Corinthians vs Fortaleza
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter in Sao Paulo between Corinthians and Fortaleza.
Over the years, Corinthians have transformed from a Serie A powerhouse into consistent bottlers. They’ve played some of the most unattractive Serie A football since the Gusmao days, and it’s not through a lack of quality either. The club seemed to think they could grind their way through each title race but that’s just not possible in Brazil for a variety of reasons. It took them a long time to figure that out, but Corinthians have finally changed their ways.
Instead of solely investing in the odd attacking player whilst largely focusing on defending, Corinthians are now putting the majority of their outlay into signing attacking players. All that remains of their defensive era is an ageing defence, who will depart in due course. Corinthians have set their stall out to be an entertaining team, and I like that idea. They’ve got the quality to pull it off too. I still class them as mentally weak team, and their recent defeat in Belo Horizonte perfectly reflects why I have that opinion.
Still, with an attack like theirs, Corinthians should win more than they lose this season, and hosting Fortaleza is certainly not beyond them. They’re going to have to work hard, and that’s sometimes a bit of a stumbling block for Tiago Nunes’ men, but they’ve got the firepower to win games without necessarily playing well. I don’t know how long this ‘fad’ of theirs will last; I hope it’s forever, but they’re a results-based club so they may turn chicken at some point. For now though, Corinthians are involved in far more over 2.5 goals Serie A games than under 2.5 goals games, and the above is why.
To think that they didn’t pair Vagner Love and Jo for their Serie A campaign, though! How long is it since they were at CSKA Moscow together now – 13 years? Both have returned to Brazil as class acts, and their fans got to watch them both in the local championships. However, Vagner Love has darted to Kazakhstan for a swansong with Kairat Almaty but Jo is still there at least. Boselli, Luan, Araos, and even controller Otero – they’re all helping Cornithians speed up their attacking, and to become better at it overall. It’s a good time if you’re a Corinthians fan, that’s for sure, and as much as I class the Sao Paulo juggernauts as bottlers, they shouldn’t be priced as long as they are to beat an inferior team tonight.
Fortaleza are natural battlers, and they’re going to have to stay that way if they intend on avoiding relegation this season. They’ve already annoyed most teams they’ve faced with dogged determination and good organisation. I doubt their performance tonight will be any different either. The problem they’ve got here is that they’re not really well equipped for more open football because they lack natural creativity. In Wellington Paulista, Osvaldo, and Edson Carius, they’ve got players that will put themselves about and get into the right positions, which is half of the battle.
However, Fortaleza just don’t do enough in the final third to concern me. They rely more on their tactics than their ability, and although that approach makes sense for them, it’s still not ideal for tough games like this. They’re going to try and unsettle Corinthians enough to force them into mistakes at the back, and they’ll probably have some joy playing that way. Are they really going to contain this Corinthians attack for ninety minutes though? I doubt it. They tried that on their last visit to Sao Paulo, and lost 1-0 a couple of weeks back. That’s the danger of playing this way – if you don’t take your chances, and you concede along the way, you jeopardise picking up points. The same problem exists for Fortaleza tonight.
Corinthians are also the bogey team of Fortaleza too; I don’t think Fortaleza have even avoided defeat against them since 2006, home or away. I don’t think that record will change tonight either, not now the sounds coming out of the Corinthians camp are that they’ll be attacking more often. For me, the home win is worth taking at 83/100.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 83/100.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Champions League:
AZ Alkmaar vs Viktoria Plzen
Qarabagh FK vs Sheriff Tiraspol
Suduva Marijampole vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Celje vs Molde FK
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rapid Vienna
Ludogorets Razgradvs FC Midtjylland
Legia Warsaw vs Omonia Nicosia
Dinamo Brest vs FK Sarajevo
CFR Cluj vs Dinamo Zagreb
Young Boys Bern vs KI
Celtic vs Ferencvaros
UEFA Europa League:
Progres Niederkorn vs Zeta Golubovci
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Western United
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Athletico Paraanense
Corinthians vs Fortaleza
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Lahti
HJK vs SJK
IFK Mariehamn vs RoPS
TPS vs HIFK
Finnish Ykkonen:
MyPa vs MP
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IA vs Valur Reykjavik
HK vs Grotta
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Guarena vs Cerro Porteno
12 de Octubre vs Olimpia Asuncion
Russian Premier League:
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny
Rubin Kazan vs FK Ufa
Rotor Volgograd vs Spartak Moscow
FK Rostov vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast
FK Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg
Enjoy your free betting tips!