FC Porto vs Manchester City
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Pep Guardiola has already said he’s not going to rush Aguero back after his injury, and I can understand that. Guardiola knows his importance to this team. It’s not a coincidence that they’ve scored a lot fewer goals whilst the Argentinian poacher has been out; he’s an outstanding marksman, and there is no replacement for him in this squad of theirs. Subsequently, I’m inclined to expect a Manchester City display in Portugal tonight that is more akin to most others they’ve shown over the past few weeks as opposed to the massacre against Burnley, which came out exclusively because of the most atrocious defending I’ve ever seen from the Lancashire outfit.
Besides, a trip to the Dragao – with or without fans – is very tough, and Guardiola has been around long enough to know it. The home team is experienced, organised, and good on the ball. Many, many good teams have been felled by FC Porto at this venue in the past, and although I don’t think the current FC Porto team is especially good, I do recognise that they’re the kind of well-oiled machine to particularly piss Manchester City off. I mean, let’s be fair – they did it in Manchester in the reversal of this fixture. Two set pieces was all that gave Manchester City the victory. Fair play to them for managing it, but it was a close tactical battle, and one that could have gone either way. Manchester City’s quality advantage shone through in the end, but by no means was it easy.
Now the visitors head to Portugal knowing that they’re already through to the next round, and that a draw will guarantee them top spot. With that in mind, I’m struggling to accept that they’re going to have any real ‘intent’ of winning this game, if that makes sense. I think they’ll sit back and counterattack, and maybe that’ll be enough for them to win – they sure are fast enough to pull it off. Given how good Guardiola’s teams are at keeping the ball though, I’m more inclined to believe that counterattacking opportunities will be limited because I don’t see FC Porto winning the ball back often enough for it to happen, so I suspect a draw is the most likely outcome here.
Besides – would FC Porto complain about a draw? Absolutely not. Sure, winning the group most likely grants them an easier fixture in the next round but let’s be fair – all opponents are going to be tough for FC Porto in the next round; the main thing is to simply be in it. A draw tonight would make the other group stage game redundant, at least for them, as it would be impossible for Olympiakos Piraeus to catch them, which would make next week’s trip to Athens that bit more enjoyable. To put it bluntly, I really don’t think FC Porto are going to try too hard to beat Manchester City here, whether they manage it or not.
The home team are likely to focus on their defensive shape more than anything here, and not just because defeat would be pretty damaging either, but also because they need to try to cover the absence of Pepe – and Grujic, for that matter, with the Serbian having collected a very stupid second yellow card in Marseille last week. Again, there’s no real reason to believe that FC Porto will try to win this one with bold plays. I suspect that they’re more likely to hope that one of their individuals produces something from nowhere whether it’s Corona, Marega, Diaz etc.
Overall, I think that the draw suits both teams here, and both are smart enough to play for it. Therefore, I’m on under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Tuesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Champions League:
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Salzburg
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Internazionale
FC Porto vs Manchester City
Olympique de Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Liverpool vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
Atalanta Bergamo vs FC Midtjylland
Copa Libertadores:
River Plate vs Athletico Paranaense
Santos vs Liga de Quito
Flamengo vs Racing Club Avellaneda
Copa Sudamericana:
Union de Santa Fe vs Bahia
Deportivo Cali vs Velez Sarsfield
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Sint-Truiden
Portuguese Liga 1:
Moreirense vs Pacos de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2:
Chaves vs Casa Pia
Swiss Challenge League:
Winterthur vs Chiasso
Neuchatel Xamax vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
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