Toluca vs Guadalajara
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Tonight’s free tip is in the Mexican Liga MX encounter between Toluca and Guadalajara.
Ordinarily this would be a high-scoring bonanza with both teams playing pretty well at the moment, and both teams far more revered for their attacking than their defending. However, a couple of elements have changed my mind on such occurring here, although as is always the case with Mexican football, it’s not something I’d entirely write off!
The first factor was the introduction of manager Vucetich at Guadalajara. They were at rock-bottom when he joined with numerous players out with Covid-19, and not a particularly good squad to boot. Since he’s come in though, their performances have improved significantly. They beat a very solid Juarez team 2-0 away from home before beating Atletico San Luis 2-1 at home last time out. Their goal-scoring has impressed me because that’s something that was seriously alien to them earlier in the campaign. However, it’s Vucetich’s surprisingly defensive approach that is paying dividends for Guadalajara. It remains to be seen how the locals take it, a Guadalajara side playing defensively, but I’m sure they’d take wins however they come at the moment.
The other factor is that Toluca are without their star man of recent times, Alexis Canelo, who is out with Covid-19. The Argentinian attacking midfielder has bagged five goals in five appearances, and setup a lot of chances for his teammates too. Toluca do not have a deep enough squad to cope without him, to be frank, no matter how well they’ve been playing of late – well, at least in attack. Sambueza is still worthy of respect; a real class act, even though his speedy days are behind him. Bustling Estrada will make his presence felt too, I’m sure. Triverio’s poor displays of late fused with the potential absence of Antuna and Vega (both doubtful) is most inconvenient too. Without Canelo, they lack their main link-up man, and that’s not something that is ideal against a Guadalajara team that is rapidly learning how to shut teams out.
Guadalajara are the bigger name here; that goes without saying. There’s not a great deal of difference between the two teams in general but circumstances play a big part here. Toluca’s recent performances have only been good from an attacking perspective. From a defensive perspective, they’re arguably the worst team in the Liga MX, and they’re showing zero signs of improvement in that area. It’s their attack that is carrying them, and Canelo’s absence is making their attack-minded approach a pretty kamikaze one at this time, especially given how challenging it is now becoming to bag against Guadalajara.
The away team are very confident ahead of this game. I appreciate that’s the default setting of Guadalajara anyway, whether that faith is misplaced or not, but they’ve actually got something to build upon now. Furthermore, most of the players they’ve been missing are now back in the squad and making a substantial difference to Guadalajara’s fortunes. I still don’t think the away team are especially good, and their recent ‘bounce’ will ultimately stop in due course because of it. For now though, they’re riding the crest of a wave, and everything is going their way. Vucetich’s tactics are working, they’re surprising teams, and they’re actually converting opportunities for a change. Against a disadvantaged Toluca side tonight, that should prove decisive.
For me, the away win with draw no bet cover is worth backing at evens.
Verdict: Guadalajara to win with draw no bet at evens.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Champions League:
Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Western United
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk
Club Brugge vs Beerschot-Wilrijk
RSC Anderlecht vs Royal Excel Mouscron
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Botafogo
Vasco da Gama vs Gremio
Palmeiras vs Santos
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba
Ceara vs Bahia
Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Tsarsko selo
Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Hajduk Split
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Karvina vs Banik Ostrava
Baumit Jablonec vs Pardubice
Ceske Budejovice vs Slavia Prague
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Legion vs Flora Tallinn
Faroese Betrideildin:
TB vs Skala
EB/Streymur vs AB
IF vs Vikingur Gota
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HIFK vs Haka Valkeakoski
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs MuSa
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Stade de Reims
Lorient vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Nimes Olympique vs Stade Brestois
OGC Nice vs Racing Club Lens
Hungarian Liga 1:
Ujpest vs Budafoki MTE
Mexican Liga MX:
Tolucavs Guadalajara
Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul
Tijuana vs Puebla
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sportivo Luqueno vs General Diaz
Sol de America vs Guarena
Russian Premier League:
FK Ufa vs FK Rostov
Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Ostersunds FK
Malmo FF vs Falkenberg
AIK Solna vs Helsingborg
Varberg vs Orebro
Enjoy your free betting tips!