Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Paderborn 07
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Today’s free tip is in the German Bundesliga encounter between Fortuna Dusseldorf and Paderborn 07.
It’s going to be a bit weird, all this football without fans malarkey. At such a crucial stage of the season, I think that the home teams are really going to feel it, and we may well see an example of such here. I couldn’t really argue with the notion that Fortuna Dusseldorf have the marginally better squad but what Paderborn 07 lack in quality, they make up for in work-rate. Without an army of fans at their backs, there’s a chance that Fortuna Dusseldorf will struggle to cope with such, and considering that this is a huge fixture in the relegation battle, it really is a disadvantage for the home team.
To put things into perspective, if Paderborn 07 fail to win this match, they’ll be at least six points from safety with just two or three winnable games remaining in the current campaign. Hell, if they lose this match, they’ll be nine points from safety. Therefore, it’s absolutely essential that they put up a good fight today. There really isn’t an alternative. What I find interesting is that this little break over the past couple of months has most likely benefited them. I mean, star attacker Mamba is fit enough to be named in the travelling squad today, and I have to believe he’ll play some part in this fixture. Most of all, though, I think Paderborn 07 desperately needed a break when it happened. All season long, they’ve hurt teams via their energy and fearless attacking. Around February/March time, that rapidly dissipated, and the team started to play as if it had already been consigned to relegation. A lengthy break might just be what it takes to save their season; let’s wait and see there.
Of course, there are plenty of variants to consider for all games at the moment so I certainly won’t be placing my head on the chopping block for Paderborn 07. Let’s just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if they bucked the ‘recent’ form guide today. They’ve got the balls for it, and the attacking speed too. It’ll take a resolute defensive display from the hosts to stop them, and even Germany’s best teams have generally failed to do that this season. Beating Paderborn 07 usually requires a lot of goals to be scored. Given that they can’t defend well – ever – that’s not particularly hard to do. Outscoring them is generally extremely problematic though, because of their infectious energy levels and sheer athleticism in the final third. Therefore, I can see them causing their hosts problems here, whether they get the win that they desperately need or not.
Ironically enough, I think that the break in play came at a bad time for Fortuna Dusseldorf. They’d been putting in some very solid displays, which surprised me because they didn’t do enough in the transfer window, and their early season displays were nowhere near effectual enough. They weren’t bad, per se, but they didn’t convert chances well enough. If it weren’t for an extremely unexpected top campaign from Hennings up front, they’d probably be worse off than Paderborn 07 right now, in truth. However, since bringing in Kosovan attacking threat Berisha, and since getting Sobottka back to fitness, Fortuna Dusseldorf have been a lot better in the final third, especially Turkish attacker Karaman. Whether it’s the fear of losing their places in the squad or simply the addition of some much needed flair, Fortuna Dusseldorf look like the team that they intended to be at the start of the campaign i.e. disciplined, hard-working, and dangerous. They’re not especially good, not individually, but collectively they’ve become respectable. Their positive results had given them more confidence too, so they were a team it was easier to back than oppose – until the pandemic struck. What Fortuna Dusseldorf will return now, I really don’t know. I certainly think that the bookies are playing a dangerous game by making them as strong favourites as they are.
Anyway, I think the form guide goes out of the window here. These two teams haven’t kicked a ball for many weeks now, and variants may affect this fixture that none of us know anything about (e.g. personal lives affected by Covid-19). However, both teams are mentally strong, and both give a shit. That makes me think we’ll see a committed game here, and given the significance of the match (as neither team can afford to let this one slip by), I’m expecting goals. I’m not bold enough to touch the 1×2 market right now though, at least not for this game, as there are too many unknowns. I’d be surprised if it didn’t go over 2.5 goals though.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
German Bundesliga:
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Paderborn 07
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04
Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel
Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum vs Heidenheim
Erzgebirge Aue vs SV Sandhausen
Faroese Betrideildin:
TB vs KI
Enjoy your free betting tips!