Botafogo vs Palmeiras
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Botafogo and Palmeiras in Rio de Janeiro.
The Serie A table portrays Palmeiras to be the far better of these two teams, and I couldn’t really argue with the notion that the Sao Paulo juggernauts are indeed the better side. However, quality gaps in Brazil – barring Flamengo – don’t really exist. What I mean is that most teams in this division can beat one another, and it only tends to take one or two signings to dramatically change the course of a campaign for teams. Botafogo have been unfortunate enough to lose some players to injury lately, one of which is star Japanese playmaker Honda. They’ll be back though, and I certainly would not treat them as bottom three material.
It’s easy to get carried away with big games in leagues but again, this is not a division where teams are far too good for the others. I mean, I’d personally say that some of the best football in Serie A this season has been played by RB Bragantino, Fortaleza, Atletico Mineiro, and Bahia – and you would not think of most of them, looking at the table. As always, watch the games, folks. Anyone making a bet, or providing a tip, based purely off of statistics is not going to do well in general because they’ve no idea why things happen. Watching games will give you that edge.
Anyway, I digress; I think Botafogo are going to trouble Palmeiras tonight. The +0.5 Asian Handicap did get a long look from me because Palmeiras are priced too short to win this one. I still don’t think Botafogo will lose the game, but it’s a riskier thing to trust in than the simple equation of both teams scoring, which both teams essentially need to try and do, given that this is indeed a game of football, and Botafogo bizarrely find themselves in the relegation zone whereas Palmeiras are in the title race.
So – why do I doubt Palmeiras now? Simple, really – availability. The Brazilian FA take great pleasure in still playing matches when there are international games being played at the same time. As the years go by, this affects Brazilian football clubs more and more. For tonight’s game, Palmeiras aren’t just without Luan and Esteves, the latter of which is a traditional physio room merchant at the moment, but they’re also without Gomez, Weverton, Vina, and Gabriel Menino. In plain English, that’s three of their back four, plus their goalkeeper all out, plus their wonderkid holding midfielder – one through injury, and the others through international call-ups for Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay respectively. Considering that Palmeiras rely heavily upon their defensive structure to get themselves through matches, they’re pretty heavy losses, all things considered.
The reason I doubt opposing Palmeiras is that their attack is still untouched, and there’s nobody that can convince me that Luiz Adriano, Willian, Veiga, Veron, de Paula, Ze Rafael, Ramires, last season’s hero Henrique, or even bit-part Scarpa can’t win this match for the visitors – because they can. I think they’ll need to cobble together two or three goals in order to manage it, but they’re good enough. Half the battle at this level is finding someone with composure in front of goal, and they’ve got that person in Luiz Adriano. That’s what deterred me from backing the home team here, even though I still don’t think they’ll lose tonight.
Botafogo are not without complications of their own tonight either, as I alluded to earlier in the preview. Honda is out, as I said, and he’s joined on the sidelines by Fernandez, Marcinho, Santos, and Barros. Fernandez has been their number one goalkeeper for a good month or so now but has been called up by Paraguay. Most of the others are familiar faces in the physio’s room anyway, but this depth situation is not aiding Botafogo’s campaign. They’ve still got some quality players to work with, but this is not a team that is winning enough games.
Botafogo have been deceptively good at avoiding defeat this season though. They’ve perfected the art of scoring goals against teams that come at them, which is the style of most Serie A clubs, really. Palmeiras, though – not so much. They will attack tonight because they’ve no alternative with almost all of their defensive regulars out, but it’s not their preferred style at all. Ordinarily, I’d expect Palmeiras to edge this one by virtue of tactics – but not tonight.
As long as the hosts can get the best out of Kalou, and that their fast forwards actually stop and thinking about their placement when they get in front of goal, they’ll give Palmeiras a few things to think about tonight in terms of scoring goals. I honestly don’t see either team being able to contain the other here, so it literally should be all about composure. Palmeiras have more of it, but Botafogo are mentally strong, and tenacious on the park, so I would not write them off. If pushed, I would say that Botafogo will get something from this match but I much prefer to roll with both teams to score at 93/100.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 93/100.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
International Friendlies:
Armenia vs Albania
Estonia vs Lithuania
Montenegro vs Latvia
Malta vs Gibraltar
Luxembourg vs Liechtenstein
Denmark vs Faroe Islands
Cyprus vs Czech Republic
Austria vs Greece
Poland vs Finland
Slovenia vs San Marino
Italy vs Moldova
Switzerland vs Croatia
Andorra vs Cape Verde Islands
Germany vs Turkey
Netherlands vs Mexico
Portugal vs Spain
France vs Ukraine
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Andorra vs England
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Santos
Flamengo vs Sport Recife
Gremio vs Coritiba
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense
Goias vs Fluminense
Botafogo vs Palmeiras
Fortaleza vs Atletico Mineiro
Enjoy your free betting tips!