Mainz 05 vs TSG Hoffenheim
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Today’s free tip is in the German Bundesliga encounter between Mainz 05 and TSG Hoffenheim. Mainz 05 are trying to survive in the relegation dogfight and every point counts for them more than usual because of it. TSG Hoffenheim, however, are harbouring hopes of playing European football next season, not that their recent form supports such. It’s fair to say that neither team is firing on all cylinders at the moment but for my money, backing Mainz 05 makes sense here.
Although TSG Hoffenheim enter this game on the back of a win against Koln, I wasn’t at all convinced by their display. Their absentee list isn’t helping matters, of course, but it’s more than that. This team is not playing well. They look laboured, unconvincing, and inconsistent. Their route to goal seems to be questionable at the best of times, and were it not for a surprisingly incisive first-half against Koln last time out, they would not have won that game as they were horrendous in the second-half.
TSG Hoffenheim have the better team here, to be fair, but unless they’re proving it on the park, I find it hard to take them seriously. There’s always a chance that a bit of a momentum might kick them into life, which they desperately need right now. However, with numerous attackers out (Adamyan, Kramaric, Belfodil) and little by way of natural creativity in midfield, I’m really struggling to envision Bebou, Dabbur, and Bruun Larsen doing what they’re all capable of. To be fair to Bebou, I’ve really liked what he’s shown this season, but the other two are yet to convince me at TSG Hoffenheim for different reasons. They’ve got enough grafters, TSG Hoffenheim, and there’s no shortage of desire to get forward, but I’m not at all convinced by their final third play. I can’t see this team winning many games between now and the end of the season, to put it bluntly.
TSG Hoffenheim are the better side here, as I’ve said, but Mainz 05 are more convincing, in my opinion. Sure, the home team has shortcomings but I tend to know what I get from them in each game. They’re not good enough defensively, but offensively they’ve become rather good, especially since Szalai returned. No, the Hungarian veteran hasn’t bagged many but he’s about more than that in his latter years – movement, awareness, vision, and general intelligence. Someone like that makes space for Onisiwo, Quaison, Boetius etc. breaking through with speed and dribbling. That’s how Mainz 05 hurt teams. Before Szalai returned to his old stomping ground, they were a bit headless chicken-esque but they look more dangerous now they’ve got a focal point, even if that focal point isn’t really there to score goals.
Since February, Mainz 05 have truly embraced the relegation battle, which has afforded me a lot of faith in them. Sure, top teams have beaten them, but they’ve always given each game their all. They’ve shipped goals too regularly for me to back them very often but they always seem to score them too. Despite facing similarly desperate teams of late, Mainz 05 have generally held their own and looked dangerous. It’s always risky to trust a team of this nature to actually win a game because of their defensive vulnerability but with draw no bet, I feel happy enough to take a chance here.
Again, neither team is in a great place at the moment but Mainz 05 are at least doing everything they can to get out of it. I suspect this game will be down to which team bags the most goals (as obvious as that sounds!) and based on performances over the past few months, I have to believe that Mainz 05 have a better chance of scoring more here than TSG Hoffenheim so I’ll take my chances on Mainz 05 winning with draw no bet cover at evens.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to win with draw no bet at evens.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Croatian Cup:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Marila Pribram
Slovan Liberec vs Slovacko
Zlin vs Banik Ostrava
Viktoria Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Slavia Prague vs Baumit Jablonec
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn vs Tallinna Kalev
Kuressaare vs Trans Narva
Legion vs Tammeka
German Bundesliga:
Hertha Berlin vs Augsburg
Mainz 05 vs TSG Hoffenheim
Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Nurnberg vs VfL Bochum
SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Ujpest
Diosgyori VTK vs Mezokovesd-Zsory
Paksi SE vs Fehervar
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Rieterai
Banga Gargzdai vs FK Panevezys
Enjoy your free betting tips!