produce good attackers. Still, it’s what they’ve opted to do, so that’s how things are. They get away with it against most teams in Serie A, to be fair. Possessing a classy playmaker like Hernanes, experienced poacher Pato, wonderkid Antony, Bueno, and Tche Tche will always give them a shot of taking the lead in a dour, lifeless game. Against good teams, though, Sao Paulo tend to look out of their depth, which is what I expect to happen in Porto-Alegrense tonight.

Gremio, despite being defensively poor, are a very energetic and entertaining outfit. They’ve got good finishers, and good flair players supporting them. Tardelli and Everton will always get a team in Brazil goals, and with Luan, Pepe, Luciano etc. supporting, Gremio usually threaten their opponents’ goal. Their attacking power often discourages teams from attacking them, which helps them win matches. If teams were to actually take the game to Gremio (as some did earlier in the season) then they’d score a lot of goals against a slow, inconsistent back four.

Still, the Gremio midfield helps to keep things in check, especially Romulo. They tend to keep the ball well, and with the flair players in the squad, Gremio seldom struggle to break teams down. Breaking Sao Paulo down is unquestionably a painful task because it takes time and patience. However, there’s a touch of inevitability about such here because Gremio always manage it in the end. Therefore, assuming that Sao Paulo don’t scrape an undeserved goal together from nowhere in the meantime, it’s a realistic to expect Gremio to win this one.

With the above in mind, backing Gremio to win at 4/5 makes sense to me.

Verdict: Gremio to win at 4/5.

Sunday’s Thoughts

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.

Australian A-League:

Western United vs Sydney FC 
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix

Austrian Bundesliga:

Admira Wacker vs Salzburg 
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC 
LASK Linz vs Rapid Vienna

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

KV Oostende vs RSC Anderlecht 
Standard de Liege vs Cercle Brugge 
Kortrijk vs AA Gent 

Brazilian Serie A:

Goias vs Fortaleza 
Palmeiras vs Flamengo 
Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians 
CSA vs Bahia 
Avai vs Fluminense 
Gremio vs Sao Paulo 
Santos vs Chapecoense

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda
Vitosha Bistritsa vs Dunav 2010
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad 

Croatian Prva Liga:

Hajduk Split vs Rijeka 

Czech Republic Liga 1:

Baumit Jablonec vs Ceske Budejovice 
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice 
Viktoria Plzen vs Bohemians 1905
Slavia Prague vs Karvina 

Danish Superligaen:

FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 
Randers vs SonderjyskE
AC Horsens vs OB 
Esbjerg vs AGF 
Aalborg BK vs Hobro 

English Premier League:

Norwich City vs Arsenal 
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sheffield United 
Leicester City vs Everton 
Manchester United vs Aston Villa 

French Ligue 1:

Nantes Atlantique vs Toulouse 
Stade Rennais vs AS Saint-Etienne 
AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain 

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen 

German Bundesliga 2:

Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld 
Heidenheim vs Greuther Furth
SV Sandhausen vs VfB Stuttgart 

Hungarian Liga 1:

Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Ferencvaros 

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem

Italian Serie A:

Juventus vs Sassuolo
Internazionale vs SPAL
SS Lazio vs Udinese 
Parma vs AC Milan 
SSC Napoli vs Bologna 
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma 

Italian Serie B:

Trapani vs Chievo Verona 
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia 
Perugia vs Pescara 

Dutch Eredivisie:

FC Twente Enschede vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam 
FC Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk 
AZ Alkmaar vs VVV Venlo 
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle 
FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger 
Haugesund vs Odd 
Kristiansund vs Stromsgodset
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 
Mjondalen vs Valerenga Oslo 
Molde FK vs Bodo/Glimt 
Rosenborg BK vs Ranheim 
Tromso vs Stabaek 

Portuguese Liga 1:

Tondela vs Belenenses 
Vitoria Setubal vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Clube de Portugal 

Portuguese Liga 2:

Casa Pia vs CD Nacional de Madeira 
SL Benfica II vs Mafra 
FC Porto II vs Cova Piedade
UD Olivierense vs Academico Viseu 

Russian Premier League:

Sochi vs FK Orenburg
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow 
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow 

Spanish Primera Liga:

Sevilla CF vs Leganes CF
Athletic Club vs Granada 
RCD Espanyol vs CA Osasuna 
Getafe vs Levante CF
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona CF 

Swiss Super League:

FC Basel vs Young Boys Bern 
Lugano vs Servette 
Luzern vs St. Gallen 

Swiss Challenge League:

Vaduz vs Chiasso 

Turkish Super Lig:

Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Denizlispor
Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor
Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

Enjoy your free betting tips!