Sydney FC vs Western United
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League match between Sydney FC and Western United. This game is not a derby, but there’s usually a touch of spice whenever Sydney faces Melbourne at anything so keep that in mind here.
For me though, this is a dead rubber game. Sydney FC have already nailed top spot, and Western United have achieved a play-off place. Quite where the visitors finish doesn’t really matter; they’ll still have the same type of opponent in the play-offs. Even if you for some reason believe that Western United are desperate to finish above Perth Glory, you should be aware that only one point (from Western United’s two remaining games) is required in order to do so, assuming that one of the two teams that they’re facing doesn’t pulverise them, which again seems unlikely with no motivation for them to do so.
You have to appreciate that the A-League has been specifically setup so that games are played once a week; that’s how it’s always been. Subsequently, most squads are only capable of fielding a starting eleven; there’s no real rotation. Therefore, playing every three or four days has already had a serious impact on most teams, Sydney FC included. The Sky Blues have been the most intelligent of the lot though, as per usual, not even attempting to win most of their recent games as they’ve focused on conserving energy. Western United haven’t had that luxury; they’ve had to play well in order to get a play-off place. Now is an opportunity for them to rotate their squad though, and I don’t see Rudan missing that opportunity.
Indeed, the Western United boss has already declared that Socceroo international Josh Risdon will not play. They’ve said he’s carrying a niggle from the other night but I doubt it; he’s been substituted a lot lately because he’s played a lot of football, and he’s a big part of both the Western United attack and defence. I would not be surprised if Diamanti only got sixty minutes here either, or if Berisha did. Western United need to keep fit for the knockout stage of the play-offs so it only makes sense. Don’t get me wrong; I expect Rudan to start with a strong side here. If he plays his “B” team, Western United will get battered. However, I do expect some more ‘telling’ substitutions as the game goes on because Western United don’t need anything from this match. If they do take this game too seriously, they’re going to be too knackered in the play-offs, and they’ll go out. I don’t see Western United being stupid enough to do that here.
Sydney FC are at full-strength here with Zullo and Grant now back. I’d be surprised if either of them completed the full ninety here though. The way Corica has cleverly done it in recent games is to get his team to give a shit for the first forty-five minutes, to-and-fro for fifteen minutes, and then sit back and soak it up for the rest of the game. They’ve not won any games playing that way, but then again, they’ve not needed to. During each game, he’s rested some of his best players for at least a third of the game. The benefits of it won’t be seen today either; it’ll be seen when they play that one-off final in a fortnight because their players will be rested; their opponents will not be able to say the same.
I do think it’s more likely that Sydney FC will win this game than Western United, but it should all ultimately hinge upon how the first-half goes because nobody is going to do much to try and win this one unless they’re incredibly stupid. For my money, Rudan is a better tactician than Corica, but Corica has better players available to him. I suspect these two teams will spend a portion of time feeling one another out, and may make some half-hearted attempts to try and score goals. It’d take some really bizarre circumstances for this match to become a high-scoring bonanza though, especially with both teams very confident in their ability to control games and sit on leads.
Therefore, I’m happy to back under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Champions League 19/20:
Manchester City vs Olympique Lyonnais
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Western United
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs OH Leuven
AA Gent vs Kortrijk
Sporting Charleroi vs KV Oostende
Brazilian Serie A:
Gremio vs Corinthians
Coritiba vs Flamengo
Palmeiras vs Goias
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa
Arda vs Levski Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Sibenik
NK Osijek vs Slaven Koprivnica
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Legion vs Nomme Kalju
Tulevik vs Flora Paide
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK vs FC Honka Espoo
Ilves vs SJK
Finnish Ykkonen:
KTP vs VPS
MuSa vs AC Oulu
Hungarian Liga 1:
Paksi SE vs Ujpest
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Valur Reykjavik vs KA
IA vs Fylkir Reykjavik
Mexican Liga MX:
Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis
Cruz Azul vs Juarez
Mazatlán vs Pumas UNAM
Monterrey vs Necaxa
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde FK
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow vs Rotor Volgograd
Rubin Kazan vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast
CSKA Moscow vs Tambov
Lokomotiv Moscow vs FK Krasnodar
FK Rostov vs Zenit St. Petersburg
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Djurgarden
Enjoy your free betting tips!