America vs Tijuana 

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Today’s free tip is in the Mexican Liga MX encounter between America and Tijuana.

The one word that is consistently synonymous with Mexican powerhouses America is ‘stubborn’. Sometimes that can be channelled into a positive, but often America manage to make it into a negative. My opinion is that tonight’s game will prove to be another negative for them.

You see, they’re facing Tijuana, a team that only really has the capacity to counter-attack. Unless they’re facing slow defenders in a team that attacks them, Tijuana are usually pretty useless. A slow, possession-based game here would almost certainly see America win the match, even with their numerous absentees. There’s not a chance that they’ll do it that way though. It’s not their style. Their style is to throw everybody forward and to try and score goals – so they do. To be fair to America, they are good at playing that way, even with dos Santos, Ibarguen etc. out. With such a talented manager like Herrera at the helm, that cannot be considered a surprise. This approach against Tijuana is risky though, and it’s a risk they shouldn’t really be taking – but will.

Key defender Aguilera and holding midfielder Caseres are both out for tonight’s game, making it even less likely that America will be able to contain Tijuana here. They’re not defensively steady anyway, other than when it comes to very basic situations, but that’s the nail in the coffin lid here. If they get out of this game without conceding twice, they’ll have done bloody well, America. They don’t tend to struggle to show their superiority against Tijuana though, and their firepower will still give them a decent chance of winning the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a closer game than it usually is, circumstances considered.

Visitors Tijuana enter this game on the back of a surprising win over Atlas last time around. Well, the bookies might not have been surprised, but I was. It was the kind of game they’d normally struggle in but Atlas seemed intent on making it easy for them, and succeeded in doing so, losing 3-1. As is always the case with Tijuana, you know precisely what they’re going to do in each of their games. Sometimes it works out for them, and sometimes it doesn’t. I refuse to believe that there’s any real long-term plan for Tijuana because that indication is never given by anything they do on or off the pitch. However, they’re a pretty painful side play against, especially in the Liga MX, because most teams will have a go at them – and so will America.

Tijuana literally don’t have a choice here. There’s a reason that they only invest substantially in fast forwards and strong holding midfielders because they’re all about winning the ball back and using it swiftly. That does come with negatives as they’re never far away from red cards, and they’re also utterly incapable of breaking teams down that defend well. This type of game, though – it suits their style. Their lack of quality isn’t going to help, and they do tend to get battered by America away from home, but the style of game is to their liking. That, coupled with America’s absentees, makes me wonder if a shock is on the cards in Mexico tonight.

Whether it’s the customary America demolition job, or whether Tijuana turn up and give them a game, I expect a high-scoring match though. Therefore, I’m on over 3 goals at 6/5, and keeping my fingers crossed that the almost inevitable red cards borne out of frustration come later in the game.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 6/5.

Saturday’s Thoughts

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City vs Sydney FC

Belgian Cup:

Club Brugge vs Antwerp 

Croatian Cup:

Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb

English FA Cup:

Arsenal vs Chelsea 

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Legion vs Flora Paide
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare 

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn
HJK vs KuPS 
Ilves vs HIFK 
RoPS vs TPS 
SJK vs Haka Valkeakoski 

Finnish Ykkonen:

Ekenas IF vs KTP
VPS vs KPV 
MyPa vs Kajaani 
AC Oulu vs Jaro Pietarsaari

Italian Serie A:

Brescia vs Sampdoria 
AC Milan vs Cagliari 
Atalanta Bergamo vs Internazionale
SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio
Juventus vs AS Roma 

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Banga Gargzdai vs Riteriai

Mexican Liga MX:

America vs Tijuana 
Tigres UANL vs Pachuca 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Sandefjord vs Molde FK 
Brann Bergen vs Valerenga Oslo

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sol de America vs Nacional Asuncion 
Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani Asuncion 

Portuguese Taca de Portugal:

SL Benfica vs FC Porto 

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Djurgarden vs BK Hacken Goteborg
Orebro vs Falkenberg

Enjoy your free betting tips!